April 12

Two-for-Three / Both "BEST" Bets!

I had been looking forward to today for most of the week because today in Keeneland's feature race 2012 Horse-of-the-Year Wise Dan made his return to the races to kick off his 2013 season.  He wasn't running in a "prep" or "gimme" spot either, he was in the Grade 1 Maker's 46 Mile which featured multiple stakes winners.  Granted, if he ran his race he was the best.  But considering he had not run since his championship / record-setting victory in the Grade 1 Breeders' Cup Mile in November AND that he was only about 90% cranked up there was some concern.  Especially with the defending champion of this race, Data Link, in the field and he had run and won two graded stakes at Gulfstream this winter.  Wise Dan was 1/5 when then went into the gate and that was the price he deserved to be I thought.  But when they hit the far turn he clicked up to 2/5, which I thought was giving away money.  He moved easily to the lead while three wide and cleared into the stretch.  But then here came Data Link on his outside with all the momentum.  Jockey Jose Lezcano (substituting for injured John Velazquez) asked him to run and Wise Dan easily spurted clear and held him safe by over two lengths!  I had debated for two days about betting a little, or betting a lot, or betting in between.  But when I made the bet I went "all-in" - $50 to WIN!  I was handsomely rewarded for my confidence!  WHOOO HOOO!  

I also was looking forward to seeing Grace Hall run in the Grade 1 Apple Blossom today.  But I had much less confidence in her.  I agreed with the TV analysts that while I did not expect her to beat Royal Delta in the Grade 3 Sabin earlier at Gulfstream I was disappointed in her lack of punch.  I waited until five minutes to post time debating about bet-no bet, little bet-no bet.  And I told myself that if I still was unsure at this point I should just watch.  But I decided to bet.....shouldn't have....she ran flat :(  But I was excited to learn this past Wednesday that in the middle of the night (3:30 am EST) the unbeaten mare Black Caviar would put her 24 race unbeaten streak on the line in the $1 Million Group 1 T.J. Smith Stakes in Sydney, Australia.  We were just there a year ago!  

And according to all accounts this was the toughest field she had ever faced.  But I also read that trainer Peter Moody said he was nearly certain she was "lengths" better than any of her rivals and that she was training as well, or better than she'd ever run.  I couldn't decide, again, how deep to go in on her.  But I finally decided since I wasn't watching live (though I can't tell why this would matter, but it did!) I would go "prime time" but not "all in."  $30 to win.  And she was rated in fourth until they straightened for home, and then with a burst that was electric to watch she blew by them in a hand ride!  WHOOO HOOO!  Winner, winner, chicken dinner!  

So for the week I went three-for-four in selective stakes action :)

Wise Dan's Grade 1 Maker's 46 Mile WIN

 

Black Caviar Wins 25th In A Row in $1 Million Group 1 T.J. Smith

April 10

Oaklawn Festival of Racing

Today I began my "selective summer betting" program.  Much as I've done in the fall racing season, I am determined to back away from the day-to-day handicapping that has characterized the winter as I handicapped every card at Gulfstream from December 1 to April 5.  I was tempted to get the card for Oaklawn today, and/or the card for Keeneland for tomorrow, but then stuck to my guns.  I like Rose To Gold in the Grade 3 Fantasy Stakes today, the feature at Oaklawn kicking off their Festival of Racing.  This is one of the final preps for the Kentucky Oaks.  I not only liked her chances because she had been impressive in winning the Honey Bee, the local prep for this, but I also was drawn to her because she had begun her career locally at Calder.  And now here she was on the verge of being a national star!  I watched the DRF video analysis yesterday with Mike Beer and Dan Illman, and both were pretty emphatic that Rose to Gold was CLEARLY the horse to beat and that unless she had an off day or one of the others made HUGE improvement she was a most likely winner.  That confirmed what I thought.  When I tuned in on HRTV I was mildly concerned with the off-going, but she was being bet heavily.  She went right to the front and had mild pressure to the backside, but then she was loose on the lead.  When they hit the far turn the others were running their hearts out and the jockeys were riding their fillies hard.  Meanwhile Calvin Borel sat motionless on Rose To Gold.  When heads turned for home she was L-O-N-G gone.  WHOOO HOOOO!  No picks tomorrow, but I am looking forward to Grace Hall in the Grade 1 Apple Blossom and Wise Dan in the Grade 1 Maker's Mark Mile at Keeneland.

 

April 9

Beyers For Saturday's Winners

The Week Ahead

Today in the Daily Racing Form was the day that the weekend's stakes winners had their photos published with the Beyer Speed figures they earned.  Some casual fans who do not understand how speed figures are made would look at the numbers and conclude that the winner of the local Calder Derby was about three lengths faster than Kentucky Derby favorite and Wood Memorial winner, the undefeated Verrazano (98 - 95 Beyers).  But that's half of using the Beyers, taking them with an understanding of how they are made and understanding that they cannot be used simply as raw numbers.  

A look ahead for the week - this week is the "Festival of Racing" at Oaklawn Park.  Wednesday is the Grade 3 Fantasy, one of the last preps for the Grade 1 Kentucky Oaks.  I will look to play that race.  Friday is the Grade 1 Apple Blossom which features one of my favorite fillies, Grace Hall.  I will also look to play that race.  At Keeneland on Friday is the Grade 1 Maker's Mark Mile on the turf.  This race will be the 2013 debut of Horse of the Year, Wise Dan.  I will be ALL OVER Wise Dan!  Then this Saturday there are several races that I will look forward to playing...... I will be at Calder where their feature will be the Calder Oaks.  It is a huge day at Keeneland, it's Grade 1 Bluegrass Stakes Day.  And while I will probably have a selection there are several other stakes that I will look forward to even more, in particular the Grade 1 Madison which may mark the return of Groupie Doll to the races; and the Grade 1 Jenny Wiley on the turf is shaping up as something special.  At Oaklawn it is Grade 1 Arkansas Derby Day.  And they have three stakes on the undercard.  

Here are my winners from last weekend.......... 

 Verazzano - Grade 1 Wood Memorial  

Close Hatches - Grade 2 Gazelle  

Beholder - Grade 1 Santa Anita Oaks  

Emollient - Grade 1 Ashland  

Scarlet Strike - Grade 3 La Providencia

April 6 - OPENING DAY

A SUPERB First Day of Summer Racing!

I couldn't have asked for a better start to the summer racing season!  Today not only marked the beginning of the spring/summer racing season but it was also a H-U-G-E day on the national scene as it was the final day of preps for the Kentucky Derby and Kentucky Oaks.  As such both Aqueduct and Santa Anita were having multiple stakes race cards, and I had selections in most.  

I arrived at Calder and found the facility to be very crowded (by Calder standards) and walked up to my favorite "Calder lady" teller who welcomed me back.  And I made my first three bets of the summer.  My first pick was at Calder in their opener.  My pick was Kanavayen, who was first off the claim for Team Calabrese and trainer Kirk Ziadie.  That's a nearly 40% winning angle.  The crowd was also on to this and bet him down to 2/5.  Wasn't going to pay much, but I doubled the bet.  At Aqueduct, Lovely Sin looked equally imposing as she her maiden win figured at least ten lengths quicker than any of her rivals and had nearly equaled a Grade 3 sprint on the same card.  Even with a regression - normal for first time against winners - she looked like she would win by daylight.  The two races went off simultaneously so I was on the rail to watch Kanavayen destroy the field in the opener at Calder.....whooo hooo!  Walked in and saw Lovely Syn running away from her rivals through the stretch.  That's how you start the summer racing season!  Five minutes later in the opener at Keeneland I had looked at two runners.  My first instinct had been to go with Longhunter - he is on my "DRF Watch List" after having romped in a grass stakes race at Gulfstream two winters ago, but he's struggled since.  Today he was going on Keeneland's synthetic main track, which often plays like turf, and he looked like the main speed.  I looked at my other choice, Kingsford Drive and figured him to be the favorite, so I circled Longhunter and wrote my comment.  I went to the "Graded Entries" to make the notation and noted that DRF's Steve Klein had picked Kingsford Drive, as had all the other selectors.  Hmmm.  I went back and took a second look - Kingsford Drive was first off the claim for Michael Maker and owners Ken & Sarah Ramsey.....oh.  And then I considered how Keeneland is typically the graveyard for front-runners.  Changed my mind and took Kingsford Drive.  Longhunter broke on top, was loose on the lead and took them into the stretch clear by daylight, but then here came Kingsford Drive.  With a furlong to go he'd collared him and was gone!  I had won with not one, not two, but my first THREE picks of the summer!  How awesome is it to be back at Calder!  

I got a text from a number I thought I recognized (no longer in my phone book because of the new phone....sigh....), and I was right - it was my buddy from CBHS graduations, Stevel Leland.  I met he and his wife, and their daughter and grand-daughter for about fifteen minutes.  That was fun, but then reality returned over the next two hours.  I missed on six straight selections.  I was a close second in a Tampa photo, and then there was an Inquiry and double-objection against the winner.  Even though I didn't think it was that bad I had hope that my number would be put up, but no.  Then I thought Brave Act would wire the field down the hill at Santa Anita - instead he was rated and ran evenly to be third.  FINALLY a winner came my way.  The sixth at Calder had horse-for-the-course Red Hills.  But I was leery of him because after he was a close 2nd for me on Opening Day at Gulfstream, and then won, he disappointed every time afterwards when I thought he was not only a likely winner, but should be a clear winner.  I realized he would run better here, but still I was willing to play against him.  I found Riversrunrylee who looked to be loose on the lead.  With an easy lead and the likely favorite vulnerable I made him the choice.  Wire to wire at a nice 5/1!  Collected over $30!  Now we're talking!  I came inside for the next on my sheet and it was from Keeneland.  I have come to really distrust jockey Julian Leparoux who "ruined" Union Rags' chances in the Florida Derby and Kentucky Derby last spring, but I have to admit, he is the jockey king of Keeneland.  So when I saw that Todd Pletcher's Winning Cause was being ridden by Leparoux, AND that Winning Cause had broken his maiden HERE at Keeneland, he was a triple bet.  I also liked the fact that he was dropping out of back-to-back NY stakes tries.  As they went down the backstretch he was far, FAR back.  A little concerned, but I guess Leparoux knows what he's doing, I thought.  Then he started to move him up and got him checked....typical I thought.  They turned for home and he was still far, FAR back.  Slim hope, but Keeneland often plays to closers.  And then, as it only happens on synthetics, he was FLYING.  Even the announcer didn't call him until the 16th pole and then you could tell, everyone could tell - this guy was going to make a miraculous stretch run to win!  

I collected another $30, and suddenly it is a wonderful day again :)  Way too far back in the next at Aqueduct at 4/1 - 9th.  Bad Debt closed on the Tampa turf, but only good enough for third at 7/2 with a double bet, ouch.  Next up was the third at Santa Anita.  I thought that Declassify would be an easy winner, but at odds-on.  First-time three-year-old for Bob Baffert with Martin Garcia; sizzling morning works....duh.  But at the short odds, I was only going to double the bet.  However, when I ran off Jeff Siegel's selections, he listed him as a "single" on a multi-race ticket.  Hmmmm.  The comment was he "appeared to be the real deal."  Made up my mind to double my double investment......"prime time" $20 to win!  He rated off the lead, was asked turning for home with just a slight shake of the reins and he was GONE!  Another big ticket winner!  I am having a VERY good day as I've now won six races!  

When I was waiting early in the day I remembered that Pimlico had two stakes races today with horses I'd bet on in the past, so I bet on both of them.  Though Julie's Love disappointed later in the day, right after the Declassify win Ben's Cat won the Mister Diz Stakes for the FOURTH year in a row - his 12th turf win in 18 starts over the grass!  

I had back-to-back seconds, one in NY the other at Tampa - so close as a double investment, grrrrr.  Then it was another "great handicapping" race.  This was the first of three wins on the day where I was really proud of myself.  Why?  Because I had a strong opinion on a horse that was NOT supposed to be the favorite.  And in spite of finishing the Gulfstream meet with only one good day over the last two weeks I was NOT deterred in putting my money where my convictions were.  It was the 8th at Aqueduct, the first of the sequence of four graded stakes.  It was the Grade 2 Gazelle for three-year-old fillies.  About a month ago Close Hatches was slated to start in a listed stakes at Tampa off a convincing win in allowance company at Gulfstream.  I thought she laid over that field.  But, she was cross-entered in a second-level allowance at Gulfstream the next day.  I wrote in my analysis that I thought the stakes was the easier spot than the allowance race.  Instead she stayed at Gulfstream and romped as easily the best.  Today she made her first stakes start for Bill Mott and Juddmonte Farms, and she was taking on a Todd Pletcher filly who was unbeaten and had won three stakes in a row at Aqueduct.  You know she'll be the favorite.  But I loved Close Hatches and made her my co-best in New York, $20 to win.  As they turned for home it was Close Hatches and the Pletcher filly dueling, with the Pletcher filly having the momentum.  She caught Close Hatches and put her head in front.....but Close Hatches refused to give in.  She surged, got back on even terms at the 16th pole and then drew clear!  YES!  I cashed for nearly $50 on my EIGHTH winner on the day!  

Less than ten minutes later it was a similar bet, my "Best" at Keeneland.  It was an allowance on the turf and as I looked through the field it looked very competitive.  But then I found Gathering.  Listed at 9/2 in the program she was being ridden by Rosie Napravnik.  But what drew my attention most was the fact she was from Europe, making her first US start today.  She'd run in and placed in a Group 3 last time out and was getting first Lasix today.  I thought she was a standout, and at a nice price.  Again, I went "prime time" to win, $20.  She was far back early, but I could tell Rosie had a lot of horse under her.  She moved easily up the backside and through the turn saving ground, but then was trapped on the rail!  A seam opened at the furlong pole and within a 16th of a mile she was clear on the outside.  The leader seemed to be drawing off but then Rosie asked for Gathering's closing kick and it was all over.  It was a HUGE run to the wire and she won going away!  YEEESSSSS!  The only thing disappointing was that I had not seen Gathering's odds before they left the gate.  I was thinking if she was 3/1 or 4/1 I had just made a huge score....but no, the crowd had seen what I saw and bet her to 6/5 favoritism.  To me though, this was still stealing!  Nearly $50 again!  

Ironically, after the Declassify win I had thought that I stood a good chance at breaking even, but could also lose a lot of money today because from 4 pm to the end of my selections I had several selections that I was investing at least $20 to win on....those losses add up and are hard to recover from, but now I'd cashed on two in a row!  Ten minutes after the Gathering score it was time for my "BET OF THE DAY" - it was at Santa Anita.  Beholder looked not only to continue to dominate the three-year-old fillies out west and head to the Kentucky Oaks, but she looked like the lone speed.  I knew she'd be a short-priced favorite, but as I've often said, as much as I would like to win money, I feel very rewarded when I am right and even more so when I put money that demonstrates how confident I am.  I briefly considered going "all-in" on Beholder with a "Zenyatta-like" bet, but decided that I wasn't ready to make that kind of bet on her, but I did go $50 to win.  In spite of breaking from the outside she easily assumed the lead, and cruised away uncontested.  The fractions were a little quicker than I would have picked, and the pressers started to make their move on the turn.  Garrett Gomez asked her for her best as they turned for home.  She had to run hard, but she was never threatened and I'd scored AGAIN!  And again with a big bet....cashed for $65!  But importantly, cashed with my "Bet of the Day!"  Great for my confidence!  

 I missed with a minimum bet in the Grade 3 Bay Shore at Aqueduct and was disappointed when Speak Logistics was only second best in the Calder Derby on track.  Then, oh-so-close with my "upset of the day" at Tampa.  I had $10 to win on Sneaking Uponyou who was 12/1 and lost in a photo finish.  Sigh.......but that was quickly remedied at Keeneland!  In fact, it was the "Handicapping Story of the Day" - even cooler (to me) than the huge day overall!  

Last Saturday at the Florida Derby I really liked Bill Mott's filly Emollient to win the Grade 2 Gulfstream Park Oaks and head off to Louisville as one of the favorites for the Kentucky Oaks.  She was 5/2, while Todd Pletcher's Deaming of Julia was the chalk.  But Emollient was a big disappointment never close to the pace and never making any kind of run - meanwhile Dreaming of Julia freaked and drew off by 20+ lengths.  So as I opened the page of the Daily Racing Form for Keeneland's feature race, the Grade 1 Ashland for 3-year-old fillies (their version of an "Oaks") I was very surprised to see Emollient in the field.  First sign of bad news was the poor effort last out; then she was coming back in just a week; and she had drawn the far outside #13 post position.  Then I started thinking "outside the box."  Trainer Bill Mott is a very conservative trainer who would NEVER bring a horse back in just a week, much less in a graded stakes.  The jockey today was Mike Smith - who apparently flew in from California, missing the entire Santa Anita Derby card - to ride.  Wait a tick.....something fishy going on here!  So I considered, if I thought she was such a strong Oaks candidate last week, and she hadn't run to her ability.....maybe, just maybe that served as kind of a workout and TODAY would be her day.  I not only bet her, but doubled the bet!  She was 8/1 in the program, but some people suspected what I did as she was bet down to 6/1.  The gates opened and it looked just like Mike Smith for Bill Mott on Royal Delta in the Breeders' Cup.  Mikey sent her right to the front, and it appeared as though she was running very easily.  I considered how difficult it is to win on the front end here, but still, it's exciting to see her loose by daylight down the backstretch.  They hit the far turn and no one was making up considerable ground, but now as they turned for home would be the test.  Smith shook the reins and it was all over!  Devastating, spectacular, you name it.....Emollient just destroyed the field winning by better than ten lengths!  WHOOOO HOOOOO!   The prices were posted and she paid $14.40......I'm cashing for nearly $75 on my 11th win of the day!  How spectacular can this day be?  

Missed at 5/1 in a Santa Anita stakes and then it was the finale at Calder.  I had liked the #1 horse to steal it on the turf.  But because it rained on Friday that would probably mean Calder would be off the turf until July......ok, slight exaggeration but they are so quick tr a o come off the turf.  If it was off the turf I liked the #7 - Southern Dunn equally well, and doubled the bet.  He pressed the pace and then drew off handily as my 12th win of the day.  I wasn't surprised, but also was disappointed when both Discreet Dancer and Comma to the Top failed to score in their graded stakes sprints.  Flotilla disappointed at Tampa, and I closed the day without a win there at 3/1.  But that brought us to the final three races on the card, and my "BEST" of the day in New York.  Time for Verrazano to stake his unbeaten record online and his status as Kentucky Derby favorite.  He had proven himself last time when going two turns for the first time,over a track he apparently didn't love in Tampa; and had even overcome some trouble.  But today he was shipping to New York, an entirely new climate and layout and facing two very legitimate foes in unbeaten Vyjack and the highly regarded, "wise-guy" horse Normandy Invasion.  He broke cleanly and sat comfortably off the longshot pace-setter.  When asked at the far turn he exploded to the front and was quickly clear.  I wondered if he'd moved too soon, or if he'd have more left if he had to be asked - because he'd never really had to run his best.  Sure enough, as they turned for home, here came Vyjack to challenge and Normandy Invasion was closing strongly.  John Velazquez asked and Verrazano responded.  Though he didn't draw off with devastating ease, he was never threatened.  My "BEST" bet of the day in New York of $30 had earned me my 13th win and over $50!  

I had three bets left, all at Santa Anita.  The first was the Grade 3 Providencia.  My pick was Scarlet Strike who had only made one turf start, but has closed strongly.  She got a big rider upgrade to Rafael Bejarano today.  She made a HUGE sweeping move on the turn, but as they came out of the turn she was four wide and lost a lot of ground.  Still, she was in contention with the front-runner and eventually wore her down.  My FOURTEENTH win, and my seventh stakes score of the day!  I am impressed with myself!  

Next was the Santa Anita Derby.  I wasn't sure who I liked, but when Hear The Ghost scratched (he'd won the prep for this, paying $13.80 as my top pick!), it looked like it was Bob Baffert's Flashback who would be the best.  There wouldn't be a pace duel today because Baffert was sending out a "designated front-runner."  Just seemed all too good to be true. Then I read the jockey for Goldencents, Kevin Krigger's comments.  He was quoted as saying, "if you see me relaxed just off the leader tomorrow, the rest of the horses had better be scared."  Interesting, and I thought back to the time I'd had him as my pick, it was the only time he'd relaxed just off the lead and he had won that day.  But I also thought he should have won easier through the stretch, so I wasn't completely sold.  When they were approaching the gate and Flashback was 1/1 and Goldencents was 6/1 the whole thing played through my mind again and I had that flash of doubt.  Should have listened.  Goldencents rated off the Baffert front-runner, and in spite of lightning quick splits he moved to the front with plenty of horse.  Flashback came to him but he was already being asked for his best and Goldencents had yet to run......I was second to a $14 winner :(  I had one more pick to play, but as I waited for the Santa Anita Derby I kept having an uneasy feeling about my pick running the way I had anticipated.  I added up how much I'd won for the day and I was certain to win, even if I bet and lost.  But then I thought - for the summer, I've told myself that the philosophy will be no "I think I could win" bets, only places where I feel good about my chances.  So I scratched it off my list.......good thing, he ran second to my "other horse!"  

So for the day my totals:  

34 selections / 14 WINS  (41%) and a profit of over $65!

A GREAT day at the races!