Saturday July 6
Summit of Speed Day / Hollywood Gold Cup Day
In the first three hours I had only seven selections but I won with FIVE of them! And three of the five winners were with added money investments. The first selection on my sheet was the opener from Monmouth Park. Here I liked #1-He Can Run. He was the speed on the rail in this claiming event, but what really drew my attention was that he was first off the claim for a barn that was scoring with nearly 50% of those claims....impressive. From the moment the gate sprung open he was under pressure and I thought as they dueled through the turn that the trainer better be good because it's never good to have to duel through the opening five furlongs. And indeed he was as He Can Run sure COULD RUN, drawing off by a widening five lengths to score. I'm one-for-one and it's a good feeling after having been away from the track for a long while.
I was smiling as the next sheet was underway - Silver and Onions was making his second start after running a good third in a KEY maiden race where the winner had come right back to score. He opened up by three or four in mid-stretch and I was counting my money....... and then a first time-starter came flying on the outside to nail him inside the final 20 yards. sigh.....But no worries. In my next selection, the third at Monmouth I had picked Colony strike. His two and three back race speed figures made him a standout. I was hoping the crowd would focus on his last race and allow him to be a fair price, but they made him the 6/5 favorite. As they hit the far turn of this 8 1/2 furlong test he was in mid-pack, but Joel Rosario had him shifting into high gear. Three horses that had been chasing the longshot front runner moved outside the leader as heads turned for home - but Rosario was too clever for them; he steered Colony Strike up the rail and a gaping seam opened. It was all over but the shouting by the furlong marker and Colony Strike won motored down on the wire, clear by half a dozen lengths!
I missed at both Belmont and Monmouth before getting back in the winner's circle in the 4th at Belmont. It was a mile and a quarter allowance-optional claiming, nw2x turf event. My pick was Star Channel. Three races back she'd tried stakes company going nine furlongs and didn't score. Her connections dropped her into a nw2x AOC event on the turf and stretched her out to a mile and a quarter....she won. Her last race was a nine furlong turf stakes - uh oh. Today she was dropping in class and stretching out to 10 furlongs in a nw2x AOC event! She moved sharply midway through the final turn and opened up four, looking home free. But the move may have been premature as a longshot closer had gathered momentum! Oh so close, PHOTO FINISH! I felt pretty confident however......Star Channel is in the red silks on the inside.....
Best of all, Star Channel was my "best" of the day at Belmont! WHOOO HOOOO! As soon as she crossed the finish line they were in the gate at Calder so I walked out to the rail. Dama de Negro had been bet to favoritism and I was hoping she'd be loose on the lead. But she was hounded from the opening bell until mid-stretch before she finally cleared late to score - my fourth of the day!
About fifteen minutes later I was pretty proud of myself and my handicapping, even if it didn't pay a lot. The race was at Monmouth, on the turf going nine furlongs. My top selection - and I doubled the investment - was Situational Ethics. There was conflicting evidence on this runner. On the positive side, this was his first time in a conditioned claimer. On the negative he'd built up a career box of one win from EIGHTEEN starts! Ouch! But, he had a triple Beyer advantage. Still, often horses that can't win seem to find a way to let someone else finish first in spite of their speed figure advantage. But to me, the numbers just looked too strong. As the race unfolded jockey Paco Lopez had him laying about four off the lead, saving ground on the fence. But when they turned for home there was no where to run. He angled out, losing a length or two and now had but a furlong to run down the top two. Luckily he (#2-yellow cap) found another gear and was J-U-S-T up in time! HORRAY!
So with five wins from my first eight selections I felt pretty good as the stakes action started. Over the course of the next 90 minutes I was shut-out - but I did have good prices and was close without cashing. I was a good third on the turf at Belmont at 3/1, an even third in the Grade 2 Azalea at Calder and then was absolutely flying at the finish with 9/1 Jackson Bend in the grade 2 Smile Sprint Handicap, finishing a very close third, again. I missed again when Julian Leparoux gave his usual poor ride at Hollywood before hitting my next winner. It was the feature at Belmont the Grade 2 Suburban Handicap.
When I looked over the past performances it came down to two horses - the Last Gunfighter or Flat Out. Flat Out was a perfect 4-for-4 over the Belmont main surface until the last time when he was jostled around and finished third. As a seven-year-old many thought he'd lost a step. The Last Gunfighter however had run off seven straight wins, the last three in graded company; had paired Beyers of 100; and had a sharp bullet work. I circled his number and began to right my comments, and then I just had this epiphany......wait a tic, Flat Out WILL win and everyone will be talking about how much he loves Belmont. And even with the "poor" race last out his two back and last race Beyers were better than any LIFETIME number earned by any of today's rivals - including The Last Gunfighter. I didn't want to go all in, because it was a small field and Flat Out is a mid-pack closer.....always the chance that a speedster gets away from him. So I doubled the bet. The gate sprung open and who is in the lead......FLAT OUT! What the ????? He took back to press the pace, then opened up as they turned for home and it was all over! WHOOO HOOO! Another winner, and this time in the graded feature - those always make me feel even better!
The next race was the Grade 1 Princess Rooney and my top pick was Southern California speedster Rennesgotzip. But she'd scratched so I went with my second choice with a minimum bet. My Pal Chrissy had won stakes races here, but showed nothing but route races throughout her past performances. BUT, her career box for this six furlong distance was a good 7/4-1-0, and there seemed to be enough speed to set up her late run. She was dismissed at a whopping 24-1 and was F-L-Y-I-N-G at the finish......second. Oh that would have been very nice! On the Monmouth turf One Golden Road looked like the lone speed at 9/1, but was fourth to the stretch and stopped. In the last stakes race at Calder, the Hollywood Wildcat I was hoping for late afternoon rains to come and wash it onto the main track. Angelica Zapata would be a "BET of the DAY" if that happened. And this ALWAYS happens in the summer at Calder, but not today....sigh. I stuck with her and she was a very close second at a big 5/1....that too would have been nice! In the first of the two graded features at Monmouth Csaba was an even third at 2/1 in the Grade 3 Salvator Mile. I got my seventh win of the day in a maiden claimer at Hollywood when Cast a Doubt was MUCH the best at 3/5. I'd doubled the bet, cashed for nearly $20.
The feature at Monmouth was the Grade 1 United Nations. I thought this was a good spot to go against Little Mike, as it was his first race after running twice in Dubai. But, every time I went against him last year he beat me and almost always at a nice price. I had vowed that I'd make him an automatic bet in every start this year. He led to the top of the stretch, but did not kick on, 4th. C'mon Mike, you owe me one now! In the Grade 2 Royal Heroine Mile at Hollywood I really thought Stormy Lucy (7/2) was making a winning move when she clipped heels and fell back to last.....sigh. Lost with two favorites in the Belmont and Monmouth finales before it was time for the BET OF THE DAY! The featured Grade 1 Hollywood Gold Cup.
Without question the best older handicap horse in the country is Game On Dude. And he looked to be loose on the lead today - but as often is the case, riders and horses sometimes have a way of scrambling what looks like obvious form on paper. And there was the issue of him carrying 127 pounds today - conceding anywhere from 8 to 16 pounds to his rivals. The last thing was he'd supposedly missed one training work with a temperature. But the write-ups all had him on top of his game and he was everyone's best of the day. I was hoping with all the above he'd be maybe 3/5 or 4/5. My biggest issue was how much to bet. I didn't want to give away the entire day's bankroll if he lost, but I had a lot of confidence in him. I originally thought a $30 investment. Then I thought $50. I considered $75, but considered how much confidence I'd had when I put $75 to win on Wise Dan - did I have that much confidence here? No. So I went with $60.....I felt good about going above the $50 marker, but staying below a "Wise Dan-like" investment. Right to the front, never took a deep breath and Mike Smith hand rode him to the wire with something left in the tank! HORRAY! As I've said many times - to score with the "BET of the Day" with big money on the line is always the most satisfying feeling for me and my handicapping.
In a side note, today was the first time EVER that Calder and Gulfstream ran head-to-head during the summer. They looked to have a good crowd on hand at Gulfstream, and I felt that the only reason Calder had such a good crowd was all the graded stakes. But, when "normal" racing returns next weekend, where the feature at both tracks figures to be a $65 or $70K race, the crowds will flock to Hallandale. I can bet the simulcasts (like Arlington Million Preview Day) from either track. So next weekend, I'm off to Gulfstream Park!
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