Summer 2013

Saturday May 11

Mother's Day Weekend

Opening Day At Monmouth Park

The weekend got off to a great start when Kim and I headed down to the Mai Kai Polynesian Restaurant Friday night.  With Sunday being Mother's Day, Kim likes to go out for dinner to celebrate, but she's not big on fighting the crowds.  We talked about going somewhere for something more than just a meal, so I suggested this venue.  And, we were real "party animals" by booking the late dinner and show!  We didn't get home until nearly 11 pm!  That's pretty awesome for us :)  We arrived about 8 pm, went to the bar, which is like sitting in the hull of an old wooden schooner.  Dinner was at 8:30 with the Polynesian dancers starting their performance at 9:30.  Those girls can move their hips, bringing all kinds of fantasy thoughts to mind!  And the fire dancers were pretty amazing to watch as well.  We had someone take our picture out in the gardens by a tiki statute.  A great way to kick off the weekend. 

Then Saturday I headed out to Calder to play the races.  I was a little unsure about how the day would go as the weather forecast for everywhere, other than at Calder was for not only rain, but heavy showers.  I felt bad for the people who manage the Jersey Shore facility - you always look forward to Opening Day and I'm sure that there would have been a huge crowd at Monmouth.  It was rainy to start the day, and then monsoons late in the card really put a damper, I'm sure on the crowd.  But they had a record opening day handle, so that was a positive.  My first two selections were the openers at Churchill and Monmouth.  I doubled the bet on Miss Anna Destiny at Churchill and had a minimum bet on Call Me Sweetheart at Monmouth.  As I walked away from the teller he called me back because he thought he'd given me the wrong track....sure enough, he'd given me Pimlico instead of Monmouth.  We made the exchange and I settled into a front row seat in the "Winner's Edge" simulcast area to watch my races.  I had the #1 horse at Churchill and she broke slowly, rushed up - not a good sign - then faded as they hit the turn.  A stretch duel developed and then it hit me.....I had the #1 AT MONMOUTH!  At Churchill I had #2 Miss Anna Destiny and SHE was battling through the stretch.  AND she WON!  What a great realization!  And a winner to kick off the day!  Whooo hooo! 

Less than five minutes later they broke from the gate at Monmouth.  The main track at the Jersey Shore seems to always play to speed, and what I liked about Call Me Sweetheart was that she had the rail and appeared to be the quickest of the speeds.  Sure enough as the gates opened, who was immediately in front? 

That's right, #1 Call Me Sweetheart.  She opened up early and was never threatened, crossing the line at least five clear of the runner-up.  She paid a nice $7.40 and I cashed my two tickets for nearly $40. 

A very nice way to start the day.  And then the parade of seconds began.....yes, just like Thursday.  At Belmont I had Lubango, the even money favorite.  He was confidently ridden just off the lead and you could tell that the rider felt he had the field measured.  He restrained the horse to the top of the lane, let him go, but couldn't run with the rail horse who rallied to draw clear late.....second.  At Calder I had a nice price play with Rhubarb Sauce at 6/1 on the grass.  Led to the final 100 yards then gave way to the favorite, second again.  At Monmouth I knew I was in trouble when my pick tried to rally at 4/5 - 3rd over he speed-favoring track.  At Churchill I moved quickly into the lead as they turned for home with Poliziano at 2/1, but could not withstand the late rally of the winner - SECOND AGAIN!  I tripled the bet on Firstotheline at Monmouth.  She had been a good second in her debut at Gulfstream for Todd Pletcher AGAINST THE BOYS, then came back to draw off convincingly while the runner-up was nine clear of the show.  Joe Bravo had the mount - looked like an obvious winner.  She broke slowly, was checked halfway down the back side, made a move into the lane, then was stopped behind a wall of horses, and finally had to shift out five wide to rally.  It was amazing she got third.  At Arlington the losing continued when J.Pa was the 8/5 favorite but no closer than 5th.  Belmont, SECOND again at 3/2 and then back-to-back longshots who ran to their prices.....6th at 7/1 and 7th at 5/1.  I closed the long winless streak with another main-track-only pick at Belmont who was a fair 7/2, only to run 5th.  I was questioning my time to stay at the races when FINALLY I cashed a ticket.  I was back at Monmouth and it was Pletcher-Bravo again.  Silver Lining John was the 4/5 favorite based on his debut at Gulfstream where he was best-of-the-rest second at even money.  He rated right off the leader to the top of the lane, battled to inside the 16th pole and then edged clear. I didn't care he only paid $3.60, I was glad to be able to cash a ticket, any ticket! 

I came right back to win my second in a row at Calder when Strong Fire rallied through the stretch to be up in time at 2/1.  I cashed those two tickets for over $30 and thought I was on my way to a comeback. 

Well, yes, but not yet......At Belmont another Todd Pletcher debut runner was 5/2 - broke slowly and was third on the wire.  At Calder I doubled the bet on Street Girl who was half of an entry on the turf.  But into the stretch it was her entry-mate who was on a clear lead, only to be caught in the final strides by the favorite.  That double investment at 2/1 would have been a nice payoff!  And I was no where to be found at Arlington in their 5th with a price play.  But finally I hit paydirt again, and this time made a wise investment decision.  At Belmont my pick was #1 Joe Alan, and my comments were .... "...confidently raised first off the claim, must only run down the faint-hearted favorite...."  Because I was afraid there was the chance the favorite would wire he field I was only in for the minimum.  As I walked to the window to bet I was surprised to see Joe Alan was the favorite; must be because Joel Rosario is on board.  Then I noticed, the front-running program favorite scratched.  Quickly looked at the Form - hmmm, looks like Joe Alan has the rail and the front to himself.  So I doubled the bet.  And he was an easy wire-to-wire winner!  GO ME!  Got back over $20! 

 

My pick at Churchill was way to far back early in the 8th, late running fifth, and then I won again.  But this time a not-so-bright decision.  #4 Micromanage was the 8/5 program favorite, and I thought deservedly so.  He'd won impressively in his Saratoga debut for Todd Pletcher.  Both of those facts said he had some talent.  In his next two starts he took on some of the best of his generation with back-to-back starts in graded stakes.  Today he was back into a non-winners-of-one allowance.  MUCH easier spot.  I planned to triple the bet.  I looked at the TV monitor and it was a shot of the finish line where it was POURING. The picture didn't change for the longest time....no paddock shots, no horses coming onto the track.  And now it was four minutes to post.  All the while the #1 was being pounded in the wagering at odds-on and Micromanage, who I thought was easily the obvious pick was 4/1!  The rain, the cold betting action, and no horses on the track all spooked me.  I thought, I'd be foolish to back away if he wins - but all the signs are saying this is NOT a good bet.  I compromised with myself.  I made a double investment.  The horses came on to the track and went right to the gate.  Right away Micromanage could not find any way to save ground and was at least five wide through the first turn.  All the way down the backstretch he could not get over, still wide.  Wide through the final turn and at least five wide into the lane.  He lost ground but was running late - P H O T O  F I N I S H!!!!!!

When the photo came up, I was the winner!  NOW I wish I'd stuck with my bet.  But honestly, I still think it was the smartest thing to do.  Collected nearly $35, so I'm cool with that.  I ran 4th, 3rd, and 8th with my next three.  I had two added investment races coming up and then with two weather-related scratches it was going to be nearly an hour until the next pick, so I made them my last two on-track investments.  First up at Hollywood, the Came Home Stakes.  Let Em Shine looked like the clear controlling speed and to be long gone from the rail.  Never threatened at even money.....cashed for over $20! 

Minutes later Work All Week looked easily best at Arlington.  He'd won his last two starts by a combined nearly twenty lengths in wire-to-wire fashion with clearly the best pace times, so I tripled the bet figuring he'd be a short-odds favorite.  Until right up to post time he was 2/1 and 5/2....I was licking my lips savoring a nice score.  Some of the crowd came to their senses and he went off at 8/5.  LONG GONE!  WHOOO HOOOO.  My ticket was worth nearly $40! 

When I got home I was able to watch the rest of the races on HRTV.  Scandalo ran second at Belmont.....Prime Number ran SECOND at Hollywood; Jersey Kiss was 5th at Monmouth (despite having won 3 of his last 4 and being 5/4-0-1 at the distance...wow);  And then it was my best bet of the day......Scarlett Strike in the Grade 3 Senorita Stakes on the grass at Hollywood.  She broke from post 8 and could never save any ground going a flat mile.  Late running, oh-so-close second....yes, S E C O N D again! 

I had posted four picks on Facebook as "Bests" of the day.  THREE of them scratched and now a photo-finish second :(  But the day ended on a high note when at Arlington I won again.  Earlier on the card I had picked a horse because it was a debut runner for trainer Larry Rivelli who wins 21% with those; and he had one of my favorite front-running riders in E.T. Baird on board - and they win 32% together.  That one scratched, but here in the 11th, first time starting She's Intoxicated was in the gate.  The crowd wasn't fooled and saw the same thing I did....she was the 3/2 favorite and won handily!  My ticket is worth a nice $25! 

And in my final play of the day, No Silent won the 8th at Hollywood.  It wasn't easy however.  It was a turf sprint and she broke slowly, came up the rail, was blocked into the stretch.....couldn't move outside, then at the 16th pole a seam opened between horses and top rider Rafael Bejarano pushed her through.  She rallied but so was a clear-running closer on the outside.....PHOTO FINISH!  But I was in front on the wire.....YES!  I had doubled the bet and some how the crowd allowed her to go off at 2/1 in spite of the fact that in three different appearances HERE at this distance on this course she was coming off a layoff, like today; with Bejarano, like today; and those had produced two wins and a photo-2nd.  I'll take the money! 

For the day I closed with a nice flurry of winners to push my totals for the day to ten out of 32 for a nice 31% win rate.  I nearly got back to even, and almost any one of the NINE runner-up finishes on the day would have put me over the top.  I'm sure if the "BEST" bets of the day had run I would have been a profitable player on the day.....shoot, just the Scarlet Strike near-miss would have made me a break-even for the day.  But, after the oh-so-slow start, it turned out to be a good day with a lot of winning picks!