Kentucky Derby Day 139
Kentucky Derby Analysis & Undercard Stakes Analysis
6-Churchill 5f Turf Grade 3 Turf Sprint
1-Southern Dude (10/1) - Only 1-for-3 over the turf, but the
last was a nice wire win and he's worked four times over the Louisville
2-Havelock (7/2) - He's won five of ten sprinting on the turf, and the last
four wins showing on his resume are all photo finish wins! His last, at the expense of my pick came as
much through poor tactics (Leparoux, again) as Havelock
3-Regally Ready (4/1) - Has simply not been the same horse since winning the
Grade 1 BC Turf Sprint in 2012, here.
But.....his last was off an eight month layoff and best of all - he is
unbeaten over this course. Hmmm,
interesting.
4-Ghost Is Clear (9/2) - Another interesting runner....first,
you can't ignore the hottest rider-trainer connection in America
5-Cactus Son (30/1) - Before he's quickly dismissed as a longshot, consider
this....last year in this same race he was closing fast to be third, beaten
only 2 lengths at 25-1! Uh oh! Seems to have been in sharper form at the
time though - you could do worse for price plays.
6-Chamberlain Bridge (4/1) - He's a SEVENTEEN time winner in turf
sprints, a BC Champion over this course and has won 4-of-9 here. But, he's nine now and has a single win over
the last two years with three photo losses.
Wouldn't be a huge surprise, but seems a step slower these days.
7-Berlino de Tiger (15/1) - Third start in North America today will be part of the early
pace picture before wilting under pressure.
8-Icon Ike (3/1) - Back-to-back career efforts, and wins. He fits the track profile as a finisher, and
has a good post to track the race flow.
Rosie the top rider in America
7-Churchill 7f Grade 1 Humana
Distaff
1-Jamaican Smoke (5/1) - Speed on the rail, under Leparoux
again, but since winning his entry-level allowance four back he's set the table
in three straight stakes, only to surrender late. COULD last today, but it's a big class rise
here.
2-Rumor (5/2) - Beat the best west coast sprinting filly last time out in
the Grade 3 Las Flores in a near-career best speed figure performance. Has shown the ability to sit just off the
pace or rally from farther back which means she won't be pace dependent, nor
hounded on the front end. Hall of Fame
Mike Smith has been on board for her last four, of which two were stakes wins
at 6 1/2 furlongs. Win contender.
3-Same Cross (5/1) - Has been heavily favored in all four starts and you
have to be impressed that not only did she not disappoint in debut maiden run,
but was impressive in her next two as she cleared the nw1x and nw2x conditions
easily. Toss the turf effort last
out. Moves not only into stakes company,
but all the way up to Grade 1 here. Same
connections as the turf sprint, the 30% team of Napravnik-Jones. Dangerous.
4-Emma's Encore (8/1) - Live price play considering she'll be rolling late
and should enjoy the long Churchill stretch to work out a winning effort, AND
she's a Grade 1 winner. "The
Chief" - Hall of Fame trainer Allen Jerkens sends out this mare who was a
disappointment at Gulfstream this winter.
Needs a form reversal, but with the right pace picture.....
5-There Is No Limit (15/1) - High level claiming winner who just
cleared nw1x level - not today.
6-Aubby K (7/2) - She's only been out seven times and she's won three of
them. The four fillies/mares she was
beaten by were: On Fire Baby, Contested
(twice) and Grace Hall - all multiple graded stakes winners! She has the ability to run huge and she may
have even more room for improvement. Edgar Prado having a resurgent year. Looks good here.
7-Burban (10/1) - Speed figures are double digits below what it will take to
win; beaten nearly ten by Aubby K two races back.
8-Byrama (5/1) - She will take plenty of action because (a) she's lured Rosario Madison
9-Holiday Soiree (12/1) - Will want to be part of the early
pace, but the outside draw will discourage that. Looks overmatched in here
8-Churchill 8f - Turf Grade 2
Churchill Distaff Mile
1-Drama Drama (30/1) - Two wins, one her maiden win and one at the nw1x
level. Looks very overmatched.
2-Channel Lady (12/1) - How often do you get 12/1 on a Todd Pletcher graded
stakes winner? She fits the pace
scenario and has won at the distance.
Bejarano a strong finishing rider as well. Upset chance.
3-Daisy Devine (3/1) - Speed to burn and she draws inside the other
speed. She was a monster in listed
stakes over the winter and clearly best-of-the-rest in the Grade 1 Jenny Wiley
last out after having a clear lead into the lane. Not so sure she can run with the other pace
player in here in spite of the inside draw.
Also, her goal all winter was the Jenny Wiley so I'm not so sure she's geared
for a top effort here.
4-Frontside (30/1) - The other speed, and she appears quicker than Daisy,
but she also is not in the same class as that gal. I think she's a pace player to the far turn
that has no chance to win, but has every chance to spoil the chances of any
other filly on the front end.
5-Hungry Island (4/1) - A year ago she had a prep race at
Keeneland at a mile, where she ran well, and then in her second start off the
layoff she WON this very race. This year
she had a prep at Keeneland - and won - now moves to the Churchill Distaff
second off the shelf! Look out! Shug McGaughey runners are having a great
year and Javier Castellano is a top turf rider.
She will have a good pace to close into.
Looks dangerous to defend her title at a fair price.
6-Stephanie's Kitten (4/1) - She is a 2x winner here, including a
Breeders' Cup win at this distance. But
I'm concerned that the last SEVEN Beyer figures earned by Hungry Island
7-Karlovy Vary (12/1) - Will be pressing all the pace players and get first
jump into the lane, but don't think she measures up to the closers will battle
for the top prize on the wire.
8-Marketing Mix (5/2) - She had a great season in 2012 and had the lead in
deep stretch of the Grade 1 Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Turf, only to be
nailed late by multiple Grade 1 winner Zagora.
She has not run since then, but trainer Tom Proctor is a 26% winner with
runners off such layoffs. Gomez &
Proctor are deadly when handling a Glen Hills Farm runner, like Marketing
Mix. Her main rival, Hungry Island
9-Class Included (30/1) - Winless in two tries over the grass,
and beaten by rank 30-1 outsider Frontside two back.
10-Stopshoppingmaria (10/1) - Speedy miss had a resurgent winter
as she moved through her conditions and won the Gulfstream Lady's Turf Sprint
Stakes. While it's true she nearly wired
the Grade 2 Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf at this distance over this
course, she will be compromised by other speed types and her outside draw.
9-Churchill 7f Grade 2
Churchill Downs
1-Night Party (30/1) - Looks overmatched in this spot but should provide
pace pressure.
2-Hiero (10/1)- Could be a very dangerous longshot in this spot. First of all he's 2-for-2 over the Churchill
main track and one of those was at this distance, the other was the Grade 3
Derby Trial. Two back he scored at 7/5
when making his first start for Todd Pletcher.
Disappointed at odds-on in his last, but that makes today his third
start off the shelf. John Velazquez-Todd
Pletcher at 10/1 with a graded stakes winner who's won over the track? Uh oh.....
3-Laurie's Rocket (10/1) - Has won three of his last five, but
is 0-for-3 at the distance and looks outclassed here.
4-Handsome Mike (12/1) - His last two wins, both graded
stakes, were surprise attacks. He
unleashed tote board bombs at 19/1 in the Pennsylvania Derby last fall and then
in his last he won the Grade 3 Commonwealth at 7/2. Would be a surprise today in spite of his
2012 Derby
5-Unbridled's Note (5/1) - Made his first start on the turf in
the Grade 3 Eddie D, which led to him being the favorite in the BC Turf Sprint
down the hill. Second (to my longshot
winner, whooo hooo!) and then was life-and-death to score in a listed stakes
over the downhill course. That came
squeezed between two main track close finishes in graded sprints. Looks to be a "I like to be close
without winning" type in these big events.
Wouldn't be a big surprise, but doesn't appear to be "the one"
today.
6-Pass the Dice (12/1) - Has won five of eight career starts,
including a triple Beyer win over Hierro last out going a one-turn mile at
Gulfstream in allowance company. Steps
up in class today with an upset chance.
7-Politicallycorrect (15/1) - On the "glass is half
full" side he's 4/2-1-0 at today's distance and keeps Joel Rosario in the
saddle. On the "glass is half
empty" side, he was beaten more than ten lengths by today's rival
Unbridled's Note.
8-Trinniberg (8/5) - The defending Grade 1 Breeders' Cup Sprint Champion
and Eclipse award winning sprinter from 2012 makes his first 2013 US start
today. And there-in lies the rub. Horses making their first start after a trip
to Dubai
9-Delauney (2/1) - Today is "breakout day" for this sprinter! He has won FIVE STRAIGHT and ALL of them have
earned triple Beyers. His last two speed
figures of 110 and 111 give him a double Beyer advantage over the LIFETIME best
figures of the rest of his rivals today.
The comments about his winter string of wins was he was running
"....Breeders' Cup figures....." will be justified today, I
believe. He gets top riding Rosie
Napravnik on board again and as if you need more ammunition to support him, how
about this - he's a FIVE-time winner at today's unique seven furlong distance
and he is unbeaten in three starts over the Churchill Downs track. MUCH the best today and it's on to a course
pointed to the 2013 Breeders' Cup!
10-Churchill 9f - Turf Grade 1
Woodford Reserve Classic
1-Middie (30/1) - Eligible to outrun his odds and grab a share with two wins
locally and experience/wins at the distance.
But with only a single Grade 3 on his resume he'd be a surprise to be in
the winner's circle today.
2-Slim Shadey (12/1) - Hall of Fame jockey Gary Stevens is enjoying his return
to racing with many quality wins, and he piloted this guy to a Grade 2 win two
back on the front end. Look for Stevens
to shoot to the front and try to back the pace down while lulling the field to
sleep. He has three Gr 2 wins on the
front end, but those were all at 10 furlongs.
May have to run quicker here to lead them, and that probably puts him in
the role of a target for the big two.
3-Optimizer (20/1) - Had a wonderful winter in New Orleans
4-Silver Max (8/1) - He was one of the most exciting three-year-olds of
2012 as his lightning quick speed propelled him to six straight wire-to-wire
wins at distances from a mile to a mile and a quarter; and three of those were
graded stakes. Seems to be having issues
since moving up to face older rivals and you have to be concerned when he
didn't even make the lead last time out in the Grade 3 Appleton (where he was
my personal pick to steal it!).
5-Swift Warrior (20/1) - Well, on the positive side he's won
back-to-back Grade 3 races, one at today's nine furlong distance and he gets
Javier Castellano on board. AND he
should be positioned right off the speed to be one of the first to challenge
once heads are turned for home. On the
downside he just does not appear fast enough or classy enough to deal with the
outside two monsters of the race.
6-Jeranimo (8/1) - Nothing but Grade 1's and Grade 2's on his pp's and he's won
four of those showing on his resume. One
includes a defeat of eventual BC Turf champion Little Mike, but he'd have to
produce a lifetime best to challenge for the top spot here today.
7-Bim Bam (50/1)- I think his connections STILL hold on to that 2nd at 30-1 in
the Grade 1 Manhattan back in June 2011 and think they have a chanced. Winless for three years.....would be the
shocker of the weekend.
8-Wise Dan (6/5) - The defending 2012 Horse of the Year steps outside his
comfort zone - a mile on the turf - in making his second start of the
season. He was impressive in winning his
debut, not only when not fully cranked for the race and defeating the previous
year's winner (who was in peak form), but without having to produce his best. His last workout since that 2013 debut was a
sizzling bullet work going five furlongs in :59.3 over Keeneland's synthetic
surface. The question today is can he
translate that championship form to this nine furlong distance? I think the evidence says a big YES to
that......first, he won the Fayette and the Clark at this distance, the latter
a Grade 1 that earned him a 107 speed figure, which he has produced and
surpassed on the turf. Second, he should
be ideally spotted in a tracking position about two lengths off the targeted
front runners and have first jump on his chief rival in the next post position
outside. Third, he has the advantage of
recency over that rival. And finally,
like Wise Dan, that rival is probably better going a distance different from
today's race. Would love to see him run
away with this victory and come back in the Clark in six weeks when we will be at the
Downs !
BIG TIME!
9-Point of Entry (7/5) - I hope he takes a lot of money
because I don't think he can run with Wise Dan, at least not today, and not at
this distance. There is reason to
believe he could win today, and honestly if Wise Dan were not in the race he
would be a deserving favorite, but not my top choice. While it is true that he won three
consecutive Grade 1 races in New York
1 Black Onyx (50/1)
He's won
back-to-back races, the last the Grade 3 Spiral over a synthetic track. Outclassed here and the one hole only makes
matters worse for any upset chance he might be hoping for.
2 Oxbow (30/1)
He looked
like an early Derby
3 Revolutionary (10/1)
One of
three Pletcher horses who look very dangerous in here. The fact he's a WinStar-owned colt, ridden by
Calvin Borel, drawn near the rail, and trained by Todd Pletcher all conjure up
memories of Derby Derby
4 Golden Soul (50/1)
Has but a
single maiden win - hardly the prep you want to win the Kentucky Derby.
5
Interesting
that Javier Castellano chose to stick with this one, who LOST to Verrazano last
out instead of going with Pletcher's Revolutionary. He was the "buzz" horse in the
weeks following that fast closing finish in the Grade 1 Wood, but seems to have
"fallen from favor" since then.
Would not be surprised to see him win, but I think he's a cut below the
top ones in here.
6 My Lute (15/1)
I'd be
happy for the connections if he won because Rosie Napravnik is riding. But the truth of the matter he has two wins -
a maiden win and a $50K Optional Claiming win.
The fact he was a neck short of Revolutionary in the Grade 2 Louisiana
Derby last out says more about Revolutionary being a cut below than My Lute
being up with the best of his generation.
7 Giant Finish (50/1)
His lone
win was a state-bred sprint at Aqueduct.
Beaten soundly by rank outsider Black Onyx.....no.
8 Goldencents (5/1)
This colt
is a legitimate win contender and proved he can sit just off the leaders which
should be his position today. He hails
from the same trainer that won last year's Derby
9 Overanalyze (15/1)
Looking for
an upset horse who after the race everyone would shake their head and say,
"I can't believe I missed him!" - well this is the guy. He was highly rated after winning the Grade 2
Remsen at 9 furlongs to close out his juvenile season. But in his three-year-old debut he was a flat
fourth to Vyjack. Still, you could say
he needed that race. Many did not and
they paid the price when he stretched out from that mile race in the Gotham to the 9 furlong distance of the
Grade 1 Arkansas Derby
10 Palace Malice (20/1)
I really
believe this colt will be a multiple graded stakes winner by the end of the
year - just not today. I had him in the Bluegrass and when he moved to a clear lead
inside the 16th pole I thought he would be a big threat today. But then he was nailed on the wire by a deep
closer (who's in the field today), and I think he's just not ready yet for that
big effort he WILL have ..... later in the year.
11 Lines of Battle (30/1)
The UAE
Derby winner not only has to deal with a trip halfway around the world, but he
was life-and-death to hold on that night.
I think he's simply not as good as these guys, especially on the main
track.
12 Itsmyluckyday (15/1)
It would be
a great day for Calder if he wins, as he's locally based. His upset of the Gulfstream Park Derby came
at the expense of MUCH lesser foes that he sees today. His big claim to fame came in his next start
when he defeated the unbeaten Juvenile champion Shanghai Bobby in the Grade 3
Holy Bull. But besides that one, who
needed the race and was exiting the Breeders' Cup off a long layoff, there was
very little in the field that day as well.
In the Florida Derby he was no match for Orb and his connections quickly
said that the race was NOT their goal because the Kentucky Derby was. So, you're telling me that a Grade 1 $1
million race that is five weeks away from the Kentucky Derby is not a major
goal? Very unusual thinking. He think he's a very good Calder horse - and
that's it. In fact if anything, his
ability to give Orb a fight may be seen after the race as showing Orb is not
quite as good as everyone thinks.
13 Falling Sky (50/1)
His
connections have made no secret that they ARE going to the front. I think they are the sacrificial lamb for the
pressers, but because he won't have to run insane fractions to get to the lead
he will probably take them to the far turn giving his connections a lot of
early excitement before he fades back through the field.
14 Verrazano (4/1)
He's
undefeated and answered every question posed to him on the race track. He's trained by Todd Pletcher, ridden by
Johnny Velazquez and has been the Derby Uncle Mo. Derby
15 Charming Kitten (20/1)
He will win
graded stakes this year - on the turf.
He's the one Pletcher runner who would be a BIG surprise.
16 Orb (7/2)
Without
question, he's the one to beat. He
continues to improve with each race and each training effort. He will be mid-pack or perhaps a little
farther back and should be rolling like a freight train late. It's a little disconcerting that he is
excitable, which with the huge crowd, is a concern. And reports are he was spooked in the paddock
on Thursday. He is my sentimental pick
as I would love to see Shug McGaughey get a Derby Derby
17 Will Take Charge (20/1)
After
winning the Grade 2 Rebel in mid-March he's trained up to the race. His worst effort came HERE when beaten over
twenty-five lengths in the Grade 2 Kentucky Jockey Club.
18 Frac Daddy (50/1)
He won the
aforementioned Grade 2 Kentucky Jockey Club and I think you can draw lines
through all his winter races as nothing went right for him. You know he loves the track and his trainer
thinks he has a chance. Not completely
out of the question.
19 Java's War (15/1)
He's been
known to wait in the gate and then make a HUGE late run, as he did when second
to Verrazano in the Tampa Bay Derby and last out when just getting up in time
to win the Blue Grass. Was fifth behind
Frac Daddy in that Jockey Club race.
Maybe picks up a minor check by finishing strongly.
20 Vyjack (15/1)
Much like
Normandy Invasion he was high on everyone's list when unbeaten and heading into
the Wood. But since then he had a minor
physical issue, his trainer had to deal with suspensions and getting his
license to be here, and he was allowed to train here only if the barn was under
24 hour video surveillance. Not today.
21 Fear the Kitten
On the AE
list with little chance to get in and he'd be a huge surprise if he ran.
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