Kentucky Oaks Day Analysis
6-Churchill 8.5f Grade 2 La
Trionne
1-Imposing Grace (10/1) - On the upside, she has won here at
Churchill Downs in her lone appearance here, albeit in a one-turn mile
allowance event, and you can make something of a case that she was
best-of-the-rest second behind today's favorite Believe You Can in both of her
last two starts in listed stakes at the Fair Grounds. But, the fact that she never was a threat to
that one, you have to figure she's up against it in here.
2-Authenticity (6/1) - She is unbeaten at today's 8 1/2 furlong distance,
including a blowout win by 17 widening lengths in allowance company at
Gulfstream two back. She was
best-of-the-rest behind her stable-mate Ciao Bella in her last, the Grade 3
Rampart on Florida Derby Day. And the
fact she's out of Todd Pletcher's barn must count for something. She's a contender, and will be a fair price.
3-More Chocolate (5/1) - Looms the main threat to the
favorite, especially with the white-hot riding Joel Rosario in the saddle. 'Chocolate spent the first seven races of her
career on the turf and built a 7/2-1-1 record.
But two back trainer John Sadler moved her to the main track and tried
graded company in the Grade 2 La Canada Stakes at Santa Anita. She responded with a solid win, earning a
speed figure that would make her a threat today. She was second last out in the Grade 1 Santa
Margarita to one of the best older mares in the country, Joyful Victory (who
was loose on the lead that day). It's
also encouraging that the only time she ran this distance, she won....and the
jockey that day? Joel Rosario!
4-Believe You Can (7/5) - Has to be one of the favorites if
not THE favorite based on her last appearance here - it was exactly one year
ago today when she ran in the Grade 1 Kentucky Oaks and WON! That day she had Rosie Napravnik in the
saddle, making her the first female jockey to ever win this race, and they are
reunited today. Her winter was spent at
the Fair Grounds beating up on lesser, listed-stakes quality gals. Today she steps into the deep end of the water....but
she's proven she can handle that type as she is a multiple graded stakes
winner. She'll need her best today, but
I believe Hall of Fame trainer Larry Jones did everything he did this winter
with this race circled in big red letters as his main goal.
6-On Fire Baby (8/5) - This time last year she was one of the favorites for
the Kentucky Oaks as she entered the 138th Oaks with multiple graded wins,
including the Grade 2 Golden Rod here as a two-year-old. She was 4/1 that first Friday in May, only to
finish a well-beaten fifth behind 13-1 Believe You Can, who she faces again
today. She pulled the stunning upset in
her last, the Grade 1 Apple Blossom under a clever ride at 12/1. Appears to me that the Apple Blossom was her
big target for the spring and she's here because she won - not because she was
aiming for today's prize.
7-Class Included (20/1) - You have to give her props for
winning 10 of 20 starts; I don't care who you are running against, that kind of
consistency is admirable. However all
those races were at much smaller race tracks in the Pacific Northwest and the
only time she's faced quality mares she was no where to be found. Not today.
8-Draw It (30/1) - Has only two lifetime wins, one in her last race when she
finally cleared her non-winners-of-one allowance condition. Her big claim to fame is a second in the
Grade 1 Gazelle behind Breeders' Cup Champion Awesome Feather - but that was in
2011 and she's never earned a speed figure close to that since that fall
afternoon two plus years ago.
7-Churchill 8.5f - Turf Englewood
1-Street of Gold (30/1) - In her last four races she has a win
- in a one mile Turfway allowance race over the main synthetic track - and
three losses by a combined 30+ lengths.
Winless over the grass, this would be a big surprise.
2-Broken Spell (15/1) - She started her career as a two-year-old on the turf,
scoring in her second start and then just missing in the PG Johnson Stakes at Saratoga
3-Kitten's Dumplings (4/1) - Has shown some solid turf form,
including a stakes win, and in her best showing a good second to the highly
talented Tapicat in the Grade 3 Florida Oaks at Tampa Rosario
4-Judy In Disguise (10/1) - She's won 3 of 5 turf starts and her
only North American turf start - that's the good news. The bad news is she's never been two turns
and her only turf stakes try, in Europe , was her worst effort.
Wouldn't be the biggest shock if she stole it on the front end, but it
would be a surprise.
5-Birdlover (4/1) - Her best efforts have been on the front end, most
notably when she just failed to last in a Grade 3 in her latest. That was just three weeks ago and she looks
to have company on the lead today. She
has shown rating ability, so maybe she sits the trip. She's got the Santa Anita Derby winner's
connections with trainer Doug O'Neil and jockey Kevin Krigger.
6-Private Ensign (8/1) - On the one hand she's never been on
the turf, but she has the Tomlinsons to indicate she might like it. She's never won a stakes race (only five
career starts), but she was third behind Dreaming of Julia in the Grade 2
Davona Dale. Trainer Dale Romans said
last week he thought he had a lot of horses ready to run big at the meet. Would have liked to have seen her on the turf
previously.
7-Emotional Kitten (15/1) - She does have two turf wins, but was
soundly defeated in her lone stakes start by today's rival, Kitten's
Dumplings. Would be a surprise.
8-Praia (20/1) - Broke her maiden in her last start, though you could be
encouraged it was also her first turf start.
Not for me.
9-Tokyo Time (3/1) - Demonstrated her raw talent when a close second to
the ultra-talented Tapicat last December in her second start. That filly came back to dominate an allowance
field and then a graded stakes in her next two.
Off that loss, Tokyo Time destroyed her maiden rivals over the
Gulfstream lawn, wiring a nine furlong event.
She improved her speed figure and demonstrated an ability to rate when
thrown into the Grade 3 Herecomesthebride in her first start against
winners. However, after rallying from
6th to challenge for the win she was out-bobbed on the wire by a good one in
Kitten's Point. She's fresh off a break
for Shug McGaughey with top pilot Javier Castellano.
10-Wave Theory (9/2) - Another lightly raced filly who is as good as the top
two (Kitten's Dumplings & Tokyo Time) having finished a neck back of
'Kitten in the Grade 3 Florida Oaks.
Have to wonder however if she can replicate that effort as that was a
peak effort and she will need a trouble-free trip and a solid pace to make her
late kick effective.
11-Adrianai (15/1) - She's exchanged decisions with Emotional Kitten and
finished as close to Tapicat as the other two logical favorites in here. She has the added disadvantage of the far
outside draw.
8-Churchill 7f Grade 3
Eight Belles
1-Chortle (20/1) - Is unbeaten in her three-year-old season having rattled off
wire-to-wire wins in her maiden sprint at Hawthorne
2-Fusaiichiswonderful (9/2) - She was a Puerto Rican superstar at
two when she went five-for-five, including Group stakes. The competition has to be questioned of those
fields however. For her sophomore season
she was switched into the powerful Todd Pletcher barn (because you know how
he's starving for quality runners....not).
He immediately entered her into the Grade 2 Forward Gal against arguably
the best 3-yo sprinter in the country Kauai Katie. She was a distant fourth that day but came
right back in her next start to score in an overnight Gulfstream stakes. Just the connections make you consider her as
a win alternative: Pletcher - Castellano
are among the best in the business.
3-Blueeyesintherain (8/1) - If she is allowed to leave the post
at 8/1 that is simply a gift from the racing gods. Consider these facts.....she won her debut
HERE drawing off by nearly four widening lengths going 4 1/2 furlongs despite
starting from post six. In her second
start she again won impressively in the Grade 3 Debutante, HERE. Must have faced some problems as she was gone
from June 2012 until three weeks ago when she showed up at Oaklawn Park
4-Sittin At The Bar (20/1) - She's an interesting proposition
after having rattled off back-to-back state-bred sprint stakes as a juvenile at
the Fair Grounds last fall. In her
latest she won the two-turn Crescent City Stakes - another state-bred stakes -
at the Fair Grounds on Louisiana Derby Day.
The cut back to seven panels is a classic move.
5-Renee's Titan (8/1) - Hails from the connections who brought us last year's
Derby winner and holds the honor of having taken down the reigning 2-year-old
filly champion, Beholder (one of the favorites in the Oaks later today) when
sprinting 6 1/2 furlongs. But its a bit
disconcerting that in the three races surrounding that upset she was beaten 10
1/2, 13 3/4, and 11 lengths. Which filly
shows up today. At least you'll get a
fair price.
6-Neith (50/1) - D. Wayne Lucas sends this filly out, and for what reason, I
couldn't really explain. Perhaps it's
because three-year-olds can have a sudden reversal of form without any
indication? Or maybe it's just the idea
of turning back from a two-turn-turf attempt to a 7 furlong dirt sprint can
sometimes reverse form? Would never
expect her to win.
7-Spring Venture (15/1) - Could be a surprise package in
here. Simply the fact that she IS here
indicates her connections have not given up on her. She started her juvenile season by winning
three straight at her home base in Woodbine - two on turf and one on the poly
surface - the last two being graded stakes.
She was thought enough of by her connections to be sent to the Breeders'
Cup Juvenile Fillies and handicappers thought enough of her to send her off at
odds of 7/2. But she was badly beaten -
13th by better than seven lengths. She
showed little in her sophomore debut in the aforementioned Forward Gal, but
then won the state-bred OBS Sprint - interesting it was over a poly
surface. But she was once again buried
in the Grade 1 Ashland at Keeneland in her last when trying two turns
again. If able to recapture her early
two-year-old form, maybe. Her work over
the track does not indicate to me that she will run well today however.
8-Gold Medal Dancer (15/1) - Hard to judge her ability. She's only been out twice, and won both. The first was an Arlington
9-So Many Ways Saratoga
10-Irish Lute (30/1) - She has a single win, her maiden win....which was
here. And she has never seen graded
company. The outside post isn't any
bargain either. Nope.
11-Dancinginthecircle (8/1) - Jockey Rosie Napravnik has had a lot
of success for trainer Larry Jones and she was a fast closing second at today's
distance to a repeat winner at this distance over this track last October in
spite of a troubled break. She would be
no surprise considering the connections.
12-Touch Magic (8/1) - Yet another solid contender in this deep and
contentious field. She has never been
out of the exacta in five career starts.
The race to focus on is two back when she had Rose to Gold in deep
stretch, only to be run down by that one in the Grade 3 Delta Princess. She bounced out of that to take the
Silverbulletday Stakes at the Fair Grounds, one of the early preps for the
Grade 2 Fair Grounds Oaks, but she has not started since that win. She will be running late.
12-Calistoga (7/2)- This unbeaten filly is the program favorite at a
tepid 7/2. She has great connections -
Hall of Fame trainer Bill Mott (all-time winningest trainer at Churchill) and
the white-hot Joel Rosario. Both her
wins at Gulfstream earned huge figures and a repeat especially of her maiden
win, when she received a 97 speed figure, would make her tough in here.
9-Churchill 8.5f Grade 2
Alysheba
1-Patrioticandproud (20/1) - He has won on turf and on synthetic
and he has Joel Rosario on board, who won with him last out in a Keeneland
allowance. But, he's never won on
"real dirt" and he's never raced here. Have to take a dim view of the lone dirt race
showing - an allowance at Gulfstream where he was beaten 16 1/2 lengths -
yikes!
2-Laughtrack (20/1) - Has won three of his last four, but like his
uncoupled entry-mate, the rail runner, he's never been on real dirt. Has a sharp bullet work over the Churchill
surface. Expect him to be part of the
early pace picture.
3-Right to Vote (20/1) - Has had flashes of talent, without
winning, in graded efforts (note the third to champion Union Rags and second to
Mark Valeski). Hard to believe that
today's his day to suddenly make a huge move forward.
4-Hymn Book (3/1) - As a seven-year-old he's only made 21 starts, but
he's won EIGHT of them, and if you look carefully he's only had one bad effort
on the main track going back to 2011 in nearly all graded stakes. The two times he dropped into listed stakes
he won, as he should. Seems to like to
be all around it without winning.
Garrett Gomez a strong big money rider - don't dismiss him to lightly.
5-Richard's Kid (5/1) - When he ran for Bob Baffert he was very consistent in
big graded events with big Beyers. But
since being moved into Doug O'Neil's barn he just hasn't been the same
horse. If he suddenly wakes up and
reverts to his old form he'd be a threat.
No apparent reason to think that will happen today however.
6-Take Charge Indy (4/1) - He looked to be on his way to
victory in the Grade 3 Skip Away on Florida Derby day, only to be run down late
by emerging star Cigar Street
7-Macho Macho (5/1) - Going back almost exactly a year to his win HERE on
Derby Day he's had fine form, even winning the Grade 2 West Virginia
Derby. He's a fit in with these, but
like so many others in here he'll have to show up with his "A" game
today and there's no overwhelming evidence he will....nor that he won't!
8-Bourbon Courage (4/1) - After winning his first two starts
he has been in eight consecutive graded stakes.
The first two - both around one turn - are the ONLY races in that streak
where he failed to hit the board. I
liked him enough to make him my top selection in the Grade 1 Donn Handicap
where he was a good second. He followed
that with a solid third in the Grade 2 New Orleans which was dominated by the
one-two runners all the way around the track.
Given the anticipated pace scenario today I think he has a good shot to
get his first win of the 2013 season.
9-Cyber Secret (7/2) - On speed figures and recent form he is the one to beat. He has an up-close, stalking style which will
probably require him to use some early energy to gain position into the first
turn. If able to get position without
losing too much ground he could be a solid win candidate. He's certainly the pick for those who back
the "now" horse.
10-Churchill 8.5f - Turf Grade
2 American Turf
1-Anyriderill Do (12/1) - In his first try around two turns he
stole his latest with pedestrian fractions.
He'll be sent from the rail, but will have to deal with some pressure
and quicker splits today. Would be
surprised if he held off the quality finishers in here today.
2-Bashaar (8/1) - He's won his last two impressively, and both were KEY races
with the runner-up from both coming right back to score. The problem is that those were on the main
track and he's never seen the turf.
Tough spot to try grass for the first time. BUT.....if the weather forces this to the
main track he becomes a big factor. And
an off track would be even more to his liking as evidenced by his 13+ length
score over the sloppy Oaklawn main last out.
3-Channel Isle (15/1) - This colt has two wins - his maiden score and a win
over 2-lifetime allowance foes....no.
4-Noble Tune (3/1) TODAY'S BEST BET - This guy is TALENTED!
He debuted for Chad Brown going two turns over the Saratoga Tampa
5-War Dancer (6/1) - He broke his maiden pressing a moderate pace going
nine furlongs at Gulfstream. But in his
last he was "unprepared" at the start and trailed early. He was rank for the rider but in spite of the
trouble he was flying at the finish to clear his entry-level allowance with a
big finish. Needs to step up with these.
6-Positively (15/1) - Made his turf debut in his last, and was also flying
through the lane in the same event that saw War Dancer win. He was second that day beaten only a half
length. He should improve second-time
turf, but it's a long way from nw1x allowance to Grade 2 company.
7-I'll Call (15/1) - He won his debut maiden race in his last and only
start. Very unusual that top trainer
Graham Motion would send him straight into stakes company. Perhaps he won't as he's cross-entered for a
race on the Thursday card.
8-Tenforthemoney (30/1) - Won a maiden claimer two back and
was a close third, beaten only 1/2 length in the War Dancer race last out. Like the previous two out of that spot it's a
big jump up today.
9-Admiral Kitten (4/1) - He has two wins and a photo-finish
second in three of his four starts. The
other finish is a toss after a stumbling start.
His speed figure in that last photo-finish second is the top last-race
figure of the field. So, on numbers he
has a good shot. But he makes his stakes
debut today. You have to be happy that
trainer Michael Maker and Ken & Sarah Ramsey are his human
connections. But it is very curious that
Joel Rosario is NOT on board, and instead rides for one of his former clients,
breaking from the far outside.
10-Fire Guard (8/1) - He's earned big numbers in his two wins, but those
were in a maiden and an entry-level allowance spot. His two turf stakes starts he was a
non-factor. Add in the outside post and
I would be surprised if he shows up first on the wire.
11-Joelito (12/1) - Very curious that Joel Rosario accepts the mount for
top California
12-Redwood Kitten (8/1) - Another Ramsey-owned 'Kitten
colt. This one does his best running on
the front end. The colts inside of him
who've shown speed are not confirmed front-runners like this one. Look for jockey Elvis Trujillo to sprint out
of the gate, quickly assume command and try to back the pace down. Could last a long time and boost the exotic
wagers at a more than fair price.
13-Prado Cat (30/1) - Gets Hall of Fame rider Gary Stevens but he looks
completely overmatched in here.
1 Silsita (20/1)
Not to
diminish the local Calder course, and it's true that their 2-year-old program
is one of the finest in the nation, but... I would be very surprised if this
Calder graduate was posing with the lilies in the winner's circle today. After breaking her maiden at first asking -
over the turf, in a photo finish - she changed hands and made her next
appearance in an allowance dirt route at Gulfstream. She showed brief speed and then wilted. She came back over the Gulfstream turf, again
in allowance company and set the pace before weakening to be third. Off a break she returned in the one mile,
Grade 3 Bourbonette at Turfway Park
2 Midnight Lucky (9/2)
If you are
looking for a "surprise" filly, this would be the one. Nearly everyone who has been watching the
fillies and colts this week going through their morning workouts were just
buzzing about this gal's work on Monday morning. She was working in company with a colt (who
was on the fringes of the Derby HOF
3 Beholder (7/2)
She is the
2012 Juvenile Filly Champion; she won the Grade 1 Breeders' Cup Juvenile
Fillies; and in her last three two-turn starts she has not one, not two, but
THREE GRADE 1 events. It's hard to NOT
put her near the top of win contenders, even in this stellar field. I think she has a very good chance to win the
lilies today, but she is not my top selection.
Why? First of all, she is a front
runner, and she has never traveled nine furlongs. So, she would be asked to do something she's
never done before. And that would not be
out of the question in most years, but this year not only are their quality
fillies tracking her, but she will not be alone on the lead. So now we are asking her to not only go
farter than she's ever gone, and on the front end, but while battling company
the entire way. Second, in all three of
her two-turn, Grade 1 victories, she was loose on the lead and had everything
her own way. No one challenged her from
the moment the gates
opened until she cruised across the wire.
I do believe she can sit off the other speeds and stalk the leaders, but
to me this simply means we are asking her to try a new running style, in the
biggest race of her life, against other superstar fillies AND going a distance
she's never gone. She looms to be one of
the favorites and is very dangerous, but if she can beat me, then I'll let her
do so.
4 Unlimited Budget (7/2)
I think
this is the filly to beat. She is a
perfect 4-for-4 in her career, so she has been battle-tested, but still is
lightly raced enough to still have room for improvement. She is trained by the best trainer in the
world, Todd Pletcher, and she is owned by one of the most competitive owners in
the US
5 Seaneen Girl (20/1)
On the
upside she was third to Unlimited Budget in the Fair Ground Oaks and she does
have the top jockey in the country today in Rosie Napravnik (who won this very
race last year!). And if you are looking
for a longshot, you could do a lot worse on one factor alone.....she has
already won here! After losing TWICE for
a claiming tag last fall she was ambitiously in the Grade 2 Golden Rod here in
November. Sent off at 30-1 odds, she
stalked the pace and blew by in the stretch.
Her speed figures are close enough to warrant consideration and you have
to like the fact that she has only made one start as a sophomore and that was
finishing just four lengths behind Unlimited Budget in spite of giving up
seasoning and coming off a four month layoff.
Hmmmm, very interesting at a BIG price.
6 Princess of Sylmar (20/1)
This gal
came flying from 10th and last in a 5 1/2 furlong sprint debut to lose by only
two lengths in her debut. She then was
sent two turns and won her maiden in style by NINETEEN widening lengths; next
to allowance company going two turns - another blowout win; next in a $100K New York New York
7 Pure Fun (30/1)
Much like
Seaneen Girl you have to at least give her a cursory glace because in her one
and only appearance under the twin spires she won by nine widening lengths in a
career-best performance. Off that
November blow-out win in allowance company she was sent out west to run in the
Grade 1 Hollywood Starlet....and she won!
She closed from out of the clouds, so you could make a case for her
picking up the pieces her with the anticipated hot pace, and with her obvious affinity
for the sometimes quirky Churchill dirt.
And in a "normal" Oaks field I'd give her a better than
outside chance. But this year she is
facing five legitimate superstars. Would
be surprised if she scored.
8 Dreaming of Julia (3/1)
Anyone's
opinion on the 2013 Kentucky Oaks has to start with what your opinion is of
Dreaming of Julia. After quickly
becoming the early divisional leader last summer she was life and death to win
the Grade 1 Frizette at odds of 1-9. She
shipped to California
9 Rose To Gold (15/1)
Rose to
Gold is the "feel good" story of the Oaks. She cut her teeth at Calder where she won in her
debut by 13 easy lengths. And here's the
amazing part...unlike most horses who win a maiden race, go to allowance
company and then make a stakes start, she won her debut IN STAKES COMPANY! And she confirmed it by coming right back to
win a second stakes by 13 easy lengths at Calder. Her connections sent her into the Grade 1
Alcibiades at Keeneland, and I think you can toss the loss as an obvious
dislike for a synthetic track. She came
off a layoff and probably SHOULD have won the Mount Washington at Oaklawn Park,
but her rider did not let her run on the lead and tried to rate her. Bad idea as she finished second. Recently elected to the Hall of Fame jockey
Calvin Borel took over and she's promptly won back to back graded stakes at
Oaklawn easily dominating wire-to-wire.
She tries nine furlongs today for the first time and being a
front-runner she'd have "issues" with the outside post anyway. But considering the other speed types in here
Borel will either have to take her off the lead - which she's shown she doesn't
like - or she'll be part of a speed duel.
Either way, her chances look compromised. I will say that 15/1 is a huge price
considering her talent however.
10 Flashy Gray (10/1)
Early this
spring she was the "now filly" that everyone was buzzing about. She was an impressive winner of her second
start, and it was HERE last fall in a sprint.
Then she came back and wowed handicappers with a blowout win in her sophomore
debut at Gulfstream. Off that she was
favored in the Grade 3 Honeybee at Oaklawn, but was easily handled by Rose To
Gold. She shipped to New Orleans
11 Close Hatches (6/1)
Here's the filly I WANT to bet. I think she is every bit as good as her
rivals today; she's already won at nine furlongs, having won the nine furlong
Grade 2 Gazelle last out. And no one,
absolutely NO ONE is riding better or with more confidence than Joel Rosario,
who rides her today. She goes for the
powerful international stable of Juddmonte Farms and is trained by Churchill
Downs all-time leading trainer, Hall of Fame trainer Bill Mott. And she is a big price at 6/1. My three reservations are these - (1) she's
only been out three times. While that's
a good thing in that she's already run fast enough to compete with the top ones
and she must have room for improvement, does she have enough foundation and
experience to win today? (2) both of her last two wins have been on the
front end while going two turns; so either she will get cooked in a speed duel
- because she will NOT outrun Beholder and Rose To Gold from gate to wire - or
she will have to sit off the pace, which she has not done in either of her
route wins. But....note that in her
sprint debut she came from mid-pack to rally from 9th eight lengths off the
lead. Finally (3) I was not encouraged
by Mott's comments in the DRF when asked about her chances..... " Close Hatches worked four furlongs by herself in 47.51
seconds. She went her first quarter in 23.02 seconds and galloped out five
furlongs in 1:00.73. “She was super,” trainer Bill Mott said. Close Hatches has made three starts, making
her one of the fillies with the least experience in this deep field. “It would take a special horse to overcome a
lack of experience,” Mott said. “We’re taking our chance. It’s definitely a
challenge; that adds a little more to it.”
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