Kentucky Derby Day 139

Kentucky Derby Analysis & Undercard Stakes Analysis

6-Churchill            5f    Turf Grade 3 Turf Sprint                    

1-Southern Dude (10/1) - Only 1-for-3 over the turf, but the last was a nice wire win and he's worked four times over the Louisville sod, including two bullet works.  Would not be a bad choice if rained to the main track....providing Leparoux can get him out of the gate from the rail.

2-Havelock (7/2) - He's won five of ten sprinting on the turf, and the last four wins showing on his resume are all photo finish wins!  His last, at the expense of my pick came as much through poor tactics (Leparoux, again) as Havelock being the best.  Obvious contender, but hard to believe he'll score back-to-back.

3-Regally Ready (4/1) - Has simply not been the same horse since winning the Grade 1 BC Turf Sprint in 2012, here.  But.....his last was off an eight month layoff and best of all - he is unbeaten over this course.  Hmmm, interesting.

4-Ghost Is Clear (9/2) - Another interesting runner....first, you can't ignore the hottest rider-trainer connection in America here:  Rosario / Maker.  And he's run well when sprinting over the turf (as well as over the main track).  Difficult to believe he'll win a Grade 3 when just last November you could have claimed him for $10K.  Rags to riches?

5-Cactus Son (30/1) - Before he's quickly dismissed as a longshot, consider this....last year in this same race he was closing fast to be third, beaten only 2 lengths at 25-1!  Uh oh!  Seems to have been in sharper form at the time though - you could do worse for price plays.

6-Chamberlain Bridge (4/1) - He's a SEVENTEEN time winner in turf sprints, a BC Champion over this course and has won 4-of-9 here.  But, he's nine now and has a single win over the last two years with three photo losses.  Wouldn't be a huge surprise, but seems a step slower these days.

7-Berlino de Tiger (15/1) - Third start in North America today will be part of the early pace picture before wilting under pressure.

8-Icon Ike (3/1) - Back-to-back career efforts, and wins.  He fits the track profile as a finisher, and has a good post to track the race flow.  Rosie the top rider in America has a live mount here.  Three works since that last race including a big bullet work over the Keeneland synthetic.  A major player in here.

7-Churchill            7f    Grade 1 Humana Distaff                     

1-Jamaican Smoke (5/1) - Speed on the rail, under Leparoux again, but since winning his entry-level allowance four back he's set the table in three straight stakes, only to surrender late.  COULD last today, but it's a big class rise here.

2-Rumor (5/2) - Beat the best west coast sprinting filly last time out in the Grade 3 Las Flores in a near-career best speed figure performance.  Has shown the ability to sit just off the pace or rally from farther back which means she won't be pace dependent, nor hounded on the front end.  Hall of Fame Mike Smith has been on board for her last four, of which two were stakes wins at 6 1/2 furlongs.  Win contender.

3-Same Cross (5/1) - Has been heavily favored in all four starts and you have to be impressed that not only did she not disappoint in debut maiden run, but was impressive in her next two as she cleared the nw1x and nw2x conditions easily.  Toss the turf effort last out.  Moves not only into stakes company, but all the way up to Grade 1 here.  Same connections as the turf sprint, the 30% team of Napravnik-Jones.  Dangerous.

4-Emma's Encore (8/1) - Live price play considering she'll be rolling late and should enjoy the long Churchill stretch to work out a winning effort, AND she's a Grade 1 winner.  "The Chief" - Hall of Fame trainer Allen Jerkens sends out this mare who was a disappointment at Gulfstream this winter.  Needs a form reversal, but with the right pace picture.....

5-There Is No Limit (15/1) - High level claiming winner who just cleared nw1x level - not today.

6-Aubby K (7/2) - She's only been out seven times and she's won three of them.  The four fillies/mares she was beaten by were:  On Fire Baby, Contested (twice) and Grace Hall - all multiple graded stakes winners!  She has the ability to run huge and she may have even more room for improvement.  Edgar Prado having a resurgent year.  Looks good here.

7-Burban (10/1) - Speed figures are double digits below what it will take to win; beaten nearly ten by Aubby K two races back.

8-Byrama (5/1) - She will take plenty of action because (a) she's lured Rosario to ride and (b) she just missed in the Grade 1 Madison at this level last out.  But to me she has NO SHOT.  Until her latest she was strictly a turf runner and her last two wins were in listed turf sprints.  The Madison is run over Keeneland's synthetic main which plays like turf, so no big surprise she ran well that day.  Makes her FIRST CAREER START on dirt today!

9-Holiday Soiree (12/1) - Will want to be part of the early pace, but the outside draw will discourage that.  Looks overmatched in here

8-Churchill            8f - Turf  Grade 2 Churchill Distaff Mile        

1-Drama Drama (30/1) - Two wins, one her maiden win and one at the nw1x level.  Looks very overmatched.

2-Channel Lady (12/1) - How often do you get 12/1 on a Todd Pletcher graded stakes winner?  She fits the pace scenario and has won at the distance.  Bejarano a strong finishing rider as well.  Upset chance.

3-Daisy Devine (3/1) - Speed to burn and she draws inside the other speed.  She was a monster in listed stakes over the winter and clearly best-of-the-rest in the Grade 1 Jenny Wiley last out after having a clear lead into the lane.  Not so sure she can run with the other pace player in here in spite of the inside draw.  Also, her goal all winter was the Jenny Wiley so I'm not so sure she's geared for a top effort here.

4-Frontside (30/1) - The other speed, and she appears quicker than Daisy, but she also is not in the same class as that gal.  I think she's a pace player to the far turn that has no chance to win, but has every chance to spoil the chances of any other filly on the front end.

5-Hungry Island (4/1) - A year ago she had a prep race at Keeneland at a mile, where she ran well, and then in her second start off the layoff she WON this very race.  This year she had a prep at Keeneland - and won - now moves to the Churchill Distaff second off the shelf!  Look out!  Shug McGaughey runners are having a great year and Javier Castellano is a top turf rider.  She will have a good pace to close into.  Looks dangerous to defend her title at a fair price.

6-Stephanie's Kitten (4/1) - She is a 2x winner here, including a Breeders' Cup win at this distance.  But I'm concerned that the last SEVEN Beyer figures earned by Hungry Island are ALL better than the lifetime best of Kitten.

7-Karlovy Vary (12/1) - Will be pressing all the pace players and get first jump into the lane, but don't think she measures up to the closers will battle for the top prize on the wire.

8-Marketing Mix (5/2) - She had a great season in 2012 and had the lead in deep stretch of the Grade 1 Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Turf, only to be nailed late by multiple Grade 1 winner Zagora.  She has not run since then, but trainer Tom Proctor is a 26% winner with runners off such layoffs.  Gomez & Proctor are deadly when handling a Glen Hills Farm runner, like Marketing Mix.  Her main rival, Hungry Island, have met three times, with that rival besting her in this spot last year - when Marketing Mix was my selecction :( - but on that day she was in traffic and had to wait through the lane.  That proved to be the first of two losses where she probably should have won, but rider Julien Leparoux did not give her every chance to win.  He was replaced by Gomez who produced a dominant Grade 1 win and near miss in the BC.  Her seven for eleven in the exacta mark on the turf with earnings of $1.5 million stamp her as the class of the race and I think she kicks off her 2013 season in a big way here today.

9-Class Included (30/1) - Winless in two tries over the grass, and beaten by rank 30-1 outsider Frontside two back.

10-Stopshoppingmaria (10/1) - Speedy miss had a resurgent winter as she moved through her conditions and won the Gulfstream Lady's Turf Sprint Stakes.  While it's true she nearly wired the Grade 2 Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf at this distance over this course, she will be compromised by other speed types and her outside draw.

 

9-Churchill            7f    Grade 2 Churchill Downs                    

1-Night Party (30/1) - Looks overmatched in this spot but should provide pace pressure.

2-Hiero (10/1)- Could be a very dangerous longshot in this spot.  First of all he's 2-for-2 over the Churchill main track and one of those was at this distance, the other was the Grade 3 Derby Trial.  Two back he scored at 7/5 when making his first start for Todd Pletcher.  Disappointed at odds-on in his last, but that makes today his third start off the shelf.  John Velazquez-Todd Pletcher at 10/1 with a graded stakes winner who's won over the track?  Uh oh.....

3-Laurie's Rocket (10/1) - Has won three of his last five, but is 0-for-3 at the distance and looks outclassed here.

4-Handsome Mike (12/1) - His last two wins, both graded stakes, were surprise attacks.  He unleashed tote board bombs at 19/1 in the Pennsylvania Derby last fall and then in his last he won the Grade 3 Commonwealth at 7/2.  Would be a surprise today in spite of his 2012 Derby connections.

5-Unbridled's Note (5/1) - Made his first start on the turf in the Grade 3 Eddie D, which led to him being the favorite in the BC Turf Sprint down the hill.  Second (to my longshot winner, whooo hooo!) and then was life-and-death to score in a listed stakes over the downhill course.  That came squeezed between two main track close finishes in graded sprints.  Looks to be a "I like to be close without winning" type in these big events.  Wouldn't be a big surprise, but doesn't appear to be "the one" today.

6-Pass the Dice (12/1) - Has won five of eight career starts, including a triple Beyer win over Hierro last out going a one-turn mile at Gulfstream in allowance company.  Steps up in class today with an upset chance.

7-Politicallycorrect (15/1) - On the "glass is half full" side he's 4/2-1-0 at today's distance and keeps Joel Rosario in the saddle.  On the "glass is half empty" side, he was beaten more than ten lengths by today's rival Unbridled's Note.

8-Trinniberg (8/5) - The defending Grade 1 Breeders' Cup Sprint Champion and Eclipse award winning sprinter from 2012 makes his first 2013 US start today.  And there-in lies the rub.  Horses making their first start after a trip to Dubai are often knocked out - strike one.  This guy disappointed me personally when failing to win the Grade 2 Carry Back over a four horse field at Calder and the $300K Gallant Bob when I was at Parx last fall.  Many do not believe his BC win was a true picture of his talent, but simply a once-in-a-lifetime run.  I would be on that page.  I think he disappoints here, but will win sprint stakes through the summer.

9-Delauney (2/1) - Today is "breakout day" for this sprinter!  He has won FIVE STRAIGHT and ALL of them have earned triple Beyers.  His last two speed figures of 110 and 111 give him a double Beyer advantage over the LIFETIME best figures of the rest of his rivals today.  The comments about his winter string of wins was he was running "....Breeders' Cup figures....." will be justified today, I believe.  He gets top riding Rosie Napravnik on board again and as if you need more ammunition to support him, how about this - he's a FIVE-time winner at today's unique seven furlong distance and he is unbeaten in three starts over the Churchill Downs track.  MUCH the best today and it's on to a course pointed to the 2013 Breeders' Cup!

 

10-Churchill           9f - Turf  Grade 1 Woodford Reserve Classic      

1-Middie (30/1) - Eligible to outrun his odds and grab a share with two wins locally and experience/wins at the distance.  But with only a single Grade 3 on his resume he'd be a surprise to be in the winner's circle today.

2-Slim Shadey (12/1) - Hall of Fame jockey Gary Stevens is enjoying his return to racing with many quality wins, and he piloted this guy to a Grade 2 win two back on the front end.  Look for Stevens to shoot to the front and try to back the pace down while lulling the field to sleep.  He has three Gr 2 wins on the front end, but those were all at 10 furlongs.  May have to run quicker here to lead them, and that probably puts him in the role of a target for the big two.

3-Optimizer (20/1) - Had a wonderful winter in New Orleans as he took down back-to-back Grade 3 events.  But his rivals in those spots would pale to today's top contenders.  Fringe player in spite of Joel Rosario on board.

4-Silver Max (8/1) - He was one of the most exciting three-year-olds of 2012 as his lightning quick speed propelled him to six straight wire-to-wire wins at distances from a mile to a mile and a quarter; and three of those were graded stakes.  Seems to be having issues since moving up to face older rivals and you have to be concerned when he didn't even make the lead last time out in the Grade 3 Appleton (where he was my personal pick to steal it!).

5-Swift Warrior (20/1) - Well, on the positive side he's won back-to-back Grade 3 races, one at today's nine furlong distance and he gets Javier Castellano on board.  AND he should be positioned right off the speed to be one of the first to challenge once heads are turned for home.  On the downside he just does not appear fast enough or classy enough to deal with the outside two monsters of the race.

6-Jeranimo (8/1) - Nothing but Grade 1's and Grade 2's on his pp's and he's won four of those showing on his resume.  One includes a defeat of eventual BC Turf champion Little Mike, but he'd have to produce a lifetime best to challenge for the top spot here today.

7-Bim Bam (50/1)- I think his connections STILL hold on to that 2nd at 30-1 in the Grade 1 Manhattan back in June 2011 and think they have a chanced.  Winless for three years.....would be the shocker of the weekend.

8-Wise Dan (6/5) - The defending 2012 Horse of the Year steps outside his comfort zone - a mile on the turf - in making his second start of the season.  He was impressive in winning his debut, not only when not fully cranked for the race and defeating the previous year's winner (who was in peak form), but without having to produce his best.  His last workout since that 2013 debut was a sizzling bullet work going five furlongs in :59.3 over Keeneland's synthetic surface.  The question today is can he translate that championship form to this nine furlong distance?  I think the evidence says a big YES to that......first, he won the Fayette and the Clark at this distance, the latter a Grade 1 that earned him a 107 speed figure, which he has produced and surpassed on the turf.  Second, he should be ideally spotted in a tracking position about two lengths off the targeted front runners and have first jump on his chief rival in the next post position outside.  Third, he has the advantage of recency over that rival.  And finally, like Wise Dan, that rival is probably better going a distance different from today's race.  Would love to see him run away with this victory and come back in the Clark in six weeks when we will be at the Downs!  BIG TIME!

9-Point of Entry (7/5) - I hope he takes a lot of money because I don't think he can run with Wise Dan, at least not today, and not at this distance.  There is reason to believe he could win today, and honestly if Wise Dan were not in the race he would be a deserving favorite, but not my top choice.  While it is true that he won three consecutive Grade 1 races in New York last summer I would argue - as I did going into the Breeders' Cup - that he is highly overrated.  His rivals in those races are all horses who either have not seen the winner's circle in years and/or have never won graded stakes.  The fact that he could not run down Little Mike - who was racing beyond his comfort zone - in the Breeders' Cup Turf just confirmed my opinion of his overrated ability.  Those who like him will point out that he defeated Animal Kingdom in the Grade 1 GP Handicap at this distance last out and all Animal Kingdom did was use that to race as a stepping stone to win the $6 Million Dubai World Cup.  I would point out that nearly everyone agrees that Joel Rosario's ride that day was the worst ride he's given a stakes horse in 2013, and he made up for it in Dubai, big time.  Still, you could point out that the speed figure of 107 and the winning margin of 1 1/4 is a near mirror image of Wise Dan's 107 winning figure when he beat Animal Kingdom by 1 1/2 lengths in the BC Mile.  To which I would say it only shows they are nearly equal rivals - and that does NOT give Point of Entry an edge.  He surrenders recency, conditioning AND will have to chase down the Horse of the Year who appears primed for a huge effort today.

 

1 Black Onyx (50/1)

He's won back-to-back races, the last the Grade 3 Spiral over a synthetic track.  Outclassed here and the one hole only makes matters worse for any upset chance he might be hoping for.

2 Oxbow (30/1)

He looked like an early Derby favorite when he won the Grade 3 Lecomte at the Fair Grounds.  But he's disappointed in every start since then.

3 Revolutionary (10/1)

One of three Pletcher horses who look very dangerous in here.  The fact he's a WinStar-owned colt, ridden by Calvin Borel, drawn near the rail, and trained by Todd Pletcher all conjure up memories of Derby winner Super Saver.  He's shown himself to be game and able to work out trips in spite of trouble, which would be very helpful in a big 20-horse field like the Derby.  If anyone can work out the trip, it would be Borel.

4 Golden Soul (50/1)

Has but a single maiden win - hardly the prep you want to win the Kentucky Derby.

5 Normandy Invasion (12/1)

Interesting that Javier Castellano chose to stick with this one, who LOST to Verrazano last out instead of going with Pletcher's Revolutionary.  He was the "buzz" horse in the weeks following that fast closing finish in the Grade 1 Wood, but seems to have "fallen from favor" since then.  Would not be surprised to see him win, but I think he's a cut below the top ones in here.

6 My Lute (15/1)

I'd be happy for the connections if he won because Rosie Napravnik is riding.  But the truth of the matter he has two wins - a maiden win and a $50K Optional Claiming win.  The fact he was a neck short of Revolutionary in the Grade 2 Louisiana Derby last out says more about Revolutionary being a cut below than My Lute being up with the best of his generation.

7 Giant Finish (50/1)

His lone win was a state-bred sprint at Aqueduct.  Beaten soundly by rank outsider Black Onyx.....no.

8 Goldencents (5/1)

This colt is a legitimate win contender and proved he can sit just off the leaders which should be his position today.  He hails from the same trainer that won last year's Derby in Doug O'Neil.  I think he sits right off the longshot leader or leaders, and makes his move heading into the far turn.  Hopes will spring as he surges to the lead - but can he hold off the best three-year-olds of the east coast?

9 Overanalyze (15/1)

Looking for an upset horse who after the race everyone would shake their head and say, "I can't believe I missed him!" - well this is the guy.  He was highly rated after winning the Grade 2 Remsen at 9 furlongs to close out his juvenile season.  But in his three-year-old debut he was a flat fourth to Vyjack.  Still, you could say he needed that race.  Many did not and they paid the price when he stretched out from that mile race in the Gotham to the 9 furlong distance of the Grade 1 Arkansas Derby....and won at $9.40 (as my pick!).  So here you have the only multiple nine furlong winner in the field, who won the Grade 1 Arkansas Derby, and is trained by Todd Pletcher for Michael Repole....and he's 15/1?  Uh oh.

10 Palace Malice (20/1)

I really believe this colt will be a multiple graded stakes winner by the end of the year - just not today.  I had him in the Bluegrass and when he moved to a clear lead inside the 16th pole I thought he would be a big threat today.  But then he was nailed on the wire by a deep closer (who's in the field today), and I think he's just not ready yet for that big effort he WILL have ..... later in the year.

11 Lines of Battle (30/1)

The UAE Derby winner not only has to deal with a trip halfway around the world, but he was life-and-death to hold on that night.  I think he's simply not as good as these guys, especially on the main track.

12 Itsmyluckyday (15/1)

It would be a great day for Calder if he wins, as he's locally based.  His upset of the Gulfstream Park Derby came at the expense of MUCH lesser foes that he sees today.  His big claim to fame came in his next start when he defeated the unbeaten Juvenile champion Shanghai Bobby in the Grade 3 Holy Bull.  But besides that one, who needed the race and was exiting the Breeders' Cup off a long layoff, there was very little in the field that day as well.  In the Florida Derby he was no match for Orb and his connections quickly said that the race was NOT their goal because the Kentucky Derby was.  So, you're telling me that a Grade 1 $1 million race that is five weeks away from the Kentucky Derby is not a major goal?  Very unusual thinking.  He think he's a very good Calder horse - and that's it.  In fact if anything, his ability to give Orb a fight may be seen after the race as showing Orb is not quite as good as everyone thinks.

13 Falling Sky (50/1)

His connections have made no secret that they ARE going to the front.  I think they are the sacrificial lamb for the pressers, but because he won't have to run insane fractions to get to the lead he will probably take them to the far turn giving his connections a lot of early excitement before he fades back through the field.

14 Verrazano (4/1)

He's undefeated and answered every question posed to him on the race track.  He's trained by Todd Pletcher, ridden by Johnny Velazquez and has been the Derby favorite since before he even tried two turns and stakes company.  Velazquez has been quoted that the only colt he's been that has shown anything close to his kind of talent was the superstar Uncle Mo.  That is a high compliment.  He's shown the ability to overcome trouble and he has the perfect tracking style.  I also am very encouraged by what several handicappers/analysts had to say about the Wood Memorial.  It was his smallest winning margin, but it came after tracking slow fractions and he STILL won without having to produce his very best - AND was never threatened through the lane.  I think he gets a much sharper pace today, allowing him to track in under much more favorable conditions, and he blows by them all through the lane holding off the closers.  If he does indeed win he will be the first colt to win the Derby without racing as a two-year-old since Apollo did it in 1882!

15 Charming Kitten (20/1)

He will win graded stakes this year - on the turf.  He's the one Pletcher runner who would be a BIG surprise.

16 Orb (7/2)

Without question, he's the one to beat.  He continues to improve with each race and each training effort.  He will be mid-pack or perhaps a little farther back and should be rolling like a freight train late.  It's a little disconcerting that he is excitable, which with the huge crowd, is a concern.  And reports are he was spooked in the paddock on Thursday.  He is my sentimental pick as I would love to see Shug McGaughey get a Derby and the Janey family have been long-time racing supporters, so to get their first Derby would be a memorable sight as well.  Still, John Velazquez had his pick of Orb or Verrazano and chose the latter.  Hmmmm.

17 Will Take Charge (20/1)

After winning the Grade 2 Rebel in mid-March he's trained up to the race.  His worst effort came HERE when beaten over twenty-five lengths in the Grade 2 Kentucky Jockey Club.

18 Frac Daddy (50/1)

He won the aforementioned Grade 2 Kentucky Jockey Club and I think you can draw lines through all his winter races as nothing went right for him.  You know he loves the track and his trainer thinks he has a chance.  Not completely out of the question.

19 Java's War (15/1)

He's been known to wait in the gate and then make a HUGE late run, as he did when second to Verrazano in the Tampa Bay Derby and last out when just getting up in time to win the Blue Grass.  Was fifth behind Frac Daddy in that Jockey Club race.  Maybe picks up a minor check by finishing strongly.

20 Vyjack (15/1)

Much like Normandy Invasion he was high on everyone's list when unbeaten and heading into the Wood.  But since then he had a minor physical issue, his trainer had to deal with suspensions and getting his license to be here, and he was allowed to train here only if the barn was under 24 hour video surveillance.  Not today.

21 Fear the Kitten

On the AE list with little chance to get in and he'd be a huge surprise if he ran.

 

Kentucky Oaks Day Analysis

 

6-Churchill         8.5f  Grade 2 La Trionne                     

1-Imposing Grace (10/1) - On the upside, she has won here at Churchill Downs in her lone appearance here, albeit in a one-turn mile allowance event, and you can make something of a case that she was best-of-the-rest second behind today's favorite Believe You Can in both of her last two starts in listed stakes at the Fair Grounds.  But, the fact that she never was a threat to that one, you have to figure she's up against it in here.

2-Authenticity (6/1) - She is unbeaten at today's 8 1/2 furlong distance, including a blowout win by 17 widening lengths in allowance company at Gulfstream two back.  She was best-of-the-rest behind her stable-mate Ciao Bella in her last, the Grade 3 Rampart on Florida Derby Day.  And the fact she's out of Todd Pletcher's barn must count for something.  She's a contender, and will be a fair price.

3-More Chocolate (5/1) - Looms the main threat to the favorite, especially with the white-hot riding Joel Rosario in the saddle.  'Chocolate spent the first seven races of her career on the turf and built a 7/2-1-1 record.  But two back trainer John Sadler moved her to the main track and tried graded company in the Grade 2 La Canada Stakes at Santa Anita.  She responded with a solid win, earning a speed figure that would make her a threat today.  She was second last out in the Grade 1 Santa Margarita to one of the best older mares in the country, Joyful Victory (who was loose on the lead that day).  It's also encouraging that the only time she ran this distance, she won....and the jockey that day?  Joel Rosario!

4-Believe You Can (7/5) - Has to be one of the favorites if not THE favorite based on her last appearance here - it was exactly one year ago today when she ran in the Grade 1 Kentucky Oaks and WON!  That day she had Rosie Napravnik in the saddle, making her the first female jockey to ever win this race, and they are reunited today.  Her winter was spent at the Fair Grounds beating up on lesser, listed-stakes quality gals.  Today she steps into the deep end of the water....but she's proven she can handle that type as she is a multiple graded stakes winner.  She'll need her best today, but I believe Hall of Fame trainer Larry Jones did everything he did this winter with this race circled in big red letters as his main goal.

6-On Fire Baby (8/5) - This time last year she was one of the favorites for the Kentucky Oaks as she entered the 138th Oaks with multiple graded wins, including the Grade 2 Golden Rod here as a two-year-old.  She was 4/1 that first Friday in May, only to finish a well-beaten fifth behind 13-1 Believe You Can, who she faces again today.  She pulled the stunning upset in her last, the Grade 1 Apple Blossom under a clever ride at 12/1.  Appears to me that the Apple Blossom was her big target for the spring and she's here because she won - not because she was aiming for today's prize.

7-Class Included (20/1) - You have to give her props for winning 10 of 20 starts; I don't care who you are running against, that kind of consistency is admirable.  However all those races were at much smaller race tracks in the Pacific Northwest and the only time she's faced quality mares she was no where to be found.  Not today.

8-Draw It (30/1) - Has only two lifetime wins, one in her last race when she finally cleared her non-winners-of-one allowance condition.  Her big claim to fame is a second in the Grade 1 Gazelle behind Breeders' Cup Champion Awesome Feather - but that was in 2011 and she's never earned a speed figure close to that since that fall afternoon two plus years ago.

7-Churchill         8.5f - Turf            Englewood Stakes           

1-Street of Gold (30/1) - In her last four races she has a win - in a one mile Turfway allowance race over the main synthetic track - and three losses by a combined 30+ lengths.  Winless over the grass, this would be a big surprise.

2-Broken Spell (15/1) - She started her career as a two-year-old on the turf, scoring in her second start and then just missing in the PG Johnson Stakes at Saratoga.  Her connections tried the main-track Grade 1 Alcibiades over Keeneland's synthetic surface and she was a late running second.  Encouraged she might be an Oaks kind of filly they sent her to the Breeders' Cup.  In the eight dirt races since that Keeneland 2nd she has run third twice and been well up the track in every other start.  Perhaps today she reverses her form as she gets back on her favorite surface.  Longshot possibility.

3-Kitten's Dumplings (4/1) - Has shown some solid turf form, including a stakes win, and in her best showing a good second to the highly talented Tapicat in the Grade 3 Florida Oaks at Tampa this winter.  She has the hottest connections in the world on her side.  Owners Ken & Sarah Ramsey set a Keeneland record for most wins in a meet in the just concluded spring meeting; trainer Michael Maker set an all-time trainer win record at the same meet; and jockey Joel Rosario set an all-time riding win total at the same meeting.  Before you dismiss her because "it's the horse that runs the race" consider this....in the two closing features at Keeneland Rosario/Maker won both of them at odds of 18/1 and 9/1.  AND on Opening Night here last Saturday, Rosario won four races.  Uh oh.

4-Judy In Disguise (10/1) - She's won 3 of 5 turf starts and her only North American turf start - that's the good news.  The bad news is she's never been two turns and her only turf stakes try, in Europe, was her worst effort.  Wouldn't be the biggest shock if she stole it on the front end, but it would be a surprise.

5-Birdlover (4/1) - Her best efforts have been on the front end, most notably when she just failed to last in a Grade 3 in her latest.  That was just three weeks ago and she looks to have company on the lead today.  She has shown rating ability, so maybe she sits the trip.  She's got the Santa Anita Derby winner's connections with trainer Doug O'Neil and jockey Kevin Krigger.

6-Private Ensign (8/1) - On the one hand she's never been on the turf, but she has the Tomlinsons to indicate she might like it.  She's never won a stakes race (only five career starts), but she was third behind Dreaming of Julia in the Grade 2 Davona Dale.  Trainer Dale Romans said last week he thought he had a lot of horses ready to run big at the meet.  Would have liked to have seen her on the turf previously.

7-Emotional Kitten (15/1) - She does have two turf wins, but was soundly defeated in her lone stakes start by today's rival, Kitten's Dumplings.  Would be a surprise.

8-Praia (20/1) - Broke her maiden in her last start, though you could be encouraged it was also her first turf start.  Not for me.

9-Tokyo Time (3/1) - Demonstrated her raw talent when a close second to the ultra-talented Tapicat last December in her second start.  That filly came back to dominate an allowance field and then a graded stakes in her next two.  Off that loss, Tokyo Time destroyed her maiden rivals over the Gulfstream lawn, wiring a nine furlong event.  She improved her speed figure and demonstrated an ability to rate when thrown into the Grade 3 Herecomesthebride in her first start against winners.  However, after rallying from 6th to challenge for the win she was out-bobbed on the wire by a good one in Kitten's Point.  She's fresh off a break for Shug McGaughey with top pilot Javier Castellano.

10-Wave Theory (9/2) - Another lightly raced filly who is as good as the top two (Kitten's Dumplings & Tokyo Time) having finished a neck back of 'Kitten in the Grade 3 Florida Oaks.  Have to wonder however if she can replicate that effort as that was a peak effort and she will need a trouble-free trip and a solid pace to make her late kick effective.

11-Adrianai (15/1) - She's exchanged decisions with Emotional Kitten and finished as close to Tapicat as the other two logical favorites in here.  She has the added disadvantage of the far outside draw.

 

8-Churchill         7f          Grade 3 Eight Belles             

1-Chortle (20/1) - Is unbeaten in her three-year-old season having rattled off wire-to-wire wins in her maiden sprint at Hawthorne, followed by a starter allowance win at the same venue; and then her career best wire-to-wire win in entry level allowance company at Keeneland last out.  Big step up in class today....you know she'll gun from the rail and at least be an early pace pressence.

2-Fusaiichiswonderful (9/2) - She was a Puerto Rican superstar at two when she went five-for-five, including Group stakes.  The competition has to be questioned of those fields however.  For her sophomore season she was switched into the powerful Todd Pletcher barn (because you know how he's starving for quality runners....not).  He immediately entered her into the Grade 2 Forward Gal against arguably the best 3-yo sprinter in the country Kauai Katie.  She was a distant fourth that day but came right back in her next start to score in an overnight Gulfstream stakes.  Just the connections make you consider her as a win alternative:  Pletcher - Castellano are among the best in the business.

3-Blueeyesintherain (8/1) - If she is allowed to leave the post at 8/1 that is simply a gift from the racing gods.  Consider these facts.....she won her debut HERE drawing off by nearly four widening lengths going 4 1/2 furlongs despite starting from post six.  In her second start she again won impressively in the Grade 3 Debutante, HERE.  Must have faced some problems as she was gone from June 2012 until three weeks ago when she showed up at Oaklawn Park in the Instant Racing Stakes....and she won impressively.  Back to her home track she looks to stretch out an extra furlong today.

4-Sittin At The Bar (20/1) - She's an interesting proposition after having rattled off back-to-back state-bred sprint stakes as a juvenile at the Fair Grounds last fall.  In her latest she won the two-turn Crescent City Stakes - another state-bred stakes - at the Fair Grounds on Louisiana Derby Day.  The cut back to seven panels is a classic move.

5-Renee's Titan (8/1) - Hails from the connections who brought us last year's Derby winner and holds the honor of having taken down the reigning 2-year-old filly champion, Beholder (one of the favorites in the Oaks later today) when sprinting 6 1/2 furlongs.  But its a bit disconcerting that in the three races surrounding that upset she was beaten 10 1/2, 13 3/4, and 11 lengths.  Which filly shows up today.  At least you'll get a fair price.

6-Neith (50/1) - D. Wayne Lucas sends this filly out, and for what reason, I couldn't really explain.  Perhaps it's because three-year-olds can have a sudden reversal of form without any indication?  Or maybe it's just the idea of turning back from a two-turn-turf attempt to a 7 furlong dirt sprint can sometimes reverse form?  Would never expect her to win.

7-Spring Venture (15/1) - Could be a surprise package in here.  Simply the fact that she IS here indicates her connections have not given up on her.  She started her juvenile season by winning three straight at her home base in Woodbine - two on turf and one on the poly surface - the last two being graded stakes.  She was thought enough of by her connections to be sent to the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies and handicappers thought enough of her to send her off at odds of 7/2.  But she was badly beaten - 13th by better than seven lengths.  She showed little in her sophomore debut in the aforementioned Forward Gal, but then won the state-bred OBS Sprint - interesting it was over a poly surface.  But she was once again buried in the Grade 1 Ashland at Keeneland in her last when trying two turns again.  If able to recapture her early two-year-old form, maybe.  Her work over the track does not indicate to me that she will run well today however.

8-Gold Medal Dancer (15/1) - Hard to judge her ability.  She's only been out twice, and won both.  The first was an Arlington sprint where she prompted the pace and dueled to the wire, holding on in a gut-wrenching photo.  Off for seven months she reappeared at Oaklawn on a sloppy track and broke dead last in a field of eleven.  Still 7th by eight lengths with only two furlongs to go she exploded by the field and won drawing off while earning a solid 83 speed figure.  Hmmm.

9-So Many Ways (6/1) - Now here is an interesting prospect.  She was unbeaten as a juvenile winning both the Grade 3 Schylerville and Grade 1 Spinaway - the two major features for juvenile fillies at Saratoga - last summer.  She went to the shelf in anticipation of a big sophomore campaign.  In fact, I was watching HRTV the day she made her return to the races in a listed stakes at Gulfstream.  They interviewed her owner who was thrilled to get her back on the track and pointing for the major stakes of the spring.  However she was third that day at odds on, beaten by today's rival, Fusaichiswonderful.  Still, they pressed on and sent her to the Fair Ground Oaks.  You have to figure she was short that day and after setting the pace for the first 3/4 of a mile she stopped badly.  It's a classic turnback, and she's gets class relief.  You have to count her Grade 1 win AT THIS DISTANCE as part of your handicapping.  Her last two works, here, were both excellent works.  Could be an upset special!

10-Irish Lute (30/1) - She has a single win, her maiden win....which was here.  And she has never seen graded company.  The outside post isn't any bargain either.  Nope.

11-Dancinginthecircle (8/1) - Jockey Rosie Napravnik has had a lot of success for trainer Larry Jones and she was a fast closing second at today's distance to a repeat winner at this distance over this track last October in spite of a troubled break.  She would be no surprise considering the connections. 

12-Touch Magic (8/1) - Yet another solid contender in this deep and contentious field.  She has never been out of the exacta in five career starts.  The race to focus on is two back when she had Rose to Gold in deep stretch, only to be run down by that one in the Grade 3 Delta Princess.  She bounced out of that to take the Silverbulletday Stakes at the Fair Grounds, one of the early preps for the Grade 2 Fair Grounds Oaks, but she has not started since that win.  She will be running late.

12-Calistoga (7/2)- This unbeaten filly is the program favorite at a tepid 7/2.  She has great connections - Hall of Fame trainer Bill Mott (all-time winningest trainer at Churchill) and the white-hot Joel Rosario.  Both her wins at Gulfstream earned huge figures and a repeat especially of her maiden win, when she received a 97 speed figure, would make her tough in here.

9-Churchill         8.5f        Grade 2 Alysheba                 

1-Patrioticandproud (20/1) - He has won on turf and on synthetic and he has Joel Rosario on board, who won with him last out in a Keeneland allowance.  But, he's never won on "real dirt" and he's never raced here.  Have to take a dim view of the lone dirt race showing - an allowance at Gulfstream where he was beaten 16 1/2 lengths - yikes!

2-Laughtrack (20/1) - Has won three of his last four, but like his uncoupled entry-mate, the rail runner, he's never been on real dirt.  Has a sharp bullet work over the Churchill surface.  Expect him to be part of the early pace picture.

3-Right to Vote (20/1) - Has had flashes of talent, without winning, in graded efforts (note the third to champion Union Rags and second to Mark Valeski).  Hard to believe that today's his day to suddenly make a huge move forward.

4-Hymn Book (3/1) - As a seven-year-old he's only made 21 starts, but he's won EIGHT of them, and if you look carefully he's only had one bad effort on the main track going back to 2011 in nearly all graded stakes.  The two times he dropped into listed stakes he won, as he should.  Seems to like to be all around it without winning.  Garrett Gomez a strong big money rider - don't dismiss him to lightly.

5-Richard's Kid (5/1) - When he ran for Bob Baffert he was very consistent in big graded events with big Beyers.  But since being moved into Doug O'Neil's barn he just hasn't been the same horse.  If he suddenly wakes up and reverts to his old form he'd be a threat.  No apparent reason to think that will happen today however.

6-Take Charge Indy (4/1) - He looked to be on his way to victory in the Grade 3 Skip Away on Florida Derby day, only to be run down late by emerging star Cigar Street.  His best chance is on the front end, but there are at least two who will battle for the early lead to his inside today.  Pace presence at best.

7-Macho Macho (5/1) - Going back almost exactly a year to his win HERE on Derby Day he's had fine form, even winning the Grade 2 West Virginia Derby.  He's a fit in with these, but like so many others in here he'll have to show up with his "A" game today and there's no overwhelming evidence he will....nor that he won't!

8-Bourbon Courage (4/1) - After winning his first two starts he has been in eight consecutive graded stakes.  The first two - both around one turn - are the ONLY races in that streak where he failed to hit the board.  I liked him enough to make him my top selection in the Grade 1 Donn Handicap where he was a good second.  He followed that with a solid third in the Grade 2 New Orleans which was dominated by the one-two runners all the way around the track.  Given the anticipated pace scenario today I think he has a good shot to get his first win of the 2013 season.

9-Cyber Secret (7/2) - On speed figures and recent form he is the one to beat.  He has an up-close, stalking style which will probably require him to use some early energy to gain position into the first turn.  If able to get position without losing too much ground he could be a solid win candidate.  He's certainly the pick for those who back the "now" horse.

10-Churchill        8.5f - Turf            Grade 2 American Turf     

1-Anyriderill Do (12/1) - In his first try around two turns he stole his latest with pedestrian fractions.  He'll be sent from the rail, but will have to deal with some pressure and quicker splits today.  Would be surprised if he held off the quality finishers in here today.

2-Bashaar (8/1) - He's won his last two impressively, and both were KEY races with the runner-up from both coming right back to score.  The problem is that those were on the main track and he's never seen the turf.  Tough spot to try grass for the first time.  BUT.....if the weather forces this to the main track he becomes a big factor.  And an off track would be even more to his liking as evidenced by his 13+ length score over the sloppy Oaklawn main last out.

3-Channel Isle (15/1) - This colt has two wins - his maiden score and a win over 2-lifetime allowance foes....no.

4-Noble Tune (3/1)  TODAY'S BEST BET - This guy is TALENTED!  He debuted for Chad Brown going two turns over the Saratoga turf and rallied to win going away over a next-out runner-up.  Right back in the Grade 3 Pilgrim where he ran over a boggy course - which bodes well if there is rain and the race stays on the grass - and he again won very impressively.  Despite splits that would be slow in a bottom-level claiming event he blew by from off the pace to win handily.  In his third career start he was in the Grade 1 Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf and was at the back of the pack heading into the far turn.  He rallied wide and was second best as the tepid 7/2 favorite.  In his sophomore debut he made what was the most remarkable stretch run I've ever seen in allowance company.  At the top of the stretch at Tampa, off a four month layoff he was dead last.  But he found another gear and was simply a blur through the lane, JUST getting up in time to win.  With one under his belt and a string of solid works under his belt he looks MUCH the best in here.  Chad Brown wins with 32% of his layoff runners like this, and Javier Castellano is a 30% winning rider for Brown.  He will be flying through the lane and if anything, the extra 1/2 furlong will only enhance his chances.  BIG TIME today.

5-War Dancer (6/1) - He broke his maiden pressing a moderate pace going nine furlongs at Gulfstream.  But in his last he was "unprepared" at the start and trailed early.  He was rank for the rider but in spite of the trouble he was flying at the finish to clear his entry-level allowance with a big finish.  Needs to step up with these.

6-Positively (15/1) - Made his turf debut in his last, and was also flying through the lane in the same event that saw War Dancer win.  He was second that day beaten only a half length.  He should improve second-time turf, but it's a long way from nw1x allowance to Grade 2 company.

7-I'll Call (15/1) - He won his debut maiden race in his last and only start.  Very unusual that top trainer Graham Motion would send him straight into stakes company.  Perhaps he won't as he's cross-entered for a race on the Thursday card.

8-Tenforthemoney (30/1) - Won a maiden claimer two back and was a close third, beaten only 1/2 length in the War Dancer race last out.  Like the previous two out of that spot it's a big jump up today.

9-Admiral Kitten (4/1) - He has two wins and a photo-finish second in three of his four starts.  The other finish is a toss after a stumbling start.  His speed figure in that last photo-finish second is the top last-race figure of the field.  So, on numbers he has a good shot.  But he makes his stakes debut today.  You have to be happy that trainer Michael Maker and Ken & Sarah Ramsey are his human connections.  But it is very curious that Joel Rosario is NOT on board, and instead rides for one of his former clients, breaking from the far outside.

10-Fire Guard (8/1) - He's earned big numbers in his two wins, but those were in a maiden and an entry-level allowance spot.  His two turf stakes starts he was a non-factor.  Add in the outside post and I would be surprised if he shows up first on the wire.

11-Joelito (12/1) - Very curious that Joel Rosario accepts the mount for top California trainer John Sadler instead of the 'Kitten for Maker-Ramsey connections.  Is there something significant about the name?  One thing I often use as a key in turf races with lightly raced horses like these is when they jump up significantly when they try turf for the first time.  This guy took a huge step forward in his last when he went two turns and turf for the first time last out.  Very interesting.

12-Redwood Kitten (8/1) - Another Ramsey-owned 'Kitten colt.  This one does his best running on the front end.  The colts inside of him who've shown speed are not confirmed front-runners like this one.  Look for jockey Elvis Trujillo to sprint out of the gate, quickly assume command and try to back the pace down.  Could last a long time and boost the exotic wagers at a more than fair price.

13-Prado Cat (30/1) - Gets Hall of Fame rider Gary Stevens but he looks completely overmatched in here.

 

1 Silsita (20/1) 

Not to diminish the local Calder course, and it's true that their 2-year-old program is one of the finest in the nation, but... I would be very surprised if this Calder graduate was posing with the lilies in the winner's circle today.  After breaking her maiden at first asking - over the turf, in a photo finish - she changed hands and made her next appearance in an allowance dirt route at Gulfstream.  She showed brief speed and then wilted.  She came back over the Gulfstream turf, again in allowance company and set the pace before weakening to be third.  Off a break she returned in the one mile, Grade 3 Bourbonette at Turfway Park over their synthetic main track....at she won at odds of 9/1 in a photo finish.  She appears to be a pace presence, especially from the rail.  I doubt very much she will can win, but she will compromise the other front runners and help set-up the finishers.

2 Midnight Lucky (9/2)

If you are looking for a "surprise" filly, this would be the one.  Nearly everyone who has been watching the fillies and colts this week going through their morning workouts were just buzzing about this gal's work on Monday morning.  She was working in company with a colt (who was on the fringes of the Derby field) and she just blew his doors off in a sensational work.  She worked five-eighths of a mile in :59 and change.....going a 1 minute 5 furlong work is excellent.  But what was most impressive is HOW she did it.  The exercise rider never moved a muscle while she tracked her male counterpart and ran right by him effortlessly.  One clocker interviewed on HRTV said on camera that he would find it very difficult to believe that any filly had a chance to beat this gal come Friday afternoon!  The main concern is that she has only been out twice.  She was scintillating in her debut as she drew off by seven widening lengths while sprinting.  And she was no secret on the backstretch as she was 4/5 in that first start.  Her next start was in the Sunland Park Oaks and she sat just off the leaders for the first half mile then drew off with ease, winning by eight widening lengths to score.  But here's the rub.... those are the only two starts of her career.  While she has Hall of Fame connections, and a Sunland Park Oaks winner did win the Kentucky Oaks two years ago - for this HOF trainer, Bob Baffert - I think in THIS field, THIS year, you would have to be a superstar to overcome the inexperience of a short career to beat these battle-tested top fillies.  Still, she wouldn't surprise me if she won.

3 Beholder (7/2)

She is the 2012 Juvenile Filly Champion; she won the Grade 1 Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies; and in her last three two-turn starts she has not one, not two, but THREE GRADE 1 events.  It's hard to NOT put her near the top of win contenders, even in this stellar field.  I think she has a very good chance to win the lilies today, but she is not my top selection.  Why?  First of all, she is a front runner, and she has never traveled nine furlongs.  So, she would be asked to do something she's never done before.  And that would not be out of the question in most years, but this year not only are their quality fillies tracking her, but she will not be alone on the lead.  So now we are asking her to not only go farter than she's ever gone, and on the front end, but while battling company the entire way.  Second, in all three of her two-turn, Grade 1 victories, she was loose on the lead and had everything her own way.  No one challenged her from the moment the gates opened until she cruised across the wire.  I do believe she can sit off the other speeds and stalk the leaders, but to me this simply means we are asking her to try a new running style, in the biggest race of her life, against other superstar fillies AND going a distance she's never gone.  She looms to be one of the favorites and is very dangerous, but if she can beat me, then I'll let her do so.

4 Unlimited Budget (7/2)

I think this is the filly to beat.  She is a perfect 4-for-4 in her career, so she has been battle-tested, but still is lightly raced enough to still have room for improvement.  She is trained by the best trainer in the world, Todd Pletcher, and she is owned by one of the most competitive owners in the US in Michael Repole.  However, to me the biggest angles in her favor are these......first, her running style.  While true that she won the Grade 2 Demoiselle at Aqueduct by going wire to wire, that came while setting soft fractions because apparently no one else wanted the lead AND she was an inexperienced two-year-old at the time.  In both of her BIG wins as a three-year-old she has come from mid-pack and just inhaled the field.  First in the Grade 3 Rachel Alexandra at the Fair Grounds (in spite of a wide trip) and then in her next start, the Grade 2 Fair Ground Oaks where she was even wider....and she beat a quality filly that day who's running in here.  The second factor that is a plus is that with each start she has improved.  It is a plus that her two prep scores came at the Fair Grounds where there is a long stretch run, much like Churchill Downs.  It looks to me like she will sit a very comfortable trip about four or five lengths off a fast pace, then she will move through the turn and come wide into the stretch and run by the field to win.  It's certainly no slam dunk, but it all looks to be set up for her today.

5 Seaneen Girl (20/1)

On the upside she was third to Unlimited Budget in the Fair Ground Oaks and she does have the top jockey in the country today in Rosie Napravnik (who won this very race last year!).  And if you are looking for a longshot, you could do a lot worse on one factor alone.....she has already won here!  After losing TWICE for a claiming tag last fall she was ambitiously in the Grade 2 Golden Rod here in November.  Sent off at 30-1 odds, she stalked the pace and blew by in the stretch.  Her speed figures are close enough to warrant consideration and you have to like the fact that she has only made one start as a sophomore and that was finishing just four lengths behind Unlimited Budget in spite of giving up seasoning and coming off a four month layoff.  Hmmmm, very interesting at a BIG price.

6 Princess of Sylmar (20/1)

This gal came flying from 10th and last in a 5 1/2 furlong sprint debut to lose by only two lengths in her debut.  She then was sent two turns and won her maiden in style by NINETEEN widening lengths; next to allowance company going two turns - another blowout win; next in a $100K New York stakes race, and another blowout win;  another $100K NY race and another blowout win!  She was off two months then was sent into the Grade 2 Gazelle and was second best behind Close Hatches - who's in today's field.  You could easily see her improving in her second start off the bench, and she does have Todd Pletcher as a trainer.  But I think she's probably best at the Grade 3 level, against familiar New York fillies.

7 Pure Fun (30/1)

Much like Seaneen Girl you have to at least give her a cursory glace because in her one and only appearance under the twin spires she won by nine widening lengths in a career-best performance.  Off that November blow-out win in allowance company she was sent out west to run in the Grade 1 Hollywood Starlet....and she won!  She closed from out of the clouds, so you could make a case for her picking up the pieces her with the anticipated hot pace, and with her obvious affinity for the sometimes quirky Churchill dirt.  And in a "normal" Oaks field I'd give her a better than outside chance.  But this year she is facing five legitimate superstars.  Would be surprised if she scored.

8 Dreaming of Julia (3/1)

Anyone's opinion on the 2013 Kentucky Oaks has to start with what your opinion is of Dreaming of Julia.  After quickly becoming the early divisional leader last summer she was life and death to win the Grade 1 Frizette at odds of 1-9.  She shipped to California and was a credible third in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies behind Beholder.  She made her three-year-old debut in the Grade 2 Davona Dale at Gulfstream and chased a loose-on-the-lead sprinter around the track to be second.  Everyone expected improvement on Florida Derby Day, but she absolutely freaked that day.  Not only did she win the Grade 2 Gulfstream Park Oaks, but she won by nearly the length of the stretch - 21 3/4 lengths!  It was the most amazing performance of the day.  There are two major sources of speed figures in thoroughbred racing....Beyer speed figures which are published in the Daily Racing Form and Ragozin Figures which are for the "serious" players.  Julia's Ragozin figure was the fastest figure OF ALL TIME....for any horse!  Filly, colt, three-year-old, or older champion...no horse has EVER run that fast.  If she were to run that fast again, she would win the Kentucky DERBY by daylight.  So there's the dilemma....is she truly that good?  If she is, can she repeat that effort?  Does she even need to repeat that same effort if she's that good?  Or did she truly "freak" that day and today she will run a race which is more like what she typically runs?  For me, I was never sold on her being that good.  I was stunned by her win in the GP Oaks - not that she won, but how she won.  To me my opinion of the race was tempered by Pletcher's comments after the race that he didn't expect her to run that well.  I think she's well bet today, but I think she is vulnerable.  But, anything close to that Gulfstream effort and the rest of these are running for second money today.

9 Rose To Gold (15/1)

Rose to Gold is the "feel good" story of the Oaks.  She cut her teeth at Calder where she won in her debut by 13 easy lengths.  And here's the amazing part...unlike most horses who win a maiden race, go to allowance company and then make a stakes start, she won her debut IN STAKES COMPANY!  And she confirmed it by coming right back to win a second stakes by 13 easy lengths at Calder.  Her connections sent her into the Grade 1 Alcibiades at Keeneland, and I think you can toss the loss as an obvious dislike for a synthetic track.  She came off a layoff and probably SHOULD have won the Mount Washington at Oaklawn Park, but her rider did not let her run on the lead and tried to rate her.  Bad idea as she finished second.  Recently elected to the Hall of Fame jockey Calvin Borel took over and she's promptly won back to back graded stakes at Oaklawn easily dominating wire-to-wire.  She tries nine furlongs today for the first time and being a front-runner she'd have "issues" with the outside post anyway.  But considering the other speed types in here Borel will either have to take her off the lead - which she's shown she doesn't like - or she'll be part of a speed duel.  Either way, her chances look compromised.  I will say that 15/1 is a huge price considering her talent however.

10 Flashy Gray (10/1)

Early this spring she was the "now filly" that everyone was buzzing about.  She was an impressive winner of her second start, and it was HERE last fall in a sprint.  Then she came back and wowed handicappers with a blowout win in her sophomore debut at Gulfstream.  Off that she was favored in the Grade 3 Honeybee at Oaklawn, but was easily handled by Rose To Gold.  She shipped to New Orleans and ran a good second behind Unlimited Budget.  So, you could make the case that with minimal improvement she could turn the tables on those rivals.....or you could say she's already proven that she is just not quite as good as those two....that's where I am.

11 Close Hatches (6/1)

Here's the filly I WANT to bet.  I think she is every bit as good as her rivals today; she's already won at nine furlongs, having won the nine furlong Grade 2 Gazelle last out.  And no one, absolutely NO ONE is riding better or with more confidence than Joel Rosario, who rides her today.  She goes for the powerful international stable of Juddmonte Farms and is trained by Churchill Downs all-time leading trainer, Hall of Fame trainer Bill Mott.  And she is a big price at 6/1.  My three reservations are these - (1) she's only been out three times.  While that's a good thing in that she's already run fast enough to compete with the top ones and she must have room for improvement, does she have enough foundation and experience to win today?  (2)  both of her last two wins have been on the front end while going two turns; so either she will get cooked in a speed duel - because she will NOT outrun Beholder and Rose To Gold from gate to wire - or she will have to sit off the pace, which she has not done in either of her route wins.  But....note that in her sprint debut she came from mid-pack to rally from 9th eight lengths off the lead.  Finally (3) I was not encouraged by Mott's comments in the DRF when asked about her chances..... " Close Hatches worked four furlongs by herself in 47.51 seconds. She went her first quarter in 23.02 seconds and galloped out five furlongs in 1:00.73.  “She was super,” trainer Bill Mott said.  Close Hatches has made three starts, making her one of the fillies with the least experience in this deep field.  “It would take a special horse to overcome a lack of experience,” Mott said. “We’re taking our chance. It’s definitely a challenge; that adds a little more to it.”