Friday May 3
For today I only had handicapped the Churchill Downs card and I had come up with eight races on the card that I felt I had an edge in. Included on that selection list were picks in all six of the featured stakes races - which I had analyzed, and posted online each individual horse in the race. My first selection was in the 4th, and allowance race and my second selection wasn't until 90 minutes later in the Grade 2 La Trionne, so played the first one via TwinSpires before heading out to the races. Sweet Shirley Mae was a generous 7/2 but fell way out of contention before making a belated run to be fifth. My plan had been, since I knew there was going to be a lot of time between races, to handicap the Saturday card while I was at the track. I had handicapped the entire Derby Day card at Churchill on Thursday, again including individual horse analysis in all seven of their stakes races. Before the racing began I completed the analysis of both the Calder and Belmont cards. So that left only Arlington (which had opened today) and Hollywood. I was not surprised when I got to Calder to find my selection in the La Trionne, Believe You Can was the odds-on favorite. She had been ultra-impressive all winter and today she was returning to the scene of her greatest victory....she had won the 2012 Kentucky Oaks when I was here with my Mom, my daughter Julie and her cute friend Shelby (see banner photo above). My filly was tracking the pace and as they spun out of the turn she was asked for her best but she simply flattened out. It was a stirring stretch duel with the winner being Authenticity - who I had be on at Gulfstream on Florida Derby Day, and she'd run second.
The seventh race on the program was the Edgewood Stakes, on the turf for three-year-old fillies. Last year this had proven to be the lone stakes winner I'd had on Oaks Day when I picked Ken & Sarah Ramsey's Stephanie's Kitten. Ironically today it was another Ramsey-owned filly, Kitten's Dumplings, that I favored. She had run very well over the winter when she had been second to the very talented Tapicat in the Grade 3 Florida Oaks at Tampa. As they moved down the backstretch hot-riding Joel Rosario had her well back in the field, but he began making up ground heading into the turn. As they spun out of the turn and heads turned for home he had her in the clear and with all the momentum. By the furlong marker he'd collared the leaders and then with powerful strides she drew off to win going away by daylight and under wraps! My first winner on the day and she paid a very generous $8.40.....with my double investment I collected over $40! Whooo Hooo!
Because there was so much time between races, and because I did find many selections I liked at either Arlington or Hollywood, by the time Kitten's Dumplings crossed the finish line I had completed my handicapping. My original plan to stay until before the featured Oaks now would mean I would be sitting for nearly 3 hours with nothing to do. So I made my bets for the remaining five race and headed home to watch on the big screen. I got home with about five minutes to post time for the Grade 3 Eight Belles. This was a seven furlong sprint for sophomore fillies and as I'd looked over the full field I thought the race was a complete toss-up. But one filly caught my eye, So Many Ways. What made me pause first was I recalled when she'd had her 2013 debut at Gulfstream and I had been watching on HRTV. She had concluded her juvenile season by winning the Grade 1 Spinaway at Saratoga and had passed on the Breeders' Cup. Her owner Maggie Moss was interviewed that day and talked about how talented she was and that they were hopeful she would make it to the Kentucky Oaks. Well, she had been beaten that day in a listed stakes, then she was beaten in the Fair Ground Oaks going two turns. So today she was cutting back to seven furlongs - I like that angle. And even more, I liked the fact that the Spinaway was a seven furlong sprint. So here is the LONE GRADE 1 winner at the distance, who's owners are very high on and her program odds were 6/1. She was my bet. She had big money rider Garrett Gomez riding today and as they left the gate she was an even bigger price at 7/1. She too was far back and Gomez saved all the ground through the far turn. Then he had to swing about eight wide as he began mowing down fillies. Inside the 16th pole he had all the momentum and it was just a question of if he had enough time to get to the wire first. Inside the final fifty yards she drew even and surged past just at the wire! YES! The toteboard lit up to the tune of $17.40 and I was ready to cash for another $40 plus. Whooo Hooo x 2! With this win I had covered all but about $10 of my investments and I still had my two top selections to go - it was looking like I would be a profitable winner on the day!
The 9th was the Grade 2 Alysheba and I went with Bourbon Courage who was a fair 7/2. Fourth in an even effort. The 10th was my BET of the Day - the Grade 2 American Turf. A turf race for three-year-old colts. Noble Tune had won his first two races going two turns on the grass in impressive fashion and was my selection last fall in the Grade 1 Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf. He had been second that day to a Euro when he rallied late to miss by a length. His comeback race and sophomore debut had been in allowance company at Tampa and he'd won in THE MOST dramatic stretch run I've ever seen in an allowance race, maybe in any race. He was last with a sixteenth to go, hopelessly out of it, but had somehow exploded through the lane to win. I thought he was a sure thing today. I was especially confident because unlike most deep closers who were dependent on a fast pace to set up their late run, he'd shown he had the same punch even when the pace was slow. Jockey Javier Castellano saved all the ground and was closer than usual to a slow pace. As they spun out of the far turn he was in perfect position, but behind a wall of four horses. Then the leader drifted off the hedge - Castellano said GO and it was all over. Noble Tune inhaled the leaders and was gone in the blink of an eye! WHOOO HOOO x3!
He paid a more than fair $5 and I cashed for $50 making it a certainty that I'd be a profitable winner on the day! Next up was the featured Grade 1 Kentucky Oaks. I thought any of six of these talented fillies would be odds-on in any other year, but they were all meeting today. The one filly I thought would be the favorite - and deservedly so - was Dreaming of Julia. But I was completely against her. She had won the Gulfstream Park Oaks by an eye-popping 21 plus lengths. Her speed figure said she would win the Kentucky Derby by daylight! Not the Oaks, the Derby! Her Ragozin speed figure said it was the fastest race by any North American thoroughbred in the HISTORY of racing. Now, she had been impressive but I don't know that it was THAT impressive. And I thought for sure she would regress off that effort and be way overbet. However, I thought even if she regressed some ten points on the Beyer scale she still could win. But, as I told my son Jeff on the phone before the race, I'd never been convinced she was as good as everyone said and I was willing to take a stand against her. I thought the "other Petcher" filly (he had four in the race), the unbeaten Unlimited Budget was every bit as talented and looked to be the best fit for the pace picture. I considered making an Oaks-Derby bet, but even with all six of the top Oaks candidates and a similar number of Derby runners I was up to over $40 and felt that one of the two races would have a big longshot and I'd be better off betting to win as I usually do. I was so confident in Unlimited Budget I considered upping the investment, but then I asked myself - do I think she has a better chance than Noble Tune. The answer was no, so I'd stuck with my original investment plan. As they turned for home the race had played out just as I thought as the two dueling front runners looked to be about to be run down by the stalking Unlimited Budget and Dreaming of Julia was struggling in fourth, no threat to win. Then out of the blue one of the two "obvious toss-outs" - a Pletcher filly at nearly 40-1 blew by to win. It was the longest priced winner of the Oaks in some fifty years! It was anti-climatic when my last pick ran third.
So for the day I had scored on three of eight, nearly 40% and had a big profit on the day! Tomorrow is Derby Day and not only am I loaded with Churchill Down picks, but I have several selections for the other four tracks.
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