Saturday May 25
Memorial Day Weekend Part 2
ANOTHER ELEVEN WIN DAY!
It was another excellent day of handicapping, and I was MOST pleased to cash two big tickets on my "BET of the DAY" selections! I was sad to read in the paper that with the impending head-to-head dates conflict with Gufstream many "insiders" think Calder may close. I would really hate to see that, but it's sure not a good sign that for the first time in the history of the track they won't have a live Memorial Day card - in fact today's feature is the Memorial Day Handicap, but because it's being run today it's simply the "Memorial Handicap." And this picture of the grandstand as post time approached on a holiday/Saturday card tells the whole story......
But let's start at the beginning of the day. I saw on the weather forecast that most of the northeast was going to have a lot of rain so I anticipated a lot of "off-the-turf" races and scratches. I had over forty selections from seven tracks for today, but didn't know how many would fall victim to the weather. As it turned out I lost seven picks to the weather, and most of them were in the first 1/3 of the day. But I had back-to-back double investments to kick off the action. The first was at Churchill Downs where Denali Holy Bull looked to be odds-on for sure. He had tons of back class, was being dropped from high level claiming events to the very bottom of the ladder, but had been claimed by the trainer for himself, so I figured he wanted the win and if the horse got claimed it was a double pay day. Denali romped under a hand ride to the wire. Didn't pay much, but I cashed for nearly $15 and I'm off to a winning start! I came right back and Calder with what looked t be an obvious winner, but Loveyouallthetime was only second best as he could not run down the loose-on-the-lead front runner. At Woodbine I doubled the bet on a first time starter in a 2-year-old maiden race, only to see him blow the break and spot the field about five lengths.....sigh. And then I was second again with and entry (actually ran 2nd - 3rd) at Belmont on their sloppy main track. FINALLY back in the winner circle in Calder's 4th. In a wonderful turn of events we were actually ON the turf today. My original selection had been to double the bet if the race came off the turf, but to go in for a minimum if it stayed on the grass. With the race staying on the turf my selection, Starship Wildcat, was being bet down to odds-on. I liked him a lot because his speed figures towered over everyone else's, but his turf races were in five furlong sprints and he'd never gone two turns - today it was a 7 1/2 furlong event. But with Tomlinson figures saying he could handle the distance and the heaving betting action I decided to up the bet. Sometimes I'm so smart I could just jump back and kiss myself :) His odds floated up to 6/5 and he walked with the race on the front end.....easy-peasy-pie! I celebrated joyously!
I had the lead at a nice 7/2 in my next at Churchill Downs, but Billybillwillywill could not hold off the favorite - second, again. My next was a triple investment at Monmouth, where it was also raining, felt so bad for them: two weeks ago on Opening Day it poured, and today is the big kickoff to Memorial Day weekend (a huge weekend for tourism on the Jersey Shore) and it was pouring (and cold) today. But it didn't both my selection Pro Prospect who went right to the front and drew off with every stride. Just WALKED with it and I cashed for over $25. After an excellent third at 7/1 at Woodbine I rattled off three straight wins! The first came at Belmont when Love to Run was allowed to go off at a juicy 3/1 and he drew away from the favorite handily - paid $8.40 and I got back over $20; the second was at Churchill where Future Prospect also went off at 3/1 and also drew clear of the favorite - though he had to hold on to win over a late-running longshot. The even better $8.80 led to another $20+ payout. And I topped the trifecta of wins when Richies Sweetheart went wire-to-wire at Arlington as a first-time starting two-year-old for top juvenile trainer Larry Rivelli. So I'm off to another quick start, like Thursday, having won six of my first eleven. Reality set in over the next two plus hours however........
I was a late-running, very close third in a Calder turf race, disappointing third on the turf at Arlington, then a huge disappointment when Strut the Course was only 4th in the Lady Angela Stakes at Woodbine where not only did she look good to me, but was Jim Bannon's "BEST" of the day. I swooped to the lead in Calder's 7th with Richard Croy only to see him stop on a dime to finish 8th then Western Tease looked to wire the 7th at Churchill, only to break five lengths behind the field....9th. At Monmouth I was right there on the turn at 9/5, but couldn't gain any ground, third and then Canadian three-year-old turf filly of the year was second best in the Grade 2 Nassau at Woodbine. Back-to-back off the board finishes at 5/1 led me to the last loss in the streak, and it was truly "one that got away." The Grade 2 Sheepshead Bay was still on the very soggy turf at Belmont. And I had taken that into account when I selected Strathnaver to win. As they were in the paddock I looked over the runners again and re-read Dave Liftin's analysis. A horse that really intrigued me was Tannery, who Liftin had commented about, "...the more boggy the turf the better for this guy....." He was on the board at double-digit odds and just had the look of a runner who would definitely appreciate the 1 3/8 mile distance over soft grass. My pick SHOULD run well, but had not proven it yet. I debated back and forth and finally stuck with my original pick. Bad move.....I was 6th seemingly unable to get any traction on the yielding ground while Tannery relished the off going and scored at better than 10-1....sigh.
I know I've written it several times over the last several racing seasons, but one thing I am most proud about my handicapping is that I am very confident that I know when I'm right and do not let streaks of races that do not produce winners impact my decision making. So, my next two decisions are excellent examples of this. In the Calder feature, the Memorial Day Handicap (I'm still going to call it that!) I thought Csaba looked much the best in spite of coming off a layoff. He had won a small stakes here and then just missed last August in an off-the-turf Grade 2 at Saratoga, so I'd tabbed him in the Pennsylvania Derby, when I was in Philadelphia in September, only to see him run poorly. Off that race I dismissed him several times as he rattled off several stakes wins, including two graded stakes at Gulfstream. His last race had been in the Grade 1 Donn. So today's field were really soft IF he were ready to run. The comments in the Form from his connections seemed to tell me they were expecting a big effort, so I planned to go "prime time" on him. But as the race approached I thought - IN SPITE OF THE RUN OF WINLESS RACES and the "should have" miss at 10/1 at Belmont - I should up the bet on him. I re-examined the past performances and I did - I upped it to a $30 WIN bet. I thought he'd go wire to wire, but when a longshot "quarter-horsed" to the lead, my rider Manny Cruz smartly let him have the lead, eased to his outside and tracked him to the far turn. When the real running began he drew clear as TONS the best! I WIN! Good move Mr. Mark.
Well, that's only half the story.......post time for the Memorial Day Handicap was 4:53 and post time for what was my "BET of the DAY," the Grade 2 American Handicap from Hollywood Park was at 5:01. But as the previous races concluded at Calder and Hollywood their anticipated post times were a minute apart. So as I was considering upping the bet at Calder I was simultaneously considering the same move at Hollywood. Here my choice was Obviously who had been sensational last summer in wiring back-to-back graded turf mile events in just absurdly fast times. His fractions had been wicked and in both events he'd been all-out to hold off the closers, but he was one fast dude. His comeback race a month ago had seen him sprint down the hill at Santa Anita - not his best distance, but I thought with his high cruising speed he fit. He was only second best that day, so I anticipated a big move forward on the stretch to a mile today. And so he was my "BET of the DAY." But my plan was to only go "prime time" on him because there was at least one if not two others that would want the lead and could compromise his chances. I still thought he was simply the best horse, but didn't - originally - want to go "all in" with my investment because of the pace scenario. But as I was making the decision about Csaba I thought I should go $30 to win on BOTH of them. Before heading to the window I re-read the comments from Obviously's trainer and jockey. They seemed exceptionally confident. I thought to myself that he truly would run away from this field, even if the other front runners wanted to press the issue. I decided to up the bet....but to $50 TO WIN! I headed out to the rail to watch Csaba run live as Obviously was heading to the gate at Hollywood. As Csaba crossed the wire I boogied inside quickly to the simulcast window and they were hitting the far turn with Obviously in front by three AND best of all, the pace was not nearly as fast as he normally runs. The first thing I heard was track announcer Vic Stauffer call ".....and Obviously is loose on an easy lead turning for home....." I knew I was in! WHOOO HOOOO!
When I watched the replay later three factors led to his big win. First, he was the inside speed, which I had anticipated. Second, the closest front running longshot broke swiftly, but was taken back off the pace before they hit the first turn.....why? I guess he figured it was his best chance to get second money; and third the other front running wannabe was wide, so as he got into gear they were hitting the first turn and he had not chance to challenge the high cruising Obviously on the lead at this point. I rejoiced with my DOUBLE BEST BET wins before heading home for dinner and to watch the last several races on replay.
Of the last ten selections on my sheet I scored with two of the first three. Power Phil was a handy winner in the finale at Woodbine - I doubled the investment and cleared over $25. And Saw Ow was my choice to rally in a Hollywood maiden special event. But when the favorite left the rail open down the backside my rider took advantage and took them all the way to the wire. He paid a nice $8.60 and my ticket is worth over $20 - again! My best at Monmouth Buffum fulfilled my worst fears - he looked to be a one-turn sprinter, and he had nothing for the stretch as he tried two turns for the first time; Brad Free's "best" at Hollywood, Midnight Crooner was 2nd best at Hollywood. I was 4th in Arlington's Grade 3 Hanshin Cup and then I really thought I was going to get my big pay day when my "Upset of the Day," Indian Classic went off at 6/1 and just missed at Hollywood....second, again. I was a very close, but disappointing fifth in the last of three Grade 3's at Arlington with Procurement - tripled the bet. And so after all these races and wagers, the bottom line for the day came down to the final race. I was very pleased with the day regardless - I'd hit for well over 30% of my picks and had cashed on my "BET of the DAY" selections. It was the 8th at Hollywood, an optional claimer on the turf. I liked Vagabond Shoes who was 6/1 in the program but had lured top rider Rafael Bejarano. As they came out of the turn heading for home he had dead aim on the favorite......PHOTO FINISH!
It couldn't have been any closer......and at 3/1 I would have collected over $20, and it would have been a $10+ winning day; instead I lost $9.50....but had a GREAT day! Looking to continue my winning ways Monday when I'll play four tracks nationally at Calder's simulcast center......one last look at the two big winners on the day:
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