Summer 2013

Saturday June 8

Belmont Stakes Day

BIG SCORE on my "BET of the DAY" But So Many Close Seconds!

When I'd finished handicapping for Saturday's big day of stakes races I thought I had a lot, A LOT of winners on my selection sheet.  Sadly, not the case :(  I got the hint right off the bat it might not be the kind of day I'd anticipated because as I'd handicapped five of my first seven selections were double or triple investments - which is unusual as these races are normally less predictable than the higher quality races found later on most racing cards - and I missed on my first FIVE!  The first race of the day at Belmont (11:35 post time) looked like a slam dunk with Master Cip having Beyer figures that towered over his rivals and the red-hot Joel Rosario riding.  The crowd saw what I did and he was bet down to 4/5.  He tracked the pace into the stretch and was moving to the lead, but I could tell he was not cruising by them like a 4/5 favorite.  He poked his head in front at the 16th pole, but then a 9/1 longshot just blew by all the struggling front-runners and I was a non-threatening third.  I thought this might bode well for me as my pick in the second was a longshot closer.  And Death Star ran like the 15/1 horse he was - never in it, 7th.  Doubled the bet at Monmouth and Small Secret was no where to be found at 6/5 despite his barn was a 36% winning barn first off the claim - wow.  Then It's Surreal was second at Woodbine in spite of the barn having huge 67% winners with 1st time Lasix.  Then live at Calder Bold Distinction was bet down from 6/1 to 9/5 with a move to a 40% rider-trainer team.....sixth.  Dave Liftin's "Best" on the Belmont card wasn't in any of the stakes races, but in a Maiden Special in the 4th where I was tripling the bet.  But Captain Davrick scratched.....sigh.  FINALLY a winner, but even that wasn't easy.  Vero's Hero was yet another first-time Kirk Ziadie runner for Team Calabrese with Edgar Zayas on board.  He was hammered down to 1/5 and looked the part entering the far turn.  But then a longshot came to him at the top of the lane, and at the furlong marker had moved past him!  You've got to be kidding me!  But he fought back along the rail and from my vantage point near the finish line I saw him dig down to hold on by a narrow head......hardly the kind of win you'd expect from a 1-5 favorite, but I was happy to finally cash a ticket (and a triple investment at that), even with a paltry $2.40 payoff. 

Coinciding with the big stakes action at Belmont both Arlington and Calder had multiple stakes races which were serving as prep races for their signature days later in the summer.  The firs of these at Arlington was at Arlington in their opener.  Work All Week had earned back-to-back triple Beyer speed figures while wiring his fields with sharp pace figures and looked to be an easy winner again today in spite of stepping up into state-bred stakes company in the Addison Camack Handicap.  He shot right to the front but had pressure from a longshot all the way through the far turn.  I was surprised he never spurted clear, but it appeared to me that the rider was just letting 'Week gallop along easily and he'd never asked him to run.  Sure enough as heads turned for home he suddenly opened up three lengths and I thought here we go.  But at the sixteenth pole a late runner had all the momentum and instead of galloping out strongly, 'Week looked to be weakening.  I could tell it would be close and it was.... PHOTO FINISH!  I watched the slow-motion replay several times and I really thought I'd won or even a dead heat......but no, second.  WOW - that kind of day?  Sigh......

In the early opener at Hollywood I was against the favorite and took 5/1 Bank the Eight.  Second best - yes, second, again.  At Churchill I had another price play at 9/1 - never in it when fifth.  Finally the stakes action started at Belmont, kicked off by the listed Easy Goer Stakes.  My pick was Power Broker who'd won the Grade 1 Frontrunner at Santa Anita, at this distance, last November as the pep for the Breeders' Cup Juvenile.  He just looked much the best on paper to me and I toyed with the idea of upping my investment from a double bet to a "prime time" bet, but I didn't.  Not sure if it was the ultra-slow start to the day or not, but I stuck with my original betting plan - should have gone with my gut.  He was a dominant winner under Rosie Napravnik.  I'll take the nearly $25 payoff. 

Next at Churchill Downs my pick dueled through the lane before finishing a very close 4th at 2/1.  Back to Chicago with yet another "obvious" winner - like Work All Week had been, not.  My former student and now top jockey Rosemary Hoemeister had taken the mount on Que Posse two races back when this runner had been claimed and she rode her to a big win.  Right back in her next she dominated again for Rosie.  Today she looked, on paper, much the best again.  She was tracking the pace as they spun out of the turn and she only had to collar the double-digit front-runner. Rose asked Que Posse for run and she ran right up to the leader and looked poised to run right on by, but as they hit the furlong pole it became obvious that the leader was not giving in.  Heads up and heads down the length of the stretch and again it was a PHOTO FINISH!  Again as I watched the slow-motion replays I thought I'd won, then no, then yes.....finally the photo came up....... 

YES, finally a photo win!  My first thought was that this would be the winner that would trigger the start of what I was sure to be a big run of winners through the remainder of the day.  Proven Warrior was a triple investment for me next up at Hollywood.  Even though I know that it's unlikely for a maiden runner to run back to a huge Beyer from a debut race, even a regression by ten points would make him the easiest of winners.  He sat fourth three wide into the turn, and like what seems to happen so often at Hollywood, when he made his move coming out of the turn he was forced nearly five wide which doesn't look bad ON the turn, but as the rail runners straighten out, all of the sudden he was four lengths behind, and his middle-move rally was negated.  He surged again and as they hit the final fifty yards it was a head-bobbing finish.  Even track announcer Vic Stauffer said "that may be a dead heat, no more than a quarter inch separating those two."  Yes, another PHOTO FINISH!  And like the first two the more I watched the replays I thought yes, no, then yes I think I've won.  The numbers came up......

Sigh, second, AGAIN!  At Calder I went with a 9/1 longshot - fifth, then in the Grade 2 True North I thought Caixa Electronica could defend his title with a big late run.  I debated about going with Bob Baffert's Fast Bullet who has immense talent and is lightly raced.  But when I looked his two big wins they both were in his second start off a layoff and both had come when moving from traditional dirt at Santa Anita to the cushion surface at Hollywood.  First off the layoff on traditional dirt - across the country in New York no less - I went with the locally based Todd Pletcher runner. He just didn't fire and Fast Bullet was an easy winner.  At Monmouth I was an even 4th with the tepid 5/2 favorite; at Arlington I went with the back class of Turallure - a former Grade 1 winner today in a listed stakes.  He made a big move on the turn at 9/2 and I was thinking of the $50+ payout and then he flattened through the lane to be fifth.  Doubled the bet on Antonacci who looked to scored as the speed of the race for trainer Wesley Ward and the hot apprentice rider.  When I circled him in the Form however I recalled how on Opening Day I'd backed this combination twice and gotten two less-than-inspiring rides.  Fourth at 8/5......sigh, again.  In the Calder stakes I had picked nearly all price plays as none of the favorites looked solid to me.  To my credit, all four of them WERE won by price horses......unfortunately only one of them was the horse I bet on.  But that came in the first of the quartet, the Unbridled Stakes.  I thought R Free Roll had the kind of pace figures that would take him not only to the lead, but to an easy lead.  I was dead-on as he was quickly clear by nearly five lengths.  But when the time of :21 and change was posted I thought he'd gone too fast.  Nope....he walked with it handily.  When I made the bet about eight minutes to post he'd been bet down to 5/2.  And from my vantage point on the rail, without my glasses, it looked like that was the price at post time.  But after he romped home as an easy winner - in stakes record time - and I walked in to check out the payout, I saw the odds were NINE-to-two.....and I'd hit a nice $11 winner.  So wishing I'd at least doubled the bet.  Still, my minimum play got back close to $30. 

It was only the third winner on the day for me as I turned to page two of my selection sheet.  SURELY, more winners are to come and I'm bound to have a big finish to get "my 30%" by the end of the day.  When I cashed this ticket it was 3:30 in the afternoon.  Over the span of the next TEN races, leading up to 5 pm I didn't cash a single ticket.  And I have to admit that as five o'clock approached and I looked at my next several bets, my "big" bets of the day I was actually concerned that I didn't have enough cash on hand to cover my planned investments unless I started cashing tickets!! 

Next up was the Grade 2 Charlie Whittingham at Hollywood.  I thought Slim Shadey was the best horse, but might be compromised as he does his best loose on the lead.....but I also agreed with Brad Free's analysis that he was simply the fastest horse.  Nope - tried to rate, it was obvious he was uncomfortable off the lead....5th.  A class dropper at Churchill with a hot-riding Corie Lanerie was a distant 6th.....In the Grade 1 Just A Game over the yielding Belmont turf I thought I had a real solid upset play in Euro import Laugh Out Loud.  He would be close to a moderate pace, had Hall of Fame rider Gary Stevens, and had run very well over soft Euro going.  At 15/1 in the program I knew I'd get a fair price.  And I was encouraged when Dave Liftin and two other DRF selectors listed him on top.  He pressed the pace at 6/1 to the top of the lane and looked poised to take over when he just stopped and faded to the back.  Calder....my 12/1 upset pick in the Leave Me Alone Stakes was the early betting favorite, floated back to a fair 4/1 and then was a distant 6th.  At Woodbine I liked Click in the Bold Ruckus Stakes.  This was a six panel turf sprint and while Click had never been on the grass he had the breeding and most of all he looked loose on an easy lead.  He was coasting on the lead and then was challenged inside the 1/8th pole, but he fought back in the final 100 yards to put his head in front when out of nowhere a closer came flying.....PHOTO FINISH!  Not nearly as close as the previous ones as I was pretty sure I had NOT won.....nope, second, AGAIN! 

On Opening Night at Churchill Downs the feature was the Grade 3 Derby Trial going a one-turn mile.  I had debated between two Todd Pletcher runners - Capo Bastone and Forty Tales.  The former was the most appealing since Forty Tales had disappointed me twice at Gulfstream.  Both rallied late with Forty Tales getting a slightly better trip and in a close finish I was second.  Well, today the Grade 2 Woody Stephens at seven furlongs looked to be a virtual replay.  And I wrote in my analysis of the race that it would probably once again come down to trip.  Because I'd liked Capo Bastone last time and because with the win Forty Tales - I thought - would be bet down I went with the longer priced Capo Bastone.  At post time they were both 8/1 and it was again Forty Tales that ran big - with the aforementioned Joel Rosario (AGAIN!) to pay over $19......sigh......more zigging when I should be sagging.  In the Issac Murphy Handicap at Arlington it was obvious to everyone that my selection, Algonquin Posse was the "easy winner."  Sent off at 3/5 he was a distant and never-threatening 7th.  WOW.......The upset pick at Calder in their U Can Do It Stakes for me was Givhans Ferry who I thought had a chance to steal it.  Instead another runner I've bet on in her last three wins shot to the front and while I dueled with her to the turn, she kept going, I didn't and she posted the $20 upset.  The streak of losers finally was snapped when I made the minimum bet on Srumdiddlyupmtious in Monmouth's Fort Monmouth Stakes.  It was slated for 5 1/2 furlongs on the grass, but like here they'd had a lot of rain and I thought she would love the main track.  She ROMPED as the 6/5 favorite.  Of course this was one of the few races where I bet the minimum.....zigging & sagging again. 

No worries as next up I had back-to-back "BEST" bets and I had a lot of confidence in both.  Daisy Devine looked to wire the Grade 3 Mint Julep, and could rate off the pace if need be.  She had finished 2nd in a Grade 1 and close third in a Grade 2 in her last two starts and looked just much the class of the field.  She surged to the front at the 1/8th pole and was edging clear when the second choice came absolutely flying down the middle of the course and blew right by her in the final 100 yards.  Really?  Second again?  Yes.  Moments later it was my "BEST" at Hollywood.  Declassify had earned a huge 101 Beyer in his debut, and like the earlier Hollywood race I wasn't going to be surprised with a slight regression.  But he'd been working lights out for Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert and he had the look of a future stakes star to me.  Right to the front and running easily.  As they hit the far turn the second choice was moving through along the rail and looked to shoot inside of Declassify.  The rider had to tap on the brakes, but it appeared to me that the horse just didn't want to try and squeeze by.  My initial reaction was "uh oh, objection coming" but then Declassify took off in the lane and won by ten plus widening lengths even drawing a comment from track announcer Vic Stauffer, "Wow, this is one good looking colt!"  That puts to bed any thoughts of objection as no one was a threat to beat this horse.  I even filmed my winning moment and highlighted my sheet and then.......

Seriously?  My oldest son Jeff called from Houston as he was playing some races.  He said, "What's up with that?  Even the announcers on TVG can't believe it!"  They kept running it over and over again and I was convinced with every angle that not only did Declassify run a straight course, but the horse on the rail simply didn't want to go through the seam.  But the more they looked at it I kept thinking....."With the way today's gone, they'll take him down."  Well surprise, surprise......

 

That win meant I had enough cash to make my "BIG" bet coming up.  Jackson Bend disappointed in his comeback in the Ponche Handicap.  I wasn't all that surprised, he'd been off for quite a while and was making his first start since coming out of retirement...but he loves the Calder strip (7/5-1-1) and I thought his natural ability would be enough to win.... evenly to be 5th.  And now was the big moment, my "BET of the Day."  In analyzing the Belmont stakes races I had written that Point of Entry in the Grade 1 Manhattan was my "Bet of the Day" and that I planned to invest $50 to win.  As I wrote in my analysis, I have NEVER been a fan of Point of Entry - even while he was racking up four straight Grade 1 wins last summer.  Why?  Because in all those wins he didn't beat anybody.  And in the really big race - the Grade 1 Breeders' Cup Turf - he was second.  Many thought it was the trip, but I just don't think he's as good as advertised.  So, then why is he the "Bet of the Day" today?  Because today's field is just like all those fields last summer......of the nine lining up in the gate to face him today, SEVEN have NEVER won a graded stakes; on has ONE Grade 3 win and the other has ONE Grade 2 win.  Conversely Point of Entry has FOUR Grade 1 wins.  His last four Beyers (107, 104, 105, 105) would take a career best to beat him; in his last start he beat Animal Kingdom at Gulfstream, and that guy came back to win the $6 million Dubai World Cup.  I thought Point of Entry laid over the field.  Heading out to the races I even considered doubling my planned bet to make it $100 to win.  My only concern was that Point of Entry had been entered to face Horse of the Year Wise Dan on Derby Day in the Grade 1 Woodford Reserve at Churchill - and I was ALL against him, all for Wise Dan (who did win) - but he scratched because of the soft turf.  With all the rain in New York I was curious if he'd run today......which I expected he would.  Prior to the race I read that his trainer, Hall of Fame conditioner Shug McGaughey, said that there wasn't a horse on the grounds training better than he was and he needed to run today.  Still, soft ground, off since March, giving anywhere from 5 to 11 pounds to his rivals AND I have never been a big fan?  But I was ready to go all in - but the way the day was going?  I looked at myself and said, "I know what I'm doing......my handicapping is spot on....he WILL win - stick with the plan!"  And not only did I, but I upped it to $75 to win.  He rated in fourth to the turn and then began his move.  At the furlong pole he collared the longshot leader, but was NOT swooping by like a big favorite (here's the "real" Point of Entry I thought - good enough to win, but NOT a dominating force).  And then on the outside he came another long shot with all the momentum.  Really? He's going to get run down I thought?  But no, he reached down and held them both at bay, actually edging clear!  He went off at better than 1-2 on the board and I cashed for nearly $120! 

My faith in my handicapping is renewed!  Even the gal I was betting with today when I asked for the $75 win ticket gave me "that look" and said, "Bring it in!"  When I cashed with her she gave me a smile and said "I'm glad you got that one!"  Like I've often said, I would prefer to make money and I want to hit my fair share of winners, but what gives me the biggest thrill is to make a "BEST BET" play and be proven right. 

It was no surprise that in the Belmont Stakes, the final leg of the Triple Crown, my pick faded to 12th.  I was "right" in my analysis in that I didn't think any of the "favorites" would win.  Ironically the winner was Palace Malice who I had picked in the Louisiana Derby (his worst career finish) and in the Blue Grass (at 7/1 he had the lead in deep stretch and was caught on the wire)....and he paid nearly $30.  And in the last play of the day Scarlett Strike again rallied from the back of the pack to JUST miss, second, having gone wide on the turn, just like in her last start.  Only seven wins from thirty-six plays - not going to make money that way.  But as you can tell from the journal - or better yet from the highlight video below - I was oh-so-close all day and saw some great races; AND cashed with the big money on the line.