Monday May 27 - Memorial Day
Sweep Hollywood's Graded Stakes
Sweep Hollywood's Graded Stakes
DISAPPOINTING OVERALL
On a day where I really thought I'd cap what had been a good weekend with several big stakes scores turned into a very disappointing day when nearly every "best" did not run to expectations. My first selection was at 1:05 and the second wasn't until 1:47, but I neglected to look closely at my sheet before heading out......the first was an "off the turf" only pick and skies were sunny and we were on the turf at Belmont. So when I arrived a little past 12:30 I had nearly an hour to kill. But, I have not been to the Calder Casino for a while so I enjoyed playing the John Wayne slots for a while - wish I could report a big score, but such was not the case. As the racing began I had doubled the bet on Alura Michele on the turf in Churchill's third race. She pressed the pace to the far turn but had nothing for the stretch drive. Miss Montauk reported the same run on the Monmouth turf in my next; Transplendid made it a trio of identical runs when he too took the overland pressing route over the Belmont sod and then hung through the lane. I lost my fourth in a row under the Twin Spires when Dapper Dude was second best at 7/2. No worries, I thought, I have my BIG bets coming later and am certain to score and even out the winning percentages. The second at Arlington saw me double the bet on Ann of the Dance - my only added investment of the day in Chicago. She was a good finisher and had been third in a stakes last year over the Arlington synthetic surface at this one mile distance, so the nw1x allowance test was a big class drop for her. But as they turned for home she had yet to run a step and was nearly ten lengths back of the long-time leader. Still, I did have the thought that "stretch runners do very well here" and with that she found another gear. As is often the case here the late runners seem to run as though they have a rocket pack on their back and she wove though traffic, was clear on the outside at the 16th pole and blew by to win by daylight! WOW! Finally a win and though she was the favorite, I'll take the nearly $20 payout.
At Monmouth My Kinda Party was first-time 2-lifetime and added blinkers for a barn that wins a big 35% with those - no matter, a dull ninth at 2/1. But I won back-to-back races to get back on track. First at Arlington where Richesthunderinggal was sent out by Larry Rivelli with E.T. Baird on board. Especially with front-runners those two are deadly. And in spite of the closer-bias of the track and the extended seven furlong distance, she went wire to wire to score. Sadly she was even money. In the fifth at Belmont I had originally not liked anything that much. But when I read the comments by DRF handicapper Dave Liftin, he liste Ornelia as his best of the the day. While her Beyers were consistently better than her rivals, but the 7/1-4-1 record was the kind of record I typically avoid. Still, I have found that when Dave Liftin lists a "best" he is highly accurate. OK Dave, I'm on board I thought. She blew by the field in the lane and scored at a more than fair $4.90 so I cashed for nearly $25, and I snapped my pic with a tribute to Mr. Liftin!
What followed was a series of six races where I was second twice and third three times without cashing a single ticket. Dimples was checked on the far turn at 2/1 and was third over the Monmouth inner turf course; Welter Weight was making his first start for Todd Pletcher - a very predictable win angle - and had last been seen last season running second to multiple stakes runner Bodemeister. He was 6/1 when I bet him but was pounded down to 2/1 favoritism. Then ran evenly from start to finish to be fourth. At Churchill Downs Anahauc was my pick in a nw1x sprint. There was a lot of speed to seemingly set up her big closing kick. I wrote in my analysis that I was not fond of her five seconds from nine starts, but today it looked like she would run by them in spite of that record. The race unfolded exactly as I had seen it, and in mid-stretch Anahauc was in full flight to the wire as she collared the surviving front-runner. But in the final sixteenth it was obvious why she had five seconds on her resume - she looked her rival in the eye and apparently said, "no, no... you go ahead with it" and refused to go by.....second. The 7th at Belmont was the first of four straight holiday graded stakes; it was the Grade 2 Sands Point for 3-year-old fillies on the turf. Watsdachances was my pick and the favorite. She was a multiple stakes winner, including a Grade 3 here last fall. The problem turned out to be that there was no speed in the race and the front-runner just loped along to the head of the lane and when Watsdachances came with her run the leader had more left in the tank and as gone. The day was best summed up by the next race - the 8th at Churchill Downs. If I were honest with all the "best" bets of the day I'd admit that all of the others had some obstacle to overcome, but Blues and Silver was beyond a "BEST" bet. The race was a starter allowance for runners who'd started for a $16K tag or less. Two races back he'd run for a $15K tag and won handily as the odds-on favorite. Prior to that he'd won for a $32K tag, a $25K tag and after that she'd won last out for a $40K tag. A BIG class advantage. Better yet, she was 6-for-8 on the turf and her last two races had earned Beyer speed figures better than any LIFETIME figure earned by any of his rivals. And topping the win angles, he was claimed out of that $15K spot by one of the hottest trainer-owner connections - Michael Maker for Ken & Sarah Ramsey. She had a pressing running style so she would not have to worry about being dueled into submission on the front end or a victim to the pace as a closer. She was 1-9 for a long time and deserving of the favoritism. But then when the gates opened, and she'd floated to a generous 1-2 odds, the rider instead of running just off the hip of the longshot leader, who'd broken just inside of him, decided to take back to nearly the rear of the field. With no pressure on the leader and caught well back in the field Blues and Silver now WAS a victim to the pace. He came with his run, but as they turned for home it was clear that the leader was long gone. Sigh.....racing, there is NO SUCH THING as a SURE thing. Minutes later where I thought I'd get some of my lost wager back at Hollywood Hard Rockin Girl did not run to her numbers, and the drop from maiden specials to maiden claiming could only net her a third place finish. WOW.
The second of the graded stakes at Belmont was up next and of the four it was the only one where I did NOT have a strong opinion of my selection. I did have a strong opinion AGAINST the favorite and I saw this as a great chance to make a score on a price play. My pick was Tiz Miz Sue who was the only filly/mare in the Grade 1 Ogden Phipps who had multiple triple Beyer speed figures. She had trouble in her last to darken her form and I thought I'd have a fair price. But with ten minutes to post she was the second choice at 2/1. So much for a price! But, by post time she'd floated up to better than 4/1 - so now I was intrigued. The favorite did not run well, which came as no surprise to me and as they turned for home it was Tiz Miz Sue who was running best of all! WHOOO HOOO at a $10.80 payoff! I could only wish I'd at least doubled the bet, but was rewarded with nearly $30 return on my investment.
Five straight disappointments, four of them BIG disappointments followed. Holiday Soiree was the 4/5 favorite in the listed Red Cross Stakes at Monmouth. She was dropping out of a third in the Grade 1 Humana Distaff, so this listed spot looked like easy pickin's for her. She came with a big late run, but when they turned for home she flattened out - 3rd. Missed at Churchill with a 5/1 price play. Itallian Rules had won the AOC nw2x condition THREE times already and was a 6x winner at the distance. Obvious choice in Hollywood's third race. You guessed it - third at 6/5. WOW. Then it was time for my BEST of the Day.... the Grade 1 Acorn going a one-turn mile at Belmont for three-year-old fillies. I was just mildly concerned that the top sprinter in the country for sophomore fillies, Kauai Katie might be stretching her distance limitations here, but she'd won with authority going seven furlongs. She appeared to be the controlling speed from the rail and I had "issues" with the other top contenders. But in spite of breaking sharply jockey John Velazquez did not go to the front. While it is true a longshot gunned to the front, JR didn't even challenge for it. I could sort of follow the logic that going the one mile distance he didn't want to engage in a speed duel, but by dropping back into mid-pack he'd taken Katie out of her element....I knew the chances of winning from off the pace were slim, and I was right - third at 8/5. Disappointing. It was with a wry smile that I noted the winner was ridden by Rosie Napravnik who had been Kauai Katie's regular rider until two races back....sweet justice. Right back with my "best" at Monmouth where Bella Castini looked much the best in Monmouth's co-featured Little Silver Stakes. But on the turn when she was skimming along the rail she had to check. I don't think she'd have gotten to the leader anyway. Wow, again.
Finally some good news. In the 4th at Hollywood it was the first of their two graded events, the Grade 3 Los Angeles. Bob Baffert's very lightly raced Fast Bullet looked to be a speed threat. Off of only two lifetime starts and nearly a year layoff he'd been entered into last fall's Grade 1 Breeders' Cup Sprint. He'd pressed the pace for half before folding up. But had come back a month later with a huge 109 Beyer to win a nw2x allowance. If nothing else he looked to compromise any other front-runner. But I thought my pick, Comma to the Top, was simply the best horse. He could out sprint Fast Bullet to the front and continue on to the wire, especially at six furlongs. So my plan was to double the bet. But then it was announced that Fast Bullet was scratched. Suddenly Comma to the Top was not only an added money investment, he became the BEST of the Day at Hollywood as what appeared to be the lone speed. Just as expected, right to the front and L - O - N - G gone. Even though he failed to switch leads through the stretch and was running on a "tired leg" he was still open lengths clear, motored down on the wire! I'll take my winnings and rejoice in FINALLY being right today!
One more race before leaving, the feature at Churchill Downs - the Grade 3 Winning Colors. Late this spring I'd read an article about Judy the Beauty making her return to the races at Keeneland. Her trainer and owner, Wesley Ward said they were targeting the Breeders' Cup. She won for fun that day and with those remarks in mind I saw this spot as a good step towards that year-end goal. She came running from just off the pace to challenge at the sixteenth pole, but could not get by - second. Sigh...... I made my last three bets and headed home for a Memorial Day hotdog on the grill with my sweetie and to watch the replays later.
The first of those was in the featured Grade 1 at Belmont, the Met Mile. In the prep for this race, the one-turn mile Grade 3 Westchester I had gone against "horse-for-the-course" Flat Out who was unbeaten at Belmont and went with the lightly raced Cross Traffic. It was a terrific race and a photo finish that day, but Flat Out proved his affinity for the surface. Today both were entered back, but unlike the Westchester where there wasn't anyone to press Cross Traffic, today there was plenty of speed to set the table for Flat Out. I know when to admit I was wrong, so I took him today as a prime-time investment because I KNEW many would ignore his record today as I had last time out. Sure enough he was a juicy 5/2 when they left the gate. Flat Out was checked on the far turn, stopping him momentum and maybe, MAYBE that cost him the race, but I don't think he would have won. Cross Traffic got clear late and looked to be on his way to a Grade 1 win in just his fourth start but he was nailed on the final head bob in another great finish. In the second of the three late bets Super Ability had wired the Grey Memo Stakes in his last, and because that was a state-bred stakes he was eligible for today's open nw1x allowance test. He looked to be the main speed and long gone again. He was Brad Free's "best" bet as well. The gates sprung open and a 30-1 longshot quarter-horsed to the front. Super Ability sat just off the leader and looked in a perfect position. A late runner ran by them both on the turn and Super Ability was all out just to get second. WOW.....just how many disappointments could there be today?
The final race of the extended weekend proved to be the very BEST race of the weekend. It was Hollywood's feature, the Grade 1 Gamely for older fillies & mares going 1 1/8 miles over the turf. One of my very favorite turf runners, Lady of Shamrock was running and when I'd read she was in today she had been my initial choice. But then I later read in the days approaching the races that Marketing Mix was also entered. She had been a big winner for me a couple of times last year and was coming off a close second in the Grade 1 Breeders' Cup last November. Two others figured prominently, Tiz Flirtatious who was coming off a convincing win in the Grade 2 Santa Ana and Halo Dolly who looked to have a pace advantage over the other three. The race itself lived up to it's billing, but made it even more so to me was the back stories........
First, Lady of Shamrock. She had dominated the sophomore turf events on the west coast last season and had been compromised in her 4-year-old debut by a slow pace. In her second start of 2013 she was again compromised but laid closer to the front and was making a winning move when checked on the rail by the front-runner. She was put up to first - as my top pick - but both races had earned less than inspiring Beyer figures. Would she get a pace set-up today? Did the low numbers indicate that she wasn't quite as good against older? Second, Tiz Flirtatious......She was a top state-bred turf star and had run second twice with three wins in her last five turf starts. She had beaten Lady of Shamrock in the Gr 2 Santa Ana in her latest, but had benefitted as a pace-presser and the fact that Lady of Shamrock was also coming off a layoff. BUT, with untrustworthy Julien Leparoux on board, I would not be betting her. Third, Halo Dolly. She was a NINE-time winner on the turf, and 2-for-2 here at Hollywood. She looked to be right up on the lead, if not THE leader. And with big-money rider Garrett Gomez she would be very dangerous at a price. Finally, Marketing Mix. In her last ELEVEN races she'd only been out of the exacta one time - and that one time was on Kentucky Derby Day last spring when she was MY TOP CHOCE! Now on that fact alone I was hesitant to make her my pick. But her last three Beyer speed figures were ALL better than the LIFETIME best figures of every other filly & mare in here. Still, she had not run since the Breeders' Cup on the first weekend of November.....could she run big today off that kind of layoff? Well my logic was that she had been entered for the Grade 2 Churchill Downs Distaff Mile on Derby Day so I thought she'd already been prepped for a big race, so technically she was not being readied for her first start; and secondly she had recently un-retired Hall of Fame rider Gary Stevens in the saddle. I thought he'd have her perfectly placed with every chance to win. This morning I wavered briefly on my analysis and selection of Marketing Mix when I read that Lady of Shamrock's trainer John Sadler had said she'd never have to be a victim to the pace again as her owners would be sending out a "rabbit" to the race to ensure a good pace. Hmmmm, but in the end I thought that while this would aid her, she would have to (a) prove she could be better as a 4yo and (b) have to run a career number to beat one of Marketing Mix's "average" races.
The race unfolded just as I thought, and when they lined up across the course turning for home I knew "it was ON!" I was a bit surprised that Lady of Shamrock wasn't just flying on the outside to make it three across the track at the sixteenth pole, but Tiz Flirtatious and Marketing Mix laid it down through the final one hundred yards.....PHOTO FINISH! Check it out.....
For the weekend I had analyzed nearly 175 races; made selections in nearly eighty of them and had nailed TWENTY-SIX WINNERS! That works out to a big 32.9% win percentage; and that my friends is good handicapping no matter how you cut it. As I've often said, the secret to winning at the races is not only being a good handicapper, which is obviously very important, but it's in how you manage your money. This weekend, and on this day, my money management had not been as "on" as my winning selections. Next weekend we turn the page to the third month of the summer season as June rolls around. The month will provide the first of two BIG highlights as we will be at Churchill Downs on June 15th for "Downs After Dark" on Grade 1 Stephen Foster night - and will in all likelihood see superstar Royal Delta in the Grade 2 Fleur de Lis Stakes.
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