Summer 2013

Thursday May 23 - NINE WINS!

Back On Winning Track

I decided on Wednesday to buy the Racing Form and head out to the races on Thursday.  I flirted with the idea of using one of my many numerical handicapping tools - Sartin pace analysis or Klein speed figures - but in the end decided that I am consistently winning races, and on occasion getting good prices, why change what's working?  The only reason I'm not making money is the way I bet my choices.  And as I've always said, that is half the story of winning at the track.  And I've also said that for me, as much as I'd like to win money, I am more focused on being a good handicapper that picks winners.  So I stuck to my own analysis methods which are based on individual race analysis with different angles for different circumstances.  And today it paid off handsomely!  I won with 45% of my picks - that is impressive! 

I won the first bet of the day when I went against the favorite at Churchill Downs.  I backed Excessiveness who was coming off a powerful maiden win at Keeneland, and while I usually look for last-out maiden winners to regress, trainer Michael Maker has been on such a roll I felt like that last race win (the first start under his care) might be a harbinger of better efforts to come.  I was surprised that the favorite was 3/5 and even looked at her as the race was underway - did I miss something?  But after a glance I felt I made the right choice, and when they hit the top of the lane jockey Rosie Napravnik asked Expressiveness for her best and she blew by the favorite and won under wraps!  I missed when I doubled the bet on the favorite in the Calder opener and King Khalifa broke down on the far turn.  But I bounced right back with two straight wins.  The first was at Belmont when Bella Epoque wired the field just as I anticipated she would......was irritated I didn't invest more.  And then scored at Calder when Ms Bloomfield High became the latest first-off-the-claim winner for Team Calabrese.  The numbers say they win 43%, but it seems a LOT higher here at Calder!  I doubled the bet on her and I am off to a 3-for-4 start to the day! 

I was so surprised when Big Screen did NOT win the 2nd at Belmont.  Not only did he look much the best on paper; not only was he the cover picture-story of the Form; but the field was reduced to three horses with scratches!  He was a fair 2/5 considering only two horses to beat, and I looked at the 2/1 second choice and really thought he was no threat.  Who would have figured that a horse who was WINLESS since 2011 would get the best of the favorite?  And that win two years ago came at 34/1!  Wow....racing, you gotta love it :)  No worries, came right back to score in a 2-year-old MSW at Churchill.  Teardrop was sent off as a low-priced favorite in spite of making her debut, then broke outward and slowly spotting the field about five lengths in a 5 furlong dash.  Rosie Napravnik gathered her, got her into stride, swung four wide on the turn and blew by them all to win by daylight!  When I cashed this ticket  was off to a four-for-six start to the day!

Disappinted when Tiger - another Team Calabrese horse - was second best at Calder, but scored right back at Churchill when Bernata made a dramatic run from the back of the pack to score. 

For the first time today I lost two in a row when I was a very close 6th at Calder and third at Belmont.  The 7th at Calder was going to be my BET of the DAY and I'd decided as I pulled into the parking lot that it was a $50 win bet.....but my pick was scratched.  So was a second horse so before I scratched the race off my list I re-examined the remaining runners.  The Team Calabrese entry, Majestic Express looked much the best of the field.  I doubled down on him and he blew by the leaders turning for home and won easily, motored down on the wire!  WHOOO HOOO! 

Missed two in a row again - back-to-back fourth place runs at Calder and Belmont.  I had one more live play before I planned to head for home, and it turned out to be my third winner locally.  The finale at Calder was scheduled for the turf, but as is the practice at Calder with a beautiful sunny summer day we were OFF the turf because it rained yesterday, wow (as a point of reference it was raining TODAY at Belmont and all the turf races went on as scheduled).....but anyway, Swinger's Party looked appealing to me on either surface.  In two of her last three races she'd faced graded stakes winners Live Lively and Emollient.  And as I wrote in my notes, "....there is no one like that in here...."  She went right to the front and never looked back! 

I had six late bets and headed home to watch the replays on HRTV later.  In the first of the late races Malibu Queen at Belmont became the second selection of mine to break down and not finish the race - what are the odds?  But in my BEST BET of the Day, as it turned out because of the Calder scratch, Ghost Is Clear romped at Churchill Downs.  I initially was skeptical of her, but when I read Byron King's analysis - and she was his best - I was not only going to make her a bet, but because of her big class edge I made her my best.  She was bet down to 4/5, which I thought was a fair price considering.  Collected nearly $30 for the investment :)  I was a very good third at 11/1 in the Churchill finale - good bet, no win.  And then won my last race of the day at Hollywood when Tribal Chatter was the narrowest of photo finish winners at 3/1 as Brad Free's "Best"....the winning ticket was worth more than $40 and insured a winning day!  On the day I won nine of twenty, an amazing 45%!  Off to a good start to the Memorial Day weekend and I'm looking forward to the multiple graded stakes over the weekend.