Summer 2013

May 4 - Kentucky Derby Day

It was a full day of racing today as I headed out to Calder for the Kentucky Derby Day card.  I had nearly 30 selections from four tracks, with an emphasis on the Churchill card and it's multi-stakes race undercard.  On this day last year I was surrounded by five lovely ladies......

And while it was a great experience, on that day I cashed a single ticket.....in the last race of the day!  I was hoping for better today!  If you had asked me a little after 2 pm if I thought it would be, the answer would have been an emphatic NO!  Racing started at 10:30 am in the opener at Churchill Downs where Apropos looked MUCH the best and was bet to 4/5.  He took the lead at the 16th pole and I kept waiting for him to draw off, but then was going to be happy he'd surged to the lead when he was caught in the final strides by a rail-skimming longshot.....second - a harbinger for the remainder of the day!  I ran 4th at 3/1 in the 3rd at Churchill Downs as the rains started to fall.  The only good thing about the rain was as I watched HRTV there was a report that Shug McGaughey said he would scratch Point of Entry from the Grade 1 Woodford Reserve and his showdown with my BEST of the day Wise Dan....I would be upping the bet if this happened!  So I headed out and arrived at Calder with plenty of time before my first live bet.  It came in the 5th in a nw1x allowance for three year olds.  Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert did not have a Derby runner this year, but Code West had been under consideration for the Derby until a week ago, so he was a huge favorite here.  He was trapped on the rail until late and then came flying....PHOTO FINISH!  Second, again.  Sigh.....At Calder Bea Wildcat looked to spring the upset by taking the field wire to wire in their opener.....third in a close finish.  The rains in Louisville were really coming down at this point, and I was (a) so sorry for the over 150,000 fans who were all dressed up for the big day and (b) so glad we were not there this year!  The 6th was the Grade 3 Turf Sprint and with all the rain I reexamined my selection in Icon Ike.  He looked best under normal circumstances by speed seemed to be holding.  But as I looked at the front runners I didn't like them.  The only horse I would NOT have bet won at nearly 12/1.  As I looked back at his form in his native Brazil, where he had gone unbeaten, they were ALL over heavy or soft turf courses.  How did I not see this?  Wow.  I lost again with my first play of the summer at Arlington where it looked like Izzaeven was a sure winner, only to be nailed late, second, again.  And then at Calder Dreaming of Jimmy was loose on the lead until they hit the stretch and then he backed up to third.  By this time it was after 2 pm and I wondered if I was ever going to cash a ticket?  But I kept telling myself that the odds were in my favor and I had some big bets coming up.  FINALLY a winner.  The 3rd at Belmont was a maiden special turf route and I liked Todd Pletcher's Denali Causeway.  First, his name appealed to me as we'd been in Denali National Park a couple of years ago - landed on a glacier high in the mountains that day......

but anyway, Pletcher was a 37% winner with second time maidens.  As they came through the stretch it was a nose-to-nose stretch duel.  I was on the inside and as I watched the race I couldn't even see my horse's head on the wire....SOOOO CLOSE!  The photo came up - WINNER! 

Even though I only had the minimum on it, I was happy to finally be on the board.  When I analyzed the Grade 1 Humana Distaff I really liked Aubby K, but decided to go with the price play #4 Emma's Encore.  6th at 8/1 while Aubby K won and paid $9 - another sneak peak into the future as it would turn out.  At Belmont I liked first time starter Crackerjack Jones in the 4th.  His trainer had huge return-on-investment numbers with these types of runners.  Crackerjack broke two lengths behind the field, but recovered and rallied to be second best, missing by less than a length - the start having cost him the win....sigh.  The next race on my card was the 3rd at Hollywood.  This six furlong sprint featured a lot of speed and I landed on Power of Nine.  Not only did he have the right closing style, but he was first off the claim for an outfit that had a solid $2.03 return for every $2 bet on their first-off-the-claim runners.  As they hit the far turn Power of Nine was so far back he wasn't even in the television picture!  But as they turned for home he was coming like a freight train!  He rolled by the leaders and won going away.  Best of all he was 4/1 and I'd doubled the bet!  YES!  I got back $50 and was back in the hunt for the day!  WHOOO HOOO!!!! 

I missed at Belmont with a Pletcher maiden at 4/1 when she was 4th, missed at Calder when even money favorite Defend was a non-threatening 3rd and was very disappointed when double Beyer advantage favorite Lake Maracaibo was caught in the final strides - yes, second again, at 3/2 when I'd tripled the bet.  But, I got my winning mojo back on then.  The string of winners started when I hit my first winner at Arlington.  Card was a debut runner for Michael Stidham who was a 21% winner with jockey E.T. Baird.  Wire to wire at 2/1, cleared over $16.  Then at Churchill Downs I had a "prime-time PLUS" bet in the Grade 2 Churchill Downs Sprint.  I LOVED Delauney.  I was a bit concerned when I noted that Jill Byrnes did not have him in her top three....what the???? But then I thought, like last week I was sold on my pick, BIG TIME, she was wrong.  Delauney tracked Breeders' Cup Sprint champion Trinniberg (who I STILL am not a believer in) to the top of the lane and then drew off to a HUGE score by double-digit lengths.  I was delighted he went off at 9/5 as I had $30 to win on him....AWESOME!  The winning ticket was worth nearly $100! 

I hit my third in a row at Hollywood in the Cool Frenchy Stakes.  And in retrospect I wish I'd hammered this race.  For some reason multiple graded stakes winner Comma to the Top was not only NOT the favorite but was 4/1 throughout the betting. At post time he was better than 2/1.  What is going on?  I thought, am I missing something?  Usually when the crowd is ice cold on such an obvious winner something is amiss.  So I stuck with my original double bet.  He was TONS the best and I was happy to cash for over $30.  But what if I'd gone $50 to win?  Oh what could have been! 

I was shocked in the Grade 3 Ft. Marcy when Speaking of Which - who had been 2nd in the Grade 2 Twilight Derby on Breeders' Cup weekend was dead last at 7/5 at Belmont.  And after missing at Arlington I was oh-so-close in the Calder feature when Canadian Mistress was second by a nose in a photo finish.....yes, second AGAIN!  But then it was time for my BET of the DAY! 

Even when Point of Entry, a multiple Grade 1 winner was going to run, 2012 Horse of the Year Wise Dan was my BEST.  But now with that one out I knew I wanted to up the bet.  The question was how to structure the bet and how much.  Nagging against changing the bet was the short price, low return on my play vs. the negatives of the off going and the fact he was going nine furlongs today and a mile seems to be his best distance on the turf.  I was afraid that he'd go to the front too soon and then not be able to last or that he would not go to the front and another speedster would steal it.  Then I considered an double with Wise Dan - ALL in the Derby, but figured everyone would do that (turned out I was right, it paid $8).  Finally I settled on less than the $100 I wanted to play and went with $75 to win.  Wise Dan sat just behind two leaders, one a cheap speed, and made his move turning for home.  Boy he was impressive, even though the field was not the toughest he's seen.  Won by double digits and my ticket was worth over $120!  Made my day! 

I made my late bets and headed for home to watch the Derby on the big screen.  It was a big disappointment when my "best" at Belmont, Dream Peace, took the lead in the Grade 3 Beaugay and hung late, finishing 3rd.  I was also disappointed in my Derby bet. All week I told Kim I'd settled on Orb, and he was the one I wanted to bet.  But on Wednesday when the Derby post-position draw was held and Verrazano got a perfect draw and was NOT the favorite I decided to make him the bet.  Still, I was unsettled.  I went back and forth between he and Orb and after the Oaks I was seriously considering betting both because I'd profit on the race with a nice return even by splitting the investment.  But finally I decided that as easily as it could be one or the other of these two, it could just as easily be one of eight others - especially with the track being a mud bath.  So I just backed off my bet on Verrazano  Everyone publicly liked Orb and I told several people I wanted him to win.  In spite of being the favorite he won and paid $12 and change.  Verrazano faded to 14th after being third heading for home.  Ironically jockey John Velazquez had picked Point of Entry over Wise Dan, and then watched from the jock's room with the scratch and he'd picked Verrazano over Orb after he'd ridded him to win the Florida Derby....bad day for Johnny V.  I got one more win in my final bet at Arlington when Annie Bellum ran away with their finale.  So for the day I scored with 7 of 27 (nearly 30%) - much better than last year!  I lost less than $5 for the day, and when combined with Oaks day, the weekend was a 10-for-35 handicapping success - 29% - and a profit on the weekend of nearly $40. And like Oaks Day, I was a big winner with my Facebook posting.  Early Saturday I listed four "best bets" - Marketing Mix scratched, I won with Delauney and Wise Dan, and Dream Peace was third - two for three.  If my Facebook friends had bet my bets on those three they would have profited nearly $75!