June 21 - July 1:  ALASKA!

 

An Amazing Adventure With Sue & Dan

Two-For-Three On Return To Continental US

After our great "Downs After Dark" adventure on June 15 we were off to Georgia, then Seattle, and then onboard the Celebrity Solstice for Alaska with our best friends Sue & Dan Reynolds.  As far as racing goes I completely walked away from thoroughbred racing (and the Internet) until we returned to Seattle, Washington on Friday June 28.  I had set my calendar to remind me of three of my "big horses" who were running over the weekend, and looked to be easy, short-priced winners. 

The first was at Prairie Meadows on Friday night where Delauney, currently the best sprinter in the country was running in the Iowa Sprint Stakes.  He was sent off at 1/5 and on paper just laid over the field.  But after betting these races - which always draw some big name runners - I've found that often the "name" runners don' run to their reputation.  So I didn't want to go all in on this race, like I felt I much more confident in the Saturday stakes races.  Delauney broke a little slowly, but there was a good pace duel to the far turn.  He moved easily to the lead five wide and looked to have the 9/5 second choice well in his sights as heads turned for home.  But instead of kicking away powerfully as he'd done several times this winter at the Fair Grounds, and most recently in the Grade 2 Churchill Downs Sprint, he didn't have that "extra gear."  It was a stirring stretch duel, but I've seen this story play out on this track before.....came up short to be second :( 

This made me think about how I wanted to play the two big graded stakes on Saturday.  But the more I thought about it and investigated it, I decided they were BOTH worthy of "BET of the DAY" status! 

Both races were one-mile turf events.  The first was the Grade 1 Shoemaker Mile at Hollywood Park.  Obviously, arguably the best turf miler on the west coast, would have been my top pick anyway, but when I watched the DRF video preview both Mike Beer and Dan Illman talked about how he was the ONLY front-runner in the field.  WOW.....certainly they would not let him steal another graded event, would they?  He was breaking from the "outside" in post five of a five-horse field.  Sure enough, one of his rivals gunned out of the gate.  Jockey Joe Talamo watched the break develop, then let Obviously get into his stride - quickly he was in front before they were midway on the turn.  The opening quarter in :23 and change was all I needed to see, he was LONG gone.  The six-furlong mark of 1:09 and change as they turned for home was a little quick, and the second choice came running at him.  Obviously would not just walk to the wire, but he was handily much the best!  My $50 win bet earned me a payoff of $65.00!  WHOOO HOOOO! 

 

 

The second big play of the day was Wise Dan, the reigning Horse of the Year, who was running in the Grade 2 Firecracker at Churchill Downs.  He entered the race off six straight wins, all on the turf, and all in Grade 1 company.  So the "drop" into Grade 2 company seemed to make it a slam dunk.  BUT, he was assigned 128 pounds and was giving at least fifteen pounds to all his rivals.  It would be no cakewalk, but it would be "an easy race" if he ran a typical "Wise Dan race."  His trainer noted that they were going here mainly because it fit their schedule and it would set Wise Dan up for his championship run through late summer and the fall leading up to the Breeders' Cup.  As I watched the replay it became obvious that two other obstacles were being thrown at him.....first, it was raining pretty heavily.  And while he'd won his last here, in the rain over a soft course, he was also pinned down along the hedge where the turf was much softer.  The second obstacle was that it was very clear that the other four riders were riding as much to PREVENT WISE DAN from winning as to win the race themselves.  He was pinned on the hedge from the opening break by not one, not two, but three runners.  And as they ran through the far turn it was clear that Wise Dan was ready to go, but had no where to run.  I thought, "....this is NOT going to be good!"  But as they straightened away the narrowest of seams opened on the hedge and jockey Johnny Velazquez asked Wise Dan to run through the narrow opening.  Both Wise Dan and Johnny V have to have scratch marks from the hedges because there was NOT room to go through, but he bulled his way through and then held off the second choice who had had a clear run throughout.  ANOTHER WINNER!  WHOOO HOOO!  Yay Wise Dan!  He paid a paltry $2.40, but it meant I collected $60.00 - and I'm a winner for the weekend :)

Be sure to check out the Alaskan pictures and videos.....it was an amazing journey!

Sunday June 16

Verrazano Returns With A Big WIN!

I had seen online that Verrazano, my Derby pick was returning to the races I the Pegasus Stakes at Monmouth Park today and his only real competition was supposed to come from Itsmyluckyday.  If you followed my pre-Derby (and other Triple Crown) posts, I have never been a fan of his - he's a good Calder horse, but no superstar.  The crowd bet Itsmyluckyday down to 6/5, but pounded Verrazano to 2/5.  After an opening quarter in :24.4 on an uncontested lead the race was over.  All drama, if there still was any, ended when Itsmyluckyday pulled up down the backstretch. 

I added the Desert Stormer Stakes even though I really didn't "handicap" the race at all.  I read that he was both Brad Free's and Mike Superstein's "best" of the day.  If he'd been just their top pick I would not have put money on him because of the presence of Include Me Out in he field; but both indicated he was MUCH the best and went on to add he was the best sprinter on the west coast.  As they came into the turn he was bottled up on the rail and apparently everybody, except the jockey, knew she wanted to be off the rail and outside as announcer Vic Stauffer called out how she did NOT like being on the rail.  The rider tried to force his way through but had to check SHARPLY and lost all chance.  The fact she re-rallied and nearly got second was a miracle.  Sigh......

June 14 - On The Road To Louisville!

Paynter's Triumph Return

Today was the second day of our drive to Louisville.  The first half of our BIG SUMMER ADVENTURE is a weekend reunion with family in Kentucky, featuring a night at the races for "Downs After Dark" on Stephen Foster Night, themed to "White Party!"  But today we had a surprise adventure when our GPS took us off the interstates and we wound around  on Tennessee State Route 231.  It was a GORGEOUS day - temps in the upper 70's, clear skies and little traffic as we cruised the highways of western Tennessee and Kentucky.  It was a spectacular drive!  But, on to the racing....... 

The back story..... on Kentucky Derby Day (when I was there!) Zayat Stables Bodemeister, trained by Bob Baffert, set wicked fractions and went gate to final fifty yards before being nipped at the wire by I'll Have Another.  Two weeks later in the Preakness Bodemeister was loose on a much easier lead, only to be nailed ON the wire by I'll Have Another.  Both those colts were not in the Belmont, but Baffert entered Zayat Stables Paynter, a sophomore with immense talent.  He too went right to the front and led gate to final fifty yards before being nailed by my pick, Union Rags.  He came back in late summer to win the Grade 1 Haskell Invitational at Monmouth Park and seemed poised to run through the important fall races with a legitimate shot at 3-year-old of the year.  But then he came down with a severe case of colic and even worse, laminitis.  The latter is nearly always fatal in thoroughbreds.  But his connections and the medical teams worked tirelessly to not only save Paynter but get him back to the races.  It was a remarkable story that earned the NTRA "Moment of the Year" award.  Well, today he finally made his comeback appearance.  It was obvious that he had nothing to prove as he was already a Grade 1 winner and worth a fortune at the stud barn.  He was being returned to races because his connections believed he was ready to launch a championship bid.  He was sent off as the 2/5 favorite and as my "Bet of the Day!" 

It was a MOST remarkable moment, and another winner for me!  WHOOO HOOOO!  Now to carry this momentum into tomorrow night's races!

Sunday June 9

BINGO!

I had read late this past week that the feature race at Monmouth Park on Sunday was the $200K Monmouth Stakes and the likely favorite was one of my favorite horses, Boisterous.  I had in fact made Boisterous my top choice in the Grade 1 Arlington Million last summer.  I looked at the entries online and he appeared to lay over the field.  I wanted to make him a prime play, but after the disappointments of Saturday - except on my "BET of the Day," I was reluctant to make the bet.  I watched the DRF "Race of the Day" video and both Mike Beer and Dan Illman, who nearly NEVER support the favorite both said that Boisterous was simply too good for these.  I decided that, like yesterday with Point of Entry - and ironically Boisterous came from the same connections:  Owners:  The Phipps Family, Trainer:  Shug McGaughey, jockey:  John Velazquez - he simply was "the horse."  If I'd been on track I probably would have gone the full $50 on him, but I pretty reluctant to bet that kind of bet online.  Don't really know why, just feel more comfortable making a "big" bet with real money to a real clerk.  So I went with a more-than-prime-time $30 to win.  Post time was scheduled for 5:28 pm, just when I'd be out to dinner with Kim and her identical twin hottie sister Karrie at one of our favorite spots, Tropical Acres.  So, I knew I'd have to wait for the replay.  We had a great time and when we got home I sat down at the computer to watch the replay.  I was hopeful that Boisterous would go off at a similar 1/2 or 3/5 like Point of Entry but had little confidence he actually would. Wonder of wonders the crowd let him go off at a very generous 1/1.........

 

The race was much, MUCH the same as Point of Entry as he made his move on the turn and won, but without dominating the race.  The even-money odds meant I cashed for $60 and with two big wins to close the weekend I felt a lot better about my handicapping heading into our big summer adventure next weekend when we will be with seventeen others at Churchill Downs for "Downs After Dark" on Stephen Foster night.  Very much looking forward to the entire evening, the racing and in particular seeing one of my very favorites, Royal Delta defend her title in the Grade 2 Fleur de Lis Stakes.

Saturday June 8

Belmont Stakes Day

BIG SCORE on my "BET of the DAY" But So Many Close Seconds!

When I'd finished handicapping for Saturday's big day of stakes races I thought I had a lot, A LOT of winners on my selection sheet.  Sadly, not the case :(  I got the hint right off the bat it might not be the kind of day I'd anticipated because as I'd handicapped five of my first seven selections were double or triple investments - which is unusual as these races are normally less predictable than the higher quality races found later on most racing cards - and I missed on my first FIVE!  The first race of the day at Belmont (11:35 post time) looked like a slam dunk with Master Cip having Beyer figures that towered over his rivals and the red-hot Joel Rosario riding.  The crowd saw what I did and he was bet down to 4/5.  He tracked the pace into the stretch and was moving to the lead, but I could tell he was not cruising by them like a 4/5 favorite.  He poked his head in front at the 16th pole, but then a 9/1 longshot just blew by all the struggling front-runners and I was a non-threatening third.  I thought this might bode well for me as my pick in the second was a longshot closer.  And Death Star ran like the 15/1 horse he was - never in it, 7th.  Doubled the bet at Monmouth and Small Secret was no where to be found at 6/5 despite his barn was a 36% winning barn first off the claim - wow.  Then It's Surreal was second at Woodbine in spite of the barn having huge 67% winners with 1st time Lasix.  Then live at Calder Bold Distinction was bet down from 6/1 to 9/5 with a move to a 40% rider-trainer team.....sixth.  Dave Liftin's "Best" on the Belmont card wasn't in any of the stakes races, but in a Maiden Special in the 4th where I was tripling the bet.  But Captain Davrick scratched.....sigh.  FINALLY a winner, but even that wasn't easy.  Vero's Hero was yet another first-time Kirk Ziadie runner for Team Calabrese with Edgar Zayas on board.  He was hammered down to 1/5 and looked the part entering the far turn.  But then a longshot came to him at the top of the lane, and at the furlong marker had moved past him!  You've got to be kidding me!  But he fought back along the rail and from my vantage point near the finish line I saw him dig down to hold on by a narrow head......hardly the kind of win you'd expect from a 1-5 favorite, but I was happy to finally cash a ticket (and a triple investment at that), even with a paltry $2.40 payoff. 

Coinciding with the big stakes action at Belmont both Arlington and Calder had multiple stakes races which were serving as prep races for their signature days later in the summer.  The firs of these at Arlington was at Arlington in their opener.  Work All Week had earned back-to-back triple Beyer speed figures while wiring his fields with sharp pace figures and looked to be an easy winner again today in spite of stepping up into state-bred stakes company in the Addison Camack Handicap.  He shot right to the front but had pressure from a longshot all the way through the far turn.  I was surprised he never spurted clear, but it appeared to me that the rider was just letting 'Week gallop along easily and he'd never asked him to run.  Sure enough as heads turned for home he suddenly opened up three lengths and I thought here we go.  But at the sixteenth pole a late runner had all the momentum and instead of galloping out strongly, 'Week looked to be weakening.  I could tell it would be close and it was.... PHOTO FINISH!  I watched the slow-motion replay several times and I really thought I'd won or even a dead heat......but no, second.  WOW - that kind of day?  Sigh......

In the early opener at Hollywood I was against the favorite and took 5/1 Bank the Eight.  Second best - yes, second, again.  At Churchill I had another price play at 9/1 - never in it when fifth.  Finally the stakes action started at Belmont, kicked off by the listed Easy Goer Stakes.  My pick was Power Broker who'd won the Grade 1 Frontrunner at Santa Anita, at this distance, last November as the pep for the Breeders' Cup Juvenile.  He just looked much the best on paper to me and I toyed with the idea of upping my investment from a double bet to a "prime time" bet, but I didn't.  Not sure if it was the ultra-slow start to the day or not, but I stuck with my original betting plan - should have gone with my gut.  He was a dominant winner under Rosie Napravnik.  I'll take the nearly $25 payoff. 

Next at Churchill Downs my pick dueled through the lane before finishing a very close 4th at 2/1.  Back to Chicago with yet another "obvious" winner - like Work All Week had been, not.  My former student and now top jockey Rosemary Hoemeister had taken the mount on Que Posse two races back when this runner had been claimed and she rode her to a big win.  Right back in her next she dominated again for Rosie.  Today she looked, on paper, much the best again.  She was tracking the pace as they spun out of the turn and she only had to collar the double-digit front-runner. Rose asked Que Posse for run and she ran right up to the leader and looked poised to run right on by, but as they hit the furlong pole it became obvious that the leader was not giving in.  Heads up and heads down the length of the stretch and again it was a PHOTO FINISH!  Again as I watched the slow-motion replays I thought I'd won, then no, then yes.....finally the photo came up....... 

YES, finally a photo win!  My first thought was that this would be the winner that would trigger the start of what I was sure to be a big run of winners through the remainder of the day.  Proven Warrior was a triple investment for me next up at Hollywood.  Even though I know that it's unlikely for a maiden runner to run back to a huge Beyer from a debut race, even a regression by ten points would make him the easiest of winners.  He sat fourth three wide into the turn, and like what seems to happen so often at Hollywood, when he made his move coming out of the turn he was forced nearly five wide which doesn't look bad ON the turn, but as the rail runners straighten out, all of the sudden he was four lengths behind, and his middle-move rally was negated.  He surged again and as they hit the final fifty yards it was a head-bobbing finish.  Even track announcer Vic Stauffer said "that may be a dead heat, no more than a quarter inch separating those two."  Yes, another PHOTO FINISH!  And like the first two the more I watched the replays I thought yes, no, then yes I think I've won.  The numbers came up......

Sigh, second, AGAIN!  At Calder I went with a 9/1 longshot - fifth, then in the Grade 2 True North I thought Caixa Electronica could defend his title with a big late run.  I debated about going with Bob Baffert's Fast Bullet who has immense talent and is lightly raced.  But when I looked his two big wins they both were in his second start off a layoff and both had come when moving from traditional dirt at Santa Anita to the cushion surface at Hollywood.  First off the layoff on traditional dirt - across the country in New York no less - I went with the locally based Todd Pletcher runner. He just didn't fire and Fast Bullet was an easy winner.  At Monmouth I was an even 4th with the tepid 5/2 favorite; at Arlington I went with the back class of Turallure - a former Grade 1 winner today in a listed stakes.  He made a big move on the turn at 9/2 and I was thinking of the $50+ payout and then he flattened through the lane to be fifth.  Doubled the bet on Antonacci who looked to scored as the speed of the race for trainer Wesley Ward and the hot apprentice rider.  When I circled him in the Form however I recalled how on Opening Day I'd backed this combination twice and gotten two less-than-inspiring rides.  Fourth at 8/5......sigh, again.  In the Calder stakes I had picked nearly all price plays as none of the favorites looked solid to me.  To my credit, all four of them WERE won by price horses......unfortunately only one of them was the horse I bet on.  But that came in the first of the quartet, the Unbridled Stakes.  I thought R Free Roll had the kind of pace figures that would take him not only to the lead, but to an easy lead.  I was dead-on as he was quickly clear by nearly five lengths.  But when the time of :21 and change was posted I thought he'd gone too fast.  Nope....he walked with it handily.  When I made the bet about eight minutes to post he'd been bet down to 5/2.  And from my vantage point on the rail, without my glasses, it looked like that was the price at post time.  But after he romped home as an easy winner - in stakes record time - and I walked in to check out the payout, I saw the odds were NINE-to-two.....and I'd hit a nice $11 winner.  So wishing I'd at least doubled the bet.  Still, my minimum play got back close to $30. 

It was only the third winner on the day for me as I turned to page two of my selection sheet.  SURELY, more winners are to come and I'm bound to have a big finish to get "my 30%" by the end of the day.  When I cashed this ticket it was 3:30 in the afternoon.  Over the span of the next TEN races, leading up to 5 pm I didn't cash a single ticket.  And I have to admit that as five o'clock approached and I looked at my next several bets, my "big" bets of the day I was actually concerned that I didn't have enough cash on hand to cover my planned investments unless I started cashing tickets!! 

Next up was the Grade 2 Charlie Whittingham at Hollywood.  I thought Slim Shadey was the best horse, but might be compromised as he does his best loose on the lead.....but I also agreed with Brad Free's analysis that he was simply the fastest horse.  Nope - tried to rate, it was obvious he was uncomfortable off the lead....5th.  A class dropper at Churchill with a hot-riding Corie Lanerie was a distant 6th.....In the Grade 1 Just A Game over the yielding Belmont turf I thought I had a real solid upset play in Euro import Laugh Out Loud.  He would be close to a moderate pace, had Hall of Fame rider Gary Stevens, and had run very well over soft Euro going.  At 15/1 in the program I knew I'd get a fair price.  And I was encouraged when Dave Liftin and two other DRF selectors listed him on top.  He pressed the pace at 6/1 to the top of the lane and looked poised to take over when he just stopped and faded to the back.  Calder....my 12/1 upset pick in the Leave Me Alone Stakes was the early betting favorite, floated back to a fair 4/1 and then was a distant 6th.  At Woodbine I liked Click in the Bold Ruckus Stakes.  This was a six panel turf sprint and while Click had never been on the grass he had the breeding and most of all he looked loose on an easy lead.  He was coasting on the lead and then was challenged inside the 1/8th pole, but he fought back in the final 100 yards to put his head in front when out of nowhere a closer came flying.....PHOTO FINISH!  Not nearly as close as the previous ones as I was pretty sure I had NOT won.....nope, second, AGAIN! 

On Opening Night at Churchill Downs the feature was the Grade 3 Derby Trial going a one-turn mile.  I had debated between two Todd Pletcher runners - Capo Bastone and Forty Tales.  The former was the most appealing since Forty Tales had disappointed me twice at Gulfstream.  Both rallied late with Forty Tales getting a slightly better trip and in a close finish I was second.  Well, today the Grade 2 Woody Stephens at seven furlongs looked to be a virtual replay.  And I wrote in my analysis of the race that it would probably once again come down to trip.  Because I'd liked Capo Bastone last time and because with the win Forty Tales - I thought - would be bet down I went with the longer priced Capo Bastone.  At post time they were both 8/1 and it was again Forty Tales that ran big - with the aforementioned Joel Rosario (AGAIN!) to pay over $19......sigh......more zigging when I should be sagging.  In the Issac Murphy Handicap at Arlington it was obvious to everyone that my selection, Algonquin Posse was the "easy winner."  Sent off at 3/5 he was a distant and never-threatening 7th.  WOW.......The upset pick at Calder in their U Can Do It Stakes for me was Givhans Ferry who I thought had a chance to steal it.  Instead another runner I've bet on in her last three wins shot to the front and while I dueled with her to the turn, she kept going, I didn't and she posted the $20 upset.  The streak of losers finally was snapped when I made the minimum bet on Srumdiddlyupmtious in Monmouth's Fort Monmouth Stakes.  It was slated for 5 1/2 furlongs on the grass, but like here they'd had a lot of rain and I thought she would love the main track.  She ROMPED as the 6/5 favorite.  Of course this was one of the few races where I bet the minimum.....zigging & sagging again. 

No worries as next up I had back-to-back "BEST" bets and I had a lot of confidence in both.  Daisy Devine looked to wire the Grade 3 Mint Julep, and could rate off the pace if need be.  She had finished 2nd in a Grade 1 and close third in a Grade 2 in her last two starts and looked just much the class of the field.  She surged to the front at the 1/8th pole and was edging clear when the second choice came absolutely flying down the middle of the course and blew right by her in the final 100 yards.  Really?  Second again?  Yes.  Moments later it was my "BEST" at Hollywood.  Declassify had earned a huge 101 Beyer in his debut, and like the earlier Hollywood race I wasn't going to be surprised with a slight regression.  But he'd been working lights out for Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert and he had the look of a future stakes star to me.  Right to the front and running easily.  As they hit the far turn the second choice was moving through along the rail and looked to shoot inside of Declassify.  The rider had to tap on the brakes, but it appeared to me that the horse just didn't want to try and squeeze by.  My initial reaction was "uh oh, objection coming" but then Declassify took off in the lane and won by ten plus widening lengths even drawing a comment from track announcer Vic Stauffer, "Wow, this is one good looking colt!"  That puts to bed any thoughts of objection as no one was a threat to beat this horse.  I even filmed my winning moment and highlighted my sheet and then.......

Seriously?  My oldest son Jeff called from Houston as he was playing some races.  He said, "What's up with that?  Even the announcers on TVG can't believe it!"  They kept running it over and over again and I was convinced with every angle that not only did Declassify run a straight course, but the horse on the rail simply didn't want to go through the seam.  But the more they looked at it I kept thinking....."With the way today's gone, they'll take him down."  Well surprise, surprise......

 

That win meant I had enough cash to make my "BIG" bet coming up.  Jackson Bend disappointed in his comeback in the Ponche Handicap.  I wasn't all that surprised, he'd been off for quite a while and was making his first start since coming out of retirement...but he loves the Calder strip (7/5-1-1) and I thought his natural ability would be enough to win.... evenly to be 5th.  And now was the big moment, my "BET of the Day."  In analyzing the Belmont stakes races I had written that Point of Entry in the Grade 1 Manhattan was my "Bet of the Day" and that I planned to invest $50 to win.  As I wrote in my analysis, I have NEVER been a fan of Point of Entry - even while he was racking up four straight Grade 1 wins last summer.  Why?  Because in all those wins he didn't beat anybody.  And in the really big race - the Grade 1 Breeders' Cup Turf - he was second.  Many thought it was the trip, but I just don't think he's as good as advertised.  So, then why is he the "Bet of the Day" today?  Because today's field is just like all those fields last summer......of the nine lining up in the gate to face him today, SEVEN have NEVER won a graded stakes; on has ONE Grade 3 win and the other has ONE Grade 2 win.  Conversely Point of Entry has FOUR Grade 1 wins.  His last four Beyers (107, 104, 105, 105) would take a career best to beat him; in his last start he beat Animal Kingdom at Gulfstream, and that guy came back to win the $6 million Dubai World Cup.  I thought Point of Entry laid over the field.  Heading out to the races I even considered doubling my planned bet to make it $100 to win.  My only concern was that Point of Entry had been entered to face Horse of the Year Wise Dan on Derby Day in the Grade 1 Woodford Reserve at Churchill - and I was ALL against him, all for Wise Dan (who did win) - but he scratched because of the soft turf.  With all the rain in New York I was curious if he'd run today......which I expected he would.  Prior to the race I read that his trainer, Hall of Fame conditioner Shug McGaughey, said that there wasn't a horse on the grounds training better than he was and he needed to run today.  Still, soft ground, off since March, giving anywhere from 5 to 11 pounds to his rivals AND I have never been a big fan?  But I was ready to go all in - but the way the day was going?  I looked at myself and said, "I know what I'm doing......my handicapping is spot on....he WILL win - stick with the plan!"  And not only did I, but I upped it to $75 to win.  He rated in fourth to the turn and then began his move.  At the furlong pole he collared the longshot leader, but was NOT swooping by like a big favorite (here's the "real" Point of Entry I thought - good enough to win, but NOT a dominating force).  And then on the outside he came another long shot with all the momentum.  Really? He's going to get run down I thought?  But no, he reached down and held them both at bay, actually edging clear!  He went off at better than 1-2 on the board and I cashed for nearly $120! 

My faith in my handicapping is renewed!  Even the gal I was betting with today when I asked for the $75 win ticket gave me "that look" and said, "Bring it in!"  When I cashed with her she gave me a smile and said "I'm glad you got that one!"  Like I've often said, I would prefer to make money and I want to hit my fair share of winners, but what gives me the biggest thrill is to make a "BEST BET" play and be proven right. 

It was no surprise that in the Belmont Stakes, the final leg of the Triple Crown, my pick faded to 12th.  I was "right" in my analysis in that I didn't think any of the "favorites" would win.  Ironically the winner was Palace Malice who I had picked in the Louisiana Derby (his worst career finish) and in the Blue Grass (at 7/1 he had the lead in deep stretch and was caught on the wire)....and he paid nearly $30.  And in the last play of the day Scarlett Strike again rallied from the back of the pack to JUST miss, second, having gone wide on the turn, just like in her last start.  Only seven wins from thirty-six plays - not going to make money that way.  But as you can tell from the journal - or better yet from the highlight video below - I was oh-so-close all day and saw some great races; AND cashed with the big money on the line.

Thursday June 6

The Right Win Pct. - No Profits

That about sums up the day...... I won a solid 32% of my picks, but fell short of a profitable day - I went 1-for-3 with my lone triple investments and both Brad Free's "Best" at Hollywood and Dave Liftin's "Best" at Belmont missed. I had planned on going out to the races today, but the weather has been awful with the remnants of a Tropical Storm bring deluges throughout the day.  And though today's weather was for the most part clear, I decided to play online.  The started strongly when Diamondesque proved much the best in my first selection, the second at Calder in a double investment.  Then after a credible fourth at 13/1 at Churchill I went against the favorite in my first selection at Belmont and Smokin Candy nailed the dueling favorites in deep stretch to pay a nice $6.60 when I again had doubled the bet. 

That was at 1:30 and I didn't cash another ticket until 4 pm!  During that sequence I ran 5th at even money at Churchill; 3rd at 2/5 at Belmont and 6th at 3/5 at Calder.  I also led all the way into the stretch at 2/1 at Calder and at a big 6/1 at Belmont.  So, I had my chances, but couldn't find the winner's circle. 

Finally in the finale at Calder, my "BEST" of the day at Calder I had a nice win.  The race was carded for the turf at 5 1/2 furlongs, but with all the rain I was certain it would come off the lawn, and it did.  I thought that 1a-Cameo Lady looked MUCH the best of the Team Calabrese entry as she was first-time Kirk Ziadie (a 42% win angle) and had Edgar Zayas riding today.....those two are winning together at a big 50%.  Sure enough, Cameo Lady dominated the race at better than even money and I cashed for over $30. 

Right back in the opener at Hollywood where Big Wag surged to the front at the furlong marker and edged clear at 6/5 and I thought I was on my way.  But then Jeter disappointed at 3/5 at Belmont.  He had Joel Rosario, a triple Beyer out of a dominating win which was a KEY race, but couldn't even hit the board, fourth.  No worries, as Wash Park scored for me at Churchill with a strong rally as the 9/5 favorite and my double investment - nearly $30 more in the bank. 

Two misses - Delaware turf and Belmont finale when 2nd at 4/1 - and cashed at Hollywood in a mile and a quarter optional claimer on the turf. with Miss Pippa.  I had two late bets at Hollywood and a win by either of them would provide me with a solid profit on the day.  But Cabage (Free's Best) was only second best and then in my "best" of the day out west Biorhythm rallied very wide into the lane, costing him multiple lengths.....fourth.  But, as I've often said, I would like nothing better than to make money at the races, but my focus is on picking winners and I'd had a good day of handicapping.  Looking forward to a big day Saturday on Belmont Stakes Day.

Saturday June 1 - A New Month

A Light Weekend Of Racing

This weekend was a lull in major racing around the country.  Next weekend is Belmont Stakes day so most of the eastern stables are pointing for the multiple graded stakes scheduled for that day and the following Saturday night is Stephen Foster night at "Downs After Dark" over the Churchill Downs surface - we'll be there! - and most Midwestern runners are pointing for one of those major stakes.  Not that I couldn't have found many opportunities to handicap, because they pay the same on a maiden claimer as they do on a major graded stakes......but I had promised the ladies at Cypress Bay High that I would help the set up the Bank United Center on the Miami University campus for Sunday's graduation.  I didn't know who was joining us for the morning's activities, but I can tell you I would have been truly excited had I known in advance that it would be just these hotties and me in the arena.  LOTS of eye-candy for me and I enjoyed every minute of it! 

But, I digress from the racing....... Penn National Race Course is a track I play maybe once a year only because they have racing under the lights and I typically have at least one day of marathon racing.  But this year their racing secretary and marketing department had a great plan - they initiated the "Penn Mile Night" program and put up $500K for the feature race and built six undercard stakes races.  The response was overwhelming with many big runners showing up and nearly all the east coast/Midwestern jockeys coming in for the night.  I handicapped the card and had a play in all seven stakes.  I added two selections from Belmont, where they had a series of state-bred stakes races on the card; had two races from the Churchill stakes card; and one play in the feature at Hollywood.  The results were three wins from ten selections - a very solid 30% - but like the same tune being played this summer, the management of the money left the bottom line for the first day of racing of June in the red. 

After spending the morning with "my girls" in Miami I stopped at Calder to make my bets and then headed home.  It looked like it would be a great day when in my first play of the day, the Bouwerie Stakes from Belmont my selection, Lovely Syn blew her rivals away.  The final furlong of the stretch she was geared down to a canter and still won by double-digit lengths.  Ultra-impressive! 

A half hour later it was time for the Affirmed Success Stakes going 6 1/2 furlongs over the Belmont main track.  Entered and listed as the morning line favorite was NY State-bred champion Saginaw.  He has literally owned the state-bred ranks in all races going one turn, and many wondered if he would be able to continue his winning ways after nearly being beaten in his last start.  I was NOT one of those doubters.  He's better at a one-turn mile or at seven panels, but he's proven himself over and over again to have the heart of a champion.  He made his move on the turn and was grinding away at the leader in the final furlong.  Briefly there was a question of him getting to the leader, but he proved he's all class but edging clear in the shadow of the wire and I was two-for-two to start the day! 

The weather in Louisville was wet and so my pick in the Opening Verse Stakes, scheduled for the turf, scratched when the race was moved to the main track.  But I still had my top selection in the Grade 3 Aristides.  Last season Rothko had been very impressive running away from the field, and he looked to do the same again here.  I wanted to know how Jill Byrne felt because I had picked him on name alone, and when I read he was her top pick I had a lot of confidence.  He set the pace to the sixteenth pole but gave way to finish third.  It was three hours later, at 6 pm when the Penn National card kicked off and I missed in the opener when Dorhy's Aurora faltered as the even-money favorite.  The second as the Pennsylvania's Governor's Cup, going five furlongs on the turf.  I had been initially drawn to the Penn card because I read that 20-time stakes winner Ben's Cat was running here.  But when I handicapped the race I did not like the fact he was drawn in post eleven nor did I like the fact that on of his poorest efforts had come in this race last year.  Those two factors made me think it was a good spot to look for an upset.  He was facing off with Todd Pletcher's Bridgetown and multiple graded stakes winner Chamberlain Bridge.....maybe one of those two wake up tonight?  But I was immediately drawn to the rail horse, former claimer Tightend Touchdown.  He had won two straight after a photo finish loss in his first start off the claim for trainer Jason Servis.  What impressed me first was that in these three starts for Servis, 'Touchdown had faced twenty horses through twelve points of call.  He had led ALL TWENTY of them through eleven of the twelve calls, finishing a neck back of ONE of them on the wire of the first.  He WOULD be on the lead. His pace calls also indicated that not only would he have the lead, but it looked to me he'd have a CLEAR lead....and at this short sprint distance that could be huge as the others would have to negotiate clean trips to run him down.  Finally, his last two races had earned Beyer figures BETTER than those being earned by the "stars" of the field.  In fact, if you go back to the bottom of favorite Ben's Cat's past performances, over a span of eleven turf sprints, he had a SINGLE number that would contest Tightend Touchdown.  At 8/1 in the program it was my UPSET SPECIAL!  As the gates sprung open 'Touchdown had been bet down to 3/1 but he immediately was clear on the lead.  By the time they hit the turn he was clear by three plus lengths and was running in hand for jockey Javier Castellano.  I knew I was home free.  It was a virtual certainty when on the turn a longshot bore out badly and carried both Chamberlain Bridge and Ben's Cat almost to the outer fence.....there would be no late runner to worry about!  Bridgetown was chasing through the lane, but he's not been at his career best and he settled for second best tonight.  The payoff was a nice $8.80 and I cashed for well over $40!  WHOOO HOOO! 

Unfortunately that proved to be the end of the winning tickets.  In the featured $500K Penn Mile I had made multiple stakes winner Noble Tune my "best" of the night.  He was four-for-five in his career, the lone loss being a second in the Breeders' Cup.  But when he turned from home his usual big kick was not there - he just ran flat through the lane and was off the board for the first time in his career.  Big disappointment.  Fifteen minutes later the Grade 2 Californian saw post-time favorite Liason run second as the even money favorite behind a runner who had been second behind top older handicap leader Game On Dude in both his last two starts.  I liked Liason, and like Rothko earlier, I had been encouraged that he was DRF's Brad Free's "best" of the day.  Candyman E should have been either on the lead or pressing the front end going five furlongs in the Penn Dash, but instead was last of five as the 4/5 favorite - only third on the wire.  I had one last chance to get close to even in the final race of the night in the second heat of the Penn Dash.  Manito was the 9/5 second choice and was dueling with the leaders turning for home.  It appeared to me that he was the only one of the three that was not being pushed to his maximum effort yet as heads turned for home and I felt pretty good about my chances.  Sure enough, at the 1/8th pole he began to pull away, but at the sixteenth pole he fell.  Sigh.......  We are less than two weeks away from our big summer adventure - off to Louisville for "Downs After Dark" and then on to Alaska!  My plans are to get a full day of racing in this week, probably Thursday, and then spend Saturday at the races for Belmont Stakes day.  I wish the timing was different because we'll have Kim's beautiful twin sister Karrie here for the weekend, but racing calls!