Dallmann Bay

 November 7

Today we met at 10 am to find out what was happening.

Downs After Dark

Downs After Dark - White Party!Video Recap

It was a fabulous night at the races with fifteen of us donning our best summer whites and enjoying four graded stakes under the lights at Churchill Downs! After getting settled in our seats in two reserved box seats (see group picture below) - where we had a great view of the finish line and the run to the wire, as well as the clubhouse turn (see panoramic below) it was time for the racing action to begin! When I had handicapped the races I did not find a stand out in either of first two races, but felt I had solid enough selections in a top three in both to play the daily double .... something I rarely, if ever do. 

In the opener two of my choices were battling through the final 16th of the stretch, so I felt good about being alive in the double, and it was certainly the case when #1-Hilary D edged clear as they approached the wire. WHOOO HOOOO! I had three live runners in the second, though I would not have had to be hard pressed to sell you my ticket on two of them.... why? Because this race was written for non-winners of two lifetime and those two had already piled up double-digit losses in their careers. The worst of the two was #6-Starter who had but a single win from TWENTY career starts! As the betting unfolded I was surprised at how much play he got, and by post time he was the 8/5 favorite. 

When they were loading in the gate and I took one final look at the odds, I was thinking to myself that this would be the "perfect" time for a horse like Starter to score....because under no normal circumstances would I have been playing this horse with this kind of record at these kinds of odds. Luckily, I told myself, because I had not had a strong enough opinion on any of the runners in here to think they provided me with an edge to bet them straight up to win, I DID have him included in the double. As they hit the final furlong the race played out in much the same manner as the opener......I had the leader and bearing down on the outside was #6-Starter, who was also mine. When he hit the wire first I'd hit the early double!

July 14

July 14:  Closing Day At Hollywood

Market Mix Beats The Boys!

When I saw that Marketing Mix was running in the Grade 3 Sunset on Closing Day my first thought was to bet her.  But she was facing a mile and a half specialist, last year's winner Dhammer.   I wavered back and forth and decided I wanted to see what the analysts on HRTV and TVG had to say.  Basically they said what I felt - it was a two horse race.  Could a Grade 1 mare (Marketing Mix) beat a distance specialist (Dhammer) even though she'd never gone this far?  Exactly the question.  What finally decided it was a graphic that went up about 8 minutes to post time.  It showed how Dhammer was trying to be the FIRST to repeat in the Sunset - three of the other five had come back to run second.  Hmmmm.  And then I saw Gary Stevens was riding.  That was it.  I knew he'd give her the best ride and the distance would not be a factor.  She won easily, handily, and just played with Dhammer who was running his heart out.  WHOOOO HOOOO!  End the weekend with another win!

 

July 13

Saturday July 13

Arlington Million Preview Day

Summer At Gulfstream!

I have to say I'm very sad that Calder and Gulfstream cannot seem to resolve their issues as they both have their place in South Florida racing, but if a choice has to be made Gulfstream Park management has worked and spent money to make their "Racing and Casino" facility a nice place to spend the day while Calder "Casino and Racing" (note the emphasis difference in their titles!) have done little to make their facility a nice place to visit - if anything, over the last couple of years they have shut down areas that used to be favorite spots of mine.  So today I went to Gulfstream.  I was surprised that to sit at my own simulcast monitor would cost me $10, but today was largely about the races from around the country and I didn't want to stand all day, especially with the threat of heavy thunderstorms I the forecast. 

I missed in the opener at Gulfstream when My Uncle Cardie led from the opening of the gates to the final fifty yards before being caught.  But I bounced right back with back-to-back-to-back wins!  I scored in the opener at Delaware with Avie who was part of a strong entry for trainer Juan Vasquez.  I actually preferred the 1a-Curlamorous, but most of the time I will defer to the trainer.  Avie went wire to wire in a hand ride. 

Then I nailed my first price play of the day when The Big Deluxe won at Belmont.  He'd won in his first try over the grass in Maiden Special company and after trying allowance company, while drawing post 11 in back-to-back races today he was better drawn and making his first start for a claiming tag - a powerful class move.  He paid $11 and cashed for nearly $30! 

And then I won my first Gulfstream Summer race when Madness n'Mayhem drew clear late.  He'd been 2/1 as they left the gate, but was 7/5 by the time he crossed the wire. 

I celebrated with a photo op in the paddock! (it's a good picture of me I thought - does me justice by showing off the nearly 20 pounds I've lost since March - go me!) 

I missed with back-to-back seconds (so at this point I've had three wins and three seconds!) - the second of which was a double investment on Dan and Sheila. I'll always remember that horse because he was a pick of mine on the day I was visiting the Fair Grounds in New Orleans in their feature race and I had been invited to join the handicapping show on air with announcer John G. Dooley and hottie handicapper Katie Mikolay.  She specifically stopped the show to ask me who I liked in the race :)  Such a sweetie! 

Back to racing.....I was back in the winner's circle with my only selection of the day at Calder.  Princess Mlia consistently earned speed figures that her rivals today only showed in their lifetime best efforts.  She opened up as they turned for home and was the easiest of winners, my fourth score of the day. 

Missed with two more, including a nailed-at-the-wire loss at Belmont before getting my first "added investment win in the 3rd at Arlington Park.  Cameo Appearance had wired his maiden field in just his second start last time out, earning a big 101 Beyer speed figure.  While I knew he'd probably regress today, his main rivals had never earned anything above the mid-80s and Cameo looked to be loose on an easy lead.  He was indeed, running a half mile split that was nearly ten lengths slower than his last, so he had plenty left for the final furlong to put away his more battle-tested foes today. 

I came right back with another triple investment at Belmont where Stop Sign looked loose on the lead dropping from a $50K to a $20K race; and he was DRF Dave Liftin's "best" of the day!  Led all the way to final strides, second!  Grrrrr.  I missed in the fifth at Gulfstream with Maid in Heaven.  Prior to the race I got a text from a close pal from Cypress Bay, Stephanie Anderson who was at Gulfstream with her husband Jim. Neither of us had the winner.  But I came back to win again at Delaware.  Their turf races were moved to the main and I was undecided about what to do with Wandering Kitten.  The trainer left him in, always a good sign, and he was being well bet - an even better sign.  He made a big move entering the far turn and ran right by the field at a very healthy 2/1 - letting me cash for $15!  My sixth victory! 

 

I had a great selection at Arlington in their 4th when I picked Excellent Chance at a huge 12/1.  A late running, but best-of-the-rest second.  That would have been nice.  The next selection on my sheet was on track at Gulfstream. It was a starter allowance field with at least three runners who needed the lead.  I thought it was an ideal spot for a closer.  Silver Sandles fit the bill and was dropping weight with an apprentice rider today.  As I walked to the paddock I ran into Stephanie and Jim and I told them, "You know I'm almost always backing one of the top favorites.  But my pick here is the #7, Silver Sandles, and he is 8/1!"  The both looked at the horse, but had a better idea.  Too bad for them because as the speed burners ran each other into the ground, Sandles was flying late, collared the surviving front runner inside the 16th pole and edged away late!  Even better.....his odds had floated up to a whopping 14/1 at post time!  WHOOOO HOOOOO!  He paid $31.20 and I cashed for nearly $80! 

Over the next 45 minutes I missed on four straight double investments when I was 2nd twice and third once - two of them I led all the way into mid-stretch before giving way.  Sigh..... Finally I was back on the board with my first stakes win on the afternoon.  Hollywood Park's second race was the Landaluce Stakes for 2-year-olds. The first stakes race of the summer season for juveniles.  DRF Handicapper Brad Free had commented that She's A Tiger was very quick and could be "something special."  She looked like the speed of the speed to me, and she was - LONG gone on the front end! 

I had doubled down on her and cashed for nearly $20.  I missed in the feature at Gulfstream, taken off the turf (think I would have won had it stayed on).  My "best" at Arlington on their "Arlington Million Preview" card was Ioya Bigtime in the Grade 3 Stars and Stripes.  I thought he had a chance to steal it on the front end as the lone speed;  he was 4/1 and I was looking at a $100 payoff, but after coasting on the front, he was passed without much of a fight by the tracking favorite, and weakened to fourth on the wire.  Next up however was my "BEST of the Day" at Belmont.  The Grade 1 Man O'War was a mile and 3/8th on the turf and should have had a short priced favorite in Point of Entry, owned by the Phipps family and trained by Hall of Famer Shug McGaughey.  But in his last (when I had him in the Grade 1 Manhattan) he'd exited the race with an injury.  So the Phipps and McGaughey put in another quality runner, one of my favorites Boisterous.  I didn't think he was a legitimate Grade 1 runner, but the field today was NOT filled with superstars.  And in fact the post-time favorite, Optimizer, had proven himself a solid Grade 3 runner, in spite of running second to Wise Dan.  I was surprised DRF Video Analyst Mike Beer strongly supported him.  Didn't change my mind, I went PRIME TIME on Boisterous.  He sat in mid pack to the far turn, made a big move to collar the leader and kicked on with it inside the final furlong!  Y-E-S!!!!!!  He paid $5.10, so I collected over $50 :) 

One more race to watch live before heading home through the summer monsoon rains!  Strathnaver was my triple investment selection in Arlington's Grade 3 Matron.  She ran a very dull 8th.  I made my last series of bets and headed home through pouring rains.  It was awful - I-595 was nearly flooded the entire way home, but no problems getting home.  I walked in and turned on the DVR to catch up.  In the 9th at Arlington, the Grade 3 American Derby my longshot Moro Tap was in good position through the far turn at 7/1 but had not stretch punch....fith.  In the Belmont finale I thought Freight would go right to the front and steal it.  The rider thought better of it and sat 4th....behind a loose-on-the-lead runner who wired the field.....sigh.  Finally, it was time for the fourth and final of the big four stakes on the Arlington Million Preview card.  Veteran millionaire Rahystrada had won this Grade 3 Arlington Handicap last year, for the second time, and was going for an historic third win.  Last year he'd come off a layoff with two competitive races and scored here in his third off the shelf.  Today he was third off the layoff - with both of them being competitive races - uh oh!  I thought he looked to be tracking a slow pace and would get first jump on the closers.  It worked out exactly the way I'd forseen it - and he paid a very generous $8.80, meaning I will cash for well over $40!  AWESOME! 

I missed in a Hollywood allowance when Dinvar Diva was 4/5 and instead of flying late with a big stretch punch she ran evenly.  I thought Muppet an would be loose on the lead in the Coach Jimi Lee Stakes going seven panels on the all-weather main track at Arlington, but he sat just off the speed and was an oh-so-close second at 9/2.  Then it was time for my "BET of the DAY" at Hollywood.  It was the Grade 2 A Gleam Handicap.  Teddy's Promise was my top pick to win, but I'd noted that if the front-running Rennesgotzip scratched from her rail draw that would leave Teddy as virtually the lone speed and a near-certain winner.  'Zip did scratch and I was on board!  The TVG analysts pointed out the obvious speed advantage, and then they had an interview with one of the trainers of an inside runner.  She said that she was hoping her filly would show speed.  That could be a problem I thought.  Sure enough, Teddy stalked the pace, but had to run pretty quickly early.  She put away the longshot turning for home, but inside the final 16th she didn't have enough to resist a late running graded stakes winner.....second, my TENTH runner-up horse of the day!.  The feature race at Hollywood was NOT the A Gleam, but the Grade 1 American Oaks for 3-year-old fillies going a mile and a quarter on the turf.  I really liked Emollient here.  As I noted, I didn't think Hall of Fame trainer Bill Mott would ship his New York base filly to California, to make her first, yes FIRST start on turf, in a Grade 1 if he didn't think she really had a good chance.  She'd been my pick in the Gulfstream Park Oaks on Florida Derby Day and disappointed.  But she came back on just seven days rest to win the Grade 1 Ashland Stakes on Keeneland's synthetic track - which plays like turf.  She could be forgiven for not firing in the Black Eyed Susan when she'd gone to her knees at the start.  So I tripled the bet.  Jockey Mike Smith would probably put her on the lead because the California front runner in the race (who'd won the prep for this) was not fast at all.  But Emollient broke flat footed, so Smith let her settle in third.  The pace was glacial - a :50 and change half mile!  I knew I was going to be in trouble, but that is why Mikey is a Hall of Fame rider.  Sensing the pace he moved Emollient midway down the backstretch to pressure the leader.  As they came out of the turn she proved to be much more talented.  But the early move had taken some of the starch out of her finishing kick and the closers were coming fast.....but not fast enough.  If you watched the gallop out past the wire, even without the momentum she refused to let any other filly pass her :)  I will cash for over $30 when I take my tickets to the track :) 

I lost the finale at Hollywood, but finished with ELEVEN wins on the day (32%) and a profit.  Good times!  Friday I start my "Summer at the Spa - Saratoga 2013" Handicapping project where I'll handicap every card, every day of the anniversary 150th meet.  The highlight will come August 23rd and 24th where I'll be on track with my brother-in-law Jason for the signature race, the Grade 1 Travers!

July 11

July 11 - Thursday Racing

A B - I - G Day With TEN Wins!  Big Profit!

Whoooo Hoooo

It seemed as I headed out for weekday of racing to be just "another" day of enjoying thoroughbred racing as I didn't have any "big" horses" or "BET of the Day" selections.  But as I've often said, it's the great thing about the game, you never know when you are going to have a big day!  Things got off to a fast start when in my first race, the Belmont opener, North Ocean was the pick.  He'd been part of a strong entry before the inside half scratched.  Joel Rosario had him positioned just off the leaders through the far turn, and then he powered by to win going away.  No matter he was the chalk, it was good to start off with a winner! 

The next race was the second at Belmont.  This was a Maiden Special for 2-year-olds, and the golden rule in summer two-year-old racing in New York, especially at Saratoga which opens next week, is to look for the Todd Pletcher runner.  Ari the Adventurer figured to be a short priced favorite, but he looked M-U-C-H the best to me.  When two runners scratched I thought he was tons the best, so I upped the bet from a double, to a triple investment.  What was interesting was I considered an exacta wheel - $5 exacta's with the other three.  And up to five minutes to post time any of those three would have paid more than a straight $15 win bet.  But I kept thinking about how I won the daily double on "Downs After Dark" and managed to lose money.....proving that I am a WIN bettor, not an exotic player.....and so I decided to go straight up to win. 

Well, sometimes I am just too smart :)  First, Ari did go off at 1/9, but he paid $2.30 instead of $2.20....that made my payout $17.25.  And the exacta paid $6.10 for a $2 bet....I would have cashed for $15.25 - so by playing the way I know how to pay best, I earned an extra $2.00!  It's the little things, you know?  :)  My third selection was in the third race at Delaware Park.  About 15 minutes before post time my son Jeff called and he was at the races!  So for the remainder of the day we were "at the track" together....made the day all the more fun!  Anyway, we both liked Miss Mischief.  Trainer Dick Dutrow scores 22% off the layoff and Joe Bravo was in town to ride.  He had her positioned just off the front runners as they hit the turn, but as they moved through the turn she steadily dropped back and the filly in front opened up turning for home.  Oh well.....but wait!  Bravo shifted her outside, the leader began to shorten stride and suddenly Miss Mischief seemed to have found a new gear!  It was going to be close.......

WINNER!  I can't remember the last time I had a horse win after I'd thought it was all over.  Very fun....and we both had her to win.  Jeff had the trifecta - smart boy!  Next on my sheet was the second race from Arlington Park.  My top selection was Fordubai who was a three year old facing older, but dropping out of back-to-back graded stakes.  Late running at 2/1 to score!  My fourth in a row!  Less than ten minutes later the fourth at Belmont went into the gate.  I was against the favorite here and had picked My Sparky.  She was the typical "pop and stop" front-runner, but I thought the field was week, and she was dropping in class.  After the race Jeff and I talked on the phone and I reminded him of he always says I bet the "fabricated speed" of the race.  Not this time my son!  She coasted on the front end, winning with ease!  Jeff's comment, "I hated the 3 (My Sparky)." And that's why the old man is smarter than the padowan today! 

My Sparky marked my FIFTH winner in a row - I'm having a VERY good day! 

In a shocking turn of events I not only LOST the next race, I lost the next two!  Both were on the turf and I really wasn't close with the first one.  But in the second of the pair I thought maybe Little Nip was interfered with through the stretch, but the Arlington stewards didn't even bother to take a look - second.  Then came two of the "highlight reel" moments of the day. 

The fifth at Belmont was an allowance-optional claiming event going one mile. I wrote that Tahoe Tigress looked like a standout on paper with two wins in a row and the top Beyers in the race.  But as the betting went on she was the third choice.  I almost called Jeff to ask what did he think was going on here, but he called me first and said he thoughtthat Tahoe Tigress looked much the best!  I agreed and I'd doubled the bet.  We were both right as Tahoe Tigress mowed them down on the turn and drew off as MUCH the best!  The big $6.80 payoff was a gift and I cashed for over $30! 

As Jeff and I were talking about this Belmont race I pointed out to him that the featured Stymie Stakes at Delaware was next and that the morning line favorite was Ponzi Scheme.  He was on the cover of the Daily Racing Form I told Jeff, and I'd doubled the investment even though he had lost nine in a row. 

He had a big class edge I thought.  But what made this an interesting horse and race was that through the early betting Ponzi Scheme was 10-1 on the board!  By this time he was 6/1, but I thought that was a real overlay.  We both had $10 to win and as they turned for home Ponzi Scheme made his move and ran away from the field!  WHOOO HOOO!  He had close at better than 5/1 and paid $12.80!  I was getting back over $60, and when I cashed this ticket with the Belmont ticket I would be collecting nearly $100! 

I ran third in my last three live bets - all as the short-priced favorite, all with added money.  Normally when I head for home I make my final bets and carry the tickets home to be able to cash on the next trip to the races.  But I'd decided to play the races at Gulfstream Saturday, so I didn't want to have well over $50, and as much as $100 with winnings, tied up in Calder tickets, so I played the last series of bets on twinspires.com.  When I got home I quickly caught up with the three races I'd missed while on the road - 4th at 4/5; 7th at 8/1 - ouch; and 5th as the 9/5 favorite in the Belmont finale. 

Time to head out west to Betfair Hollywood Park for the remainderof the day.  In the 4th Blue Tone figured to be a short priced favorite.  He'd earned a huge 95 speed figure when running second in his debut to a horse that had come right back to beat winners.  Rafael Bejarano had him in mid-pack to the turn and then made his move.  I thought the wide move might have cost him, but Ble Tone found another gear and ran right by the field.  I'm back in the winner's circle! 

My "best" at Hollywood was in the 6th where Brad Free named Proven Warrior his best of the day.  h had a double Beyer advantage and had run two big races off the shelf.  As I had circled him I was a little concerned that there was a Bob Baffert trained runner, ridden by Martin Garcia who had missed by a nose in his debut.  These are usually odds-on runners when they come right back to score.  But his speed figure was ten points below those of Proven Warrior.  Sigh......Baffert's horse won and paid an amazing $10.20!  Missed it when I was 4th at even money.  I needed to cash on one of my last two races to preserve my profit for the day.  In the 7th and feature at Hollywood I liked Meydan Magic on the turf.  He was a nice 5/1 and was right there on the turn, but the favorite swooped by and drew off by nearly six lengths  I was a clear second.  Sigh.......but wait a tic! 

The HRTV announcers immediately said they were certain there would be an inquiry. 

And when host Laffit Pincay, Jr. said ".....if you have any money on the winner, it's time to be very nervous and start sweating....." I started to have hope.  YES.....he was DQ'd and Meydan Magic is put up as the winner!  WHOOO HOOOO!  His $12.20 payoff is my third very nice price score of the day and I'm cashing for over $30!  NICE! 

The final race at Betfair Hollywood, and my final selection was a maiden claimer for two-year-olds.  I liked the first time starter Lorocco who's trainer was winning 35% with debut runners with a whopping $5.78 ROI, and a solid 28% with juvenile runners (at $3.94 ROI).  No surprise Lorocco was the 2/1 favorite as they approached the gate.  I was encouraged when the HRTV analyst said he REALLY liked Lorocco.  But when they broke out of the gate he broke poorly and was last.  Going 5 1/2 furlongs, especially with a group of 2yo runners who only know how to run fast, that's almost always the kiss of death.  But top rider Edwin Maldando didn't rush him and let him get into stride.  By the time they'd hit the far turn he was fifth, only three off the lead.  He moved wide, and I thought the lost ground might be the final nail in the coffin, but the he kicked into gear and drew off handily.  WOW, how much would he have won by without a troubled start?  But the best part.....instead of being bet down in the final few minutes his price had floated UP to 5/2!  I'd doubled the bet on him and when the $7.00 payoff was posted I was cashing for well over $30 AGAIN! 

For the day I was an AMAZING 10-for-20 and had profited over $82!  And all this on a day where it looked to be "just another day" at the races!

July 6

Saturday July 6

Summit of Speed Day / Hollywood Gold Cup Day

 

My original plan for today was to play a few races early and then head to Calder for the big four graded stakes since our daughter Julie was in town (before heading to Peru for a hiking expedition through the mountains!  You go girl!).  But after her arrival Friday evening she told us she'd made plans to go to the beach with friends until about 2:30 or 3 pm.....about the time I'd be heading to the races.  Kim has not had a day off since school started (defined as nothing on the plate but be home) and so I took my Form and headed to the races today.  The bottom line on the day was it was very similar to the way the summer has gone from the beginning.......had fun, picked my typical 30%+ share of winners, and came out behind for the day on the money investments.  Hard to score a flat-bet profit if your biggest price winner pays $3.70 on the day!  So let's get to the specifics........

In the first three hours I had only seven selections but I won with FIVE of them!  And three of the five winners were with added money investments.  The first selection on my sheet was the opener from Monmouth Park.  Here I liked #1-He Can Run.  He was the speed on the rail in this claiming event, but what really drew my attention was that he was first off the claim for a barn that was scoring with nearly 50% of those claims....impressive.  From the moment the gate sprung open he was under pressure and I thought as they dueled through the turn that the trainer better be good because it's never good to have to duel through the opening five furlongs.  And indeed he was as He Can Run sure COULD RUN, drawing off by a widening five lengths to score.  I'm one-for-one and it's a good feeling after having been away from the track for a long while.  

I was smiling as the next sheet was underway - Silver and Onions was making his second start after running a good third in a KEY maiden race where the winner had come right back to score.  He opened up by three or four in mid-stretch and I was counting my money....... and then a first time-starter came flying on the outside to nail him inside the final 20 yards.  sigh.....But no worries.  In my next selection, the third at Monmouth I had picked Colony strike.  His two and three back race speed figures made him a standout.  I was hoping the crowd would focus on his last race and allow him to be a fair price, but they made him the 6/5 favorite.  As they hit the far turn of this 8 1/2 furlong test he was in mid-pack, but Joel Rosario had him shifting into high gear.  Three horses that had been chasing the longshot front runner moved outside the leader as heads turned for home - but Rosario was too clever for them; he steered Colony Strike up the rail and a gaping seam opened.  It was all over but the shouting by the furlong marker and Colony Strike won motored down on the wire, clear by half a dozen lengths! 

I missed at both Belmont and Monmouth before getting back in the winner's circle in the 4th at Belmont.  It was a mile and a quarter allowance-optional claiming, nw2x turf event.  My pick was Star Channel.  Three races back she'd tried stakes company going nine furlongs and didn't score.  Her connections dropped her into a nw2x AOC event on the turf and stretched her out to a mile and a quarter....she won.  Her last race was a nine furlong turf stakes - uh oh.  Today she was dropping in class and stretching out to 10 furlongs in a nw2x AOC event!  She moved sharply midway through the final turn and opened up four, looking home free.  But the move may have been premature as a longshot closer had gathered momentum!  Oh so close, PHOTO FINISH!  I felt pretty confident however......Star Channel is in the red silks on the inside..... 

Best of all, Star Channel was my "best" of the day at Belmont!  WHOOO HOOOO!  As soon as she crossed the finish line they were in the gate at Calder so I walked out to the rail.  Dama de Negro had been bet to favoritism and I was hoping she'd be loose on the lead.  But she was hounded from the opening bell until mid-stretch before she finally cleared late to score - my fourth of the day! 

About fifteen minutes later I was pretty proud of myself and my handicapping, even if it didn't pay a lot.  The race was at Monmouth, on the turf going nine furlongs.  My top selection - and I doubled the investment - was Situational Ethics.  There was conflicting evidence on this runner.  On the positive side, this was his first time in a conditioned claimer.  On the negative he'd built up a career box of one win from EIGHTEEN starts!  Ouch!  But, he had a triple Beyer advantage.  Still, often horses that can't win seem to find a way to let someone else finish first in spite of their speed figure advantage.  But to me, the numbers just looked too strong.  As the race unfolded jockey Paco Lopez had him laying about four off the lead, saving ground on the fence.  But when they turned for home there was no where to run.  He angled out, losing a length or two and now had but a furlong to run down the top two.  Luckily he (#2-yellow cap) found another gear and was J-U-S-T up in time!  HORRAY! 

So with five wins from my first eight selections I felt pretty good as the stakes action started.  Over the course of the next 90 minutes I was shut-out - but I did have good prices and was close without cashing.  I was a good third on the turf at Belmont at 3/1, an even third in the Grade 2 Azalea at Calder and then was absolutely flying at the finish with 9/1 Jackson Bend in the grade 2 Smile Sprint Handicap, finishing a very close third, again.  I missed again when Julian Leparoux gave his usual poor ride at Hollywood before hitting my next winner.  It was the feature at Belmont the Grade 2 Suburban Handicap. 

When I looked over the past performances it came down to two horses - the Last Gunfighter or Flat Out.  Flat Out was a perfect 4-for-4 over the Belmont main surface until the last time when he was jostled around and finished third.  As a seven-year-old many thought he'd lost a step.  The Last Gunfighter however had run off seven straight wins, the last three in graded company; had paired Beyers of 100; and had a sharp bullet work.  I circled his number and began to right my comments, and then I just had this epiphany......wait a tic, Flat Out WILL win and everyone will be talking about how much he loves Belmont.  And even with the "poor" race last out his two back and last race Beyers were better than any LIFETIME number earned by any of today's rivals - including The Last Gunfighter.  I didn't want to go all in, because it was a small field and Flat Out is a mid-pack closer.....always the chance that a speedster gets away from him.  So I doubled the bet.  The gate sprung open and who is in the lead......FLAT OUT!  What the ?????  He took back to press the pace, then opened up as they turned for home and it was all over!  WHOOO HOOO!  Another winner, and this time in the graded feature - those always make me feel even better! 

The next race was the Grade 1 Princess Rooney and my top pick was Southern California speedster Rennesgotzip.  But she'd scratched so I went with my second choice with a minimum bet.  My Pal Chrissy had won stakes races here, but showed nothing but route races throughout her past performances.  BUT, her career box for this six furlong distance was a good 7/4-1-0, and there seemed to be enough speed to set up her late run.  She was dismissed at a whopping 24-1 and was F-L-Y-I-N-G at the finish......second.  Oh that would have been very nice!  On the Monmouth turf One Golden Road looked like the lone speed at 9/1, but was fourth to the stretch and stopped.  In the last stakes race at Calder, the Hollywood Wildcat I was hoping for late afternoon rains to come and wash it onto the main track.  Angelica Zapata would be a "BET of the DAY" if that happened.  And this ALWAYS happens in the summer at Calder, but not today....sigh.  I stuck with her and she was a very close second at a big 5/1....that too would have been nice!  In the first of the two graded features at Monmouth Csaba was an even third at 2/1 in the Grade 3 Salvator Mile.  I got my seventh win of the day in a maiden claimer at Hollywood when Cast a Doubt was MUCH the best at 3/5.  I'd doubled the bet, cashed for nearly $20.

The feature at Monmouth was the Grade 1 United Nations.  I thought this was a good spot to go against Little Mike, as it was his first race after running twice in Dubai.  But, every time I went against him last year he beat me and almost always at a nice price.  I had vowed that I'd make him an automatic bet in every start this year.  He led to the top of the stretch, but did not kick on, 4th.  C'mon Mike, you owe me one now!  In the Grade 2 Royal Heroine Mile at Hollywood I really thought Stormy Lucy (7/2) was making a winning move when she clipped heels and fell back to last.....sigh.  Lost with two favorites in the Belmont and Monmouth finales before it was time for the BET OF THE DAY!  The featured Grade 1 Hollywood Gold Cup. 

Without question the best older handicap horse in the country is Game On Dude.  And he looked to be loose on the lead today - but as often is the case, riders and horses sometimes have a way of scrambling what looks like obvious form on paper.  And there was the issue of him carrying 127 pounds today - conceding anywhere from 8 to 16 pounds to his rivals.  The last thing was he'd supposedly missed one training work with a temperature.  But the write-ups all had him on top of his game and he was everyone's best of the day.  I was hoping with all the above he'd be maybe 3/5 or 4/5.  My biggest issue was how much to bet.  I didn't want to give away the entire day's bankroll if he lost, but I had a lot of confidence in him.  I originally thought a $30 investment.  Then I thought $50.  I considered $75, but considered how much confidence I'd had when I put $75 to win on Wise Dan - did I have that much confidence here?  No.  So I went with $60.....I felt good about going above the $50 marker, but staying below a "Wise Dan-like" investment.  Right to the front, never took a deep breath and Mike Smith hand rode him to the wire with something left in the tank!  HORRAY!  As I've said many times - to score with the "BET of the Day" with big money on the line is always the most satisfying feeling for me and my handicapping. 

In a side note, today was the first time EVER that Calder and Gulfstream ran head-to-head during the summer.  They looked to have a good crowd on hand at Gulfstream, and I felt that the only reason Calder had such a good crowd was all the graded stakes.  But, when "normal" racing returns next weekend, where the feature at both tracks figures to be a $65 or $70K race, the crowds will flock to Hallandale.  I can bet the simulcasts (like Arlington Million Preview Day) from either track.  So next weekend, I'm off to Gulfstream Park!

July 4th

July 4th - Happy Birthday America

New Month - BIG WIN

After travelling all day yesterday (left at 3:45 am from Hiawassee and arrived in Ft. Lauderdale around 4 pm) I didn't really feel like a full day of handicapping, but I saw that one of my favorite runners, Data Link was running in the feature - the Grade 3 Poker - at Belmont.  So I decided to check out the other video previews for the holiday.  Both Mike Beer and Dan Illman remarked that Data Link should win the Poker, but like me they had reservations about his off form of late.  I decided that I would invest in him anyway, cut scale back the investment. 

I had seen that Hollywood Park was hosting the Grade 2 Swaps for 3-year-olds and so I watched that preview as well.  Both of them remarked that the set-up could not have been scripted any better for Chief Havoc.  He was an in-form front-runner in a field of four.  His three rivals today were a deep closer, a stone-cold closer, and a come-from-the-clouds closer.  Chief Havoc figured to break on top, be a good four lengths on the lead down the backstretch under an easy gallop and canter home.....unless, as Dan Illman said (and I thought) something wacky happened, which DOES happen in thoroughbred racing!  So I went to the Betfair Hollywood site and checked what Mike Silverstein had to say.  More of the same, he put Chief Havoc on top.  But the opinion that I really wanted was DRF Handicapper Brad Free......he is very good, especially with his "Best" selections.  Well, Chief Havoc was his "BEST" of the day, and as he wrote, it was more like a "most likely to win" than a "best investment."  I considered the possibilities of something wacky happening and concluded that even given such events, it was a slam dunk in such a short field.  So I made a "BET OF THE DAY" investment......$50 to WIN! 

Later in the day I watched the replays.  From the get-go I could tell Data Link was not running smoothly.  And the one horse I'd been fearful of, King Kressa (because he could get away as the lone speed) did exactly what I was afraid of.  He was loose on a very easy lead; with Data Link not running to his past form, the speedster was gone and Data Link was all out to try and hit the board.....4th.  Then at Hollywood, just as I feared as well, NOT the way it looked on paper......

The rail runner, a closer, was sent right to the front by Mike Smith.  Really?  Chief Havoc's rider was clever however, he didn't try to engage him or out-sprint him.  And by the time they had run through the first turn the Chief was in front, but only by 3/4 of a length.  And another closer, ridden by Julian Leparoux was stalking close to the pace!  This is not at all how I'd seen the race unfold in my mind!  Chief Havoc opened up as they hit the far turn, but Smith asked his horse for run and was gaining some ground.  Leparoux tried to split horses and as heads turned for home it looked like a three-horse race to the wire.  But Smith's horse had had enough of running early and he stopped; Leparoux - as he typically does - had moved too soon and his mount hung through the lane.  Meanwhile Chief Havoc extended his stride and drew off with authority!  WHOOO HOOOO!  I cashed for $70 and was ahead for the day and the new month! 

Saturday is Summit of Speed Day at Calder with six big stakes races, four of them graded; and Game On Dude is going in the Grade 1 Hollywood Gold Cup to defend his crown.  I will be on track for a short time (daughter Julie will be in town before heading out on her adventure to Peru).