Saturday June 8

Belmont Stakes Day

BIG SCORE on my "BET of the DAY" But So Many Close Seconds!

When I'd finished handicapping for Saturday's big day of stakes races I thought I had a lot, A LOT of winners on my selection sheet.  Sadly, not the case :(  I got the hint right off the bat it might not be the kind of day I'd anticipated because as I'd handicapped five of my first seven selections were double or triple investments - which is unusual as these races are normally less predictable than the higher quality races found later on most racing cards - and I missed on my first FIVE!  The first race of the day at Belmont (11:35 post time) looked like a slam dunk with Master Cip having Beyer figures that towered over his rivals and the red-hot Joel Rosario riding.  The crowd saw what I did and he was bet down to 4/5.  He tracked the pace into the stretch and was moving to the lead, but I could tell he was not cruising by them like a 4/5 favorite.  He poked his head in front at the 16th pole, but then a 9/1 longshot just blew by all the struggling front-runners and I was a non-threatening third.  I thought this might bode well for me as my pick in the second was a longshot closer.  And Death Star ran like the 15/1 horse he was - never in it, 7th.  Doubled the bet at Monmouth and Small Secret was no where to be found at 6/5 despite his barn was a 36% winning barn first off the claim - wow.  Then It's Surreal was second at Woodbine in spite of the barn having huge 67% winners with 1st time Lasix.  Then live at Calder Bold Distinction was bet down from 6/1 to 9/5 with a move to a 40% rider-trainer team.....sixth.  Dave Liftin's "Best" on the Belmont card wasn't in any of the stakes races, but in a Maiden Special in the 4th where I was tripling the bet.  But Captain Davrick scratched.....sigh.  FINALLY a winner, but even that wasn't easy.  Vero's Hero was yet another first-time Kirk Ziadie runner for Team Calabrese with Edgar Zayas on board.  He was hammered down to 1/5 and looked the part entering the far turn.  But then a longshot came to him at the top of the lane, and at the furlong marker had moved past him!  You've got to be kidding me!  But he fought back along the rail and from my vantage point near the finish line I saw him dig down to hold on by a narrow head......hardly the kind of win you'd expect from a 1-5 favorite, but I was happy to finally cash a ticket (and a triple investment at that), even with a paltry $2.40 payoff. 

Coinciding with the big stakes action at Belmont both Arlington and Calder had multiple stakes races which were serving as prep races for their signature days later in the summer.  The firs of these at Arlington was at Arlington in their opener.  Work All Week had earned back-to-back triple Beyer speed figures while wiring his fields with sharp pace figures and looked to be an easy winner again today in spite of stepping up into state-bred stakes company in the Addison Camack Handicap.  He shot right to the front but had pressure from a longshot all the way through the far turn.  I was surprised he never spurted clear, but it appeared to me that the rider was just letting 'Week gallop along easily and he'd never asked him to run.  Sure enough as heads turned for home he suddenly opened up three lengths and I thought here we go.  But at the sixteenth pole a late runner had all the momentum and instead of galloping out strongly, 'Week looked to be weakening.  I could tell it would be close and it was.... PHOTO FINISH!  I watched the slow-motion replay several times and I really thought I'd won or even a dead heat......but no, second.  WOW - that kind of day?  Sigh......

In the early opener at Hollywood I was against the favorite and took 5/1 Bank the Eight.  Second best - yes, second, again.  At Churchill I had another price play at 9/1 - never in it when fifth.  Finally the stakes action started at Belmont, kicked off by the listed Easy Goer Stakes.  My pick was Power Broker who'd won the Grade 1 Frontrunner at Santa Anita, at this distance, last November as the pep for the Breeders' Cup Juvenile.  He just looked much the best on paper to me and I toyed with the idea of upping my investment from a double bet to a "prime time" bet, but I didn't.  Not sure if it was the ultra-slow start to the day or not, but I stuck with my original betting plan - should have gone with my gut.  He was a dominant winner under Rosie Napravnik.  I'll take the nearly $25 payoff. 

Next at Churchill Downs my pick dueled through the lane before finishing a very close 4th at 2/1.  Back to Chicago with yet another "obvious" winner - like Work All Week had been, not.  My former student and now top jockey Rosemary Hoemeister had taken the mount on Que Posse two races back when this runner had been claimed and she rode her to a big win.  Right back in her next she dominated again for Rosie.  Today she looked, on paper, much the best again.  She was tracking the pace as they spun out of the turn and she only had to collar the double-digit front-runner. Rose asked Que Posse for run and she ran right up to the leader and looked poised to run right on by, but as they hit the furlong pole it became obvious that the leader was not giving in.  Heads up and heads down the length of the stretch and again it was a PHOTO FINISH!  Again as I watched the slow-motion replays I thought I'd won, then no, then yes.....finally the photo came up....... 

YES, finally a photo win!  My first thought was that this would be the winner that would trigger the start of what I was sure to be a big run of winners through the remainder of the day.  Proven Warrior was a triple investment for me next up at Hollywood.  Even though I know that it's unlikely for a maiden runner to run back to a huge Beyer from a debut race, even a regression by ten points would make him the easiest of winners.  He sat fourth three wide into the turn, and like what seems to happen so often at Hollywood, when he made his move coming out of the turn he was forced nearly five wide which doesn't look bad ON the turn, but as the rail runners straighten out, all of the sudden he was four lengths behind, and his middle-move rally was negated.  He surged again and as they hit the final fifty yards it was a head-bobbing finish.  Even track announcer Vic Stauffer said "that may be a dead heat, no more than a quarter inch separating those two."  Yes, another PHOTO FINISH!  And like the first two the more I watched the replays I thought yes, no, then yes I think I've won.  The numbers came up......

Sigh, second, AGAIN!  At Calder I went with a 9/1 longshot - fifth, then in the Grade 2 True North I thought Caixa Electronica could defend his title with a big late run.  I debated about going with Bob Baffert's Fast Bullet who has immense talent and is lightly raced.  But when I looked his two big wins they both were in his second start off a layoff and both had come when moving from traditional dirt at Santa Anita to the cushion surface at Hollywood.  First off the layoff on traditional dirt - across the country in New York no less - I went with the locally based Todd Pletcher runner. He just didn't fire and Fast Bullet was an easy winner.  At Monmouth I was an even 4th with the tepid 5/2 favorite; at Arlington I went with the back class of Turallure - a former Grade 1 winner today in a listed stakes.  He made a big move on the turn at 9/2 and I was thinking of the $50+ payout and then he flattened through the lane to be fifth.  Doubled the bet on Antonacci who looked to scored as the speed of the race for trainer Wesley Ward and the hot apprentice rider.  When I circled him in the Form however I recalled how on Opening Day I'd backed this combination twice and gotten two less-than-inspiring rides.  Fourth at 8/5......sigh, again.  In the Calder stakes I had picked nearly all price plays as none of the favorites looked solid to me.  To my credit, all four of them WERE won by price horses......unfortunately only one of them was the horse I bet on.  But that came in the first of the quartet, the Unbridled Stakes.  I thought R Free Roll had the kind of pace figures that would take him not only to the lead, but to an easy lead.  I was dead-on as he was quickly clear by nearly five lengths.  But when the time of :21 and change was posted I thought he'd gone too fast.  Nope....he walked with it handily.  When I made the bet about eight minutes to post he'd been bet down to 5/2.  And from my vantage point on the rail, without my glasses, it looked like that was the price at post time.  But after he romped home as an easy winner - in stakes record time - and I walked in to check out the payout, I saw the odds were NINE-to-two.....and I'd hit a nice $11 winner.  So wishing I'd at least doubled the bet.  Still, my minimum play got back close to $30. 

It was only the third winner on the day for me as I turned to page two of my selection sheet.  SURELY, more winners are to come and I'm bound to have a big finish to get "my 30%" by the end of the day.  When I cashed this ticket it was 3:30 in the afternoon.  Over the span of the next TEN races, leading up to 5 pm I didn't cash a single ticket.  And I have to admit that as five o'clock approached and I looked at my next several bets, my "big" bets of the day I was actually concerned that I didn't have enough cash on hand to cover my planned investments unless I started cashing tickets!! 

Next up was the Grade 2 Charlie Whittingham at Hollywood.  I thought Slim Shadey was the best horse, but might be compromised as he does his best loose on the lead.....but I also agreed with Brad Free's analysis that he was simply the fastest horse.  Nope - tried to rate, it was obvious he was uncomfortable off the lead....5th.  A class dropper at Churchill with a hot-riding Corie Lanerie was a distant 6th.....In the Grade 1 Just A Game over the yielding Belmont turf I thought I had a real solid upset play in Euro import Laugh Out Loud.  He would be close to a moderate pace, had Hall of Fame rider Gary Stevens, and had run very well over soft Euro going.  At 15/1 in the program I knew I'd get a fair price.  And I was encouraged when Dave Liftin and two other DRF selectors listed him on top.  He pressed the pace at 6/1 to the top of the lane and looked poised to take over when he just stopped and faded to the back.  Calder....my 12/1 upset pick in the Leave Me Alone Stakes was the early betting favorite, floated back to a fair 4/1 and then was a distant 6th.  At Woodbine I liked Click in the Bold Ruckus Stakes.  This was a six panel turf sprint and while Click had never been on the grass he had the breeding and most of all he looked loose on an easy lead.  He was coasting on the lead and then was challenged inside the 1/8th pole, but he fought back in the final 100 yards to put his head in front when out of nowhere a closer came flying.....PHOTO FINISH!  Not nearly as close as the previous ones as I was pretty sure I had NOT won.....nope, second, AGAIN! 

On Opening Night at Churchill Downs the feature was the Grade 3 Derby Trial going a one-turn mile.  I had debated between two Todd Pletcher runners - Capo Bastone and Forty Tales.  The former was the most appealing since Forty Tales had disappointed me twice at Gulfstream.  Both rallied late with Forty Tales getting a slightly better trip and in a close finish I was second.  Well, today the Grade 2 Woody Stephens at seven furlongs looked to be a virtual replay.  And I wrote in my analysis of the race that it would probably once again come down to trip.  Because I'd liked Capo Bastone last time and because with the win Forty Tales - I thought - would be bet down I went with the longer priced Capo Bastone.  At post time they were both 8/1 and it was again Forty Tales that ran big - with the aforementioned Joel Rosario (AGAIN!) to pay over $19......sigh......more zigging when I should be sagging.  In the Issac Murphy Handicap at Arlington it was obvious to everyone that my selection, Algonquin Posse was the "easy winner."  Sent off at 3/5 he was a distant and never-threatening 7th.  WOW.......The upset pick at Calder in their U Can Do It Stakes for me was Givhans Ferry who I thought had a chance to steal it.  Instead another runner I've bet on in her last three wins shot to the front and while I dueled with her to the turn, she kept going, I didn't and she posted the $20 upset.  The streak of losers finally was snapped when I made the minimum bet on Srumdiddlyupmtious in Monmouth's Fort Monmouth Stakes.  It was slated for 5 1/2 furlongs on the grass, but like here they'd had a lot of rain and I thought she would love the main track.  She ROMPED as the 6/5 favorite.  Of course this was one of the few races where I bet the minimum.....zigging & sagging again. 

No worries as next up I had back-to-back "BEST" bets and I had a lot of confidence in both.  Daisy Devine looked to wire the Grade 3 Mint Julep, and could rate off the pace if need be.  She had finished 2nd in a Grade 1 and close third in a Grade 2 in her last two starts and looked just much the class of the field.  She surged to the front at the 1/8th pole and was edging clear when the second choice came absolutely flying down the middle of the course and blew right by her in the final 100 yards.  Really?  Second again?  Yes.  Moments later it was my "BEST" at Hollywood.  Declassify had earned a huge 101 Beyer in his debut, and like the earlier Hollywood race I wasn't going to be surprised with a slight regression.  But he'd been working lights out for Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert and he had the look of a future stakes star to me.  Right to the front and running easily.  As they hit the far turn the second choice was moving through along the rail and looked to shoot inside of Declassify.  The rider had to tap on the brakes, but it appeared to me that the horse just didn't want to try and squeeze by.  My initial reaction was "uh oh, objection coming" but then Declassify took off in the lane and won by ten plus widening lengths even drawing a comment from track announcer Vic Stauffer, "Wow, this is one good looking colt!"  That puts to bed any thoughts of objection as no one was a threat to beat this horse.  I even filmed my winning moment and highlighted my sheet and then.......

Seriously?  My oldest son Jeff called from Houston as he was playing some races.  He said, "What's up with that?  Even the announcers on TVG can't believe it!"  They kept running it over and over again and I was convinced with every angle that not only did Declassify run a straight course, but the horse on the rail simply didn't want to go through the seam.  But the more they looked at it I kept thinking....."With the way today's gone, they'll take him down."  Well surprise, surprise......

 

That win meant I had enough cash to make my "BIG" bet coming up.  Jackson Bend disappointed in his comeback in the Ponche Handicap.  I wasn't all that surprised, he'd been off for quite a while and was making his first start since coming out of retirement...but he loves the Calder strip (7/5-1-1) and I thought his natural ability would be enough to win.... evenly to be 5th.  And now was the big moment, my "BET of the Day."  In analyzing the Belmont stakes races I had written that Point of Entry in the Grade 1 Manhattan was my "Bet of the Day" and that I planned to invest $50 to win.  As I wrote in my analysis, I have NEVER been a fan of Point of Entry - even while he was racking up four straight Grade 1 wins last summer.  Why?  Because in all those wins he didn't beat anybody.  And in the really big race - the Grade 1 Breeders' Cup Turf - he was second.  Many thought it was the trip, but I just don't think he's as good as advertised.  So, then why is he the "Bet of the Day" today?  Because today's field is just like all those fields last summer......of the nine lining up in the gate to face him today, SEVEN have NEVER won a graded stakes; on has ONE Grade 3 win and the other has ONE Grade 2 win.  Conversely Point of Entry has FOUR Grade 1 wins.  His last four Beyers (107, 104, 105, 105) would take a career best to beat him; in his last start he beat Animal Kingdom at Gulfstream, and that guy came back to win the $6 million Dubai World Cup.  I thought Point of Entry laid over the field.  Heading out to the races I even considered doubling my planned bet to make it $100 to win.  My only concern was that Point of Entry had been entered to face Horse of the Year Wise Dan on Derby Day in the Grade 1 Woodford Reserve at Churchill - and I was ALL against him, all for Wise Dan (who did win) - but he scratched because of the soft turf.  With all the rain in New York I was curious if he'd run today......which I expected he would.  Prior to the race I read that his trainer, Hall of Fame conditioner Shug McGaughey, said that there wasn't a horse on the grounds training better than he was and he needed to run today.  Still, soft ground, off since March, giving anywhere from 5 to 11 pounds to his rivals AND I have never been a big fan?  But I was ready to go all in - but the way the day was going?  I looked at myself and said, "I know what I'm doing......my handicapping is spot on....he WILL win - stick with the plan!"  And not only did I, but I upped it to $75 to win.  He rated in fourth to the turn and then began his move.  At the furlong pole he collared the longshot leader, but was NOT swooping by like a big favorite (here's the "real" Point of Entry I thought - good enough to win, but NOT a dominating force).  And then on the outside he came another long shot with all the momentum.  Really? He's going to get run down I thought?  But no, he reached down and held them both at bay, actually edging clear!  He went off at better than 1-2 on the board and I cashed for nearly $120! 

My faith in my handicapping is renewed!  Even the gal I was betting with today when I asked for the $75 win ticket gave me "that look" and said, "Bring it in!"  When I cashed with her she gave me a smile and said "I'm glad you got that one!"  Like I've often said, I would prefer to make money and I want to hit my fair share of winners, but what gives me the biggest thrill is to make a "BEST BET" play and be proven right. 

It was no surprise that in the Belmont Stakes, the final leg of the Triple Crown, my pick faded to 12th.  I was "right" in my analysis in that I didn't think any of the "favorites" would win.  Ironically the winner was Palace Malice who I had picked in the Louisiana Derby (his worst career finish) and in the Blue Grass (at 7/1 he had the lead in deep stretch and was caught on the wire)....and he paid nearly $30.  And in the last play of the day Scarlett Strike again rallied from the back of the pack to JUST miss, second, having gone wide on the turn, just like in her last start.  Only seven wins from thirty-six plays - not going to make money that way.  But as you can tell from the journal - or better yet from the highlight video below - I was oh-so-close all day and saw some great races; AND cashed with the big money on the line.

Thursday June 6

The Right Win Pct. - No Profits

That about sums up the day...... I won a solid 32% of my picks, but fell short of a profitable day - I went 1-for-3 with my lone triple investments and both Brad Free's "Best" at Hollywood and Dave Liftin's "Best" at Belmont missed. I had planned on going out to the races today, but the weather has been awful with the remnants of a Tropical Storm bring deluges throughout the day.  And though today's weather was for the most part clear, I decided to play online.  The started strongly when Diamondesque proved much the best in my first selection, the second at Calder in a double investment.  Then after a credible fourth at 13/1 at Churchill I went against the favorite in my first selection at Belmont and Smokin Candy nailed the dueling favorites in deep stretch to pay a nice $6.60 when I again had doubled the bet. 

That was at 1:30 and I didn't cash another ticket until 4 pm!  During that sequence I ran 5th at even money at Churchill; 3rd at 2/5 at Belmont and 6th at 3/5 at Calder.  I also led all the way into the stretch at 2/1 at Calder and at a big 6/1 at Belmont.  So, I had my chances, but couldn't find the winner's circle. 

Finally in the finale at Calder, my "BEST" of the day at Calder I had a nice win.  The race was carded for the turf at 5 1/2 furlongs, but with all the rain I was certain it would come off the lawn, and it did.  I thought that 1a-Cameo Lady looked MUCH the best of the Team Calabrese entry as she was first-time Kirk Ziadie (a 42% win angle) and had Edgar Zayas riding today.....those two are winning together at a big 50%.  Sure enough, Cameo Lady dominated the race at better than even money and I cashed for over $30. 

Right back in the opener at Hollywood where Big Wag surged to the front at the furlong marker and edged clear at 6/5 and I thought I was on my way.  But then Jeter disappointed at 3/5 at Belmont.  He had Joel Rosario, a triple Beyer out of a dominating win which was a KEY race, but couldn't even hit the board, fourth.  No worries, as Wash Park scored for me at Churchill with a strong rally as the 9/5 favorite and my double investment - nearly $30 more in the bank. 

Two misses - Delaware turf and Belmont finale when 2nd at 4/1 - and cashed at Hollywood in a mile and a quarter optional claimer on the turf. with Miss Pippa.  I had two late bets at Hollywood and a win by either of them would provide me with a solid profit on the day.  But Cabage (Free's Best) was only second best and then in my "best" of the day out west Biorhythm rallied very wide into the lane, costing him multiple lengths.....fourth.  But, as I've often said, I would like nothing better than to make money at the races, but my focus is on picking winners and I'd had a good day of handicapping.  Looking forward to a big day Saturday on Belmont Stakes Day.

Saturday June 1 - A New Month

A Light Weekend Of Racing

This weekend was a lull in major racing around the country.  Next weekend is Belmont Stakes day so most of the eastern stables are pointing for the multiple graded stakes scheduled for that day and the following Saturday night is Stephen Foster night at "Downs After Dark" over the Churchill Downs surface - we'll be there! - and most Midwestern runners are pointing for one of those major stakes.  Not that I couldn't have found many opportunities to handicap, because they pay the same on a maiden claimer as they do on a major graded stakes......but I had promised the ladies at Cypress Bay High that I would help the set up the Bank United Center on the Miami University campus for Sunday's graduation.  I didn't know who was joining us for the morning's activities, but I can tell you I would have been truly excited had I known in advance that it would be just these hotties and me in the arena.  LOTS of eye-candy for me and I enjoyed every minute of it! 

But, I digress from the racing....... Penn National Race Course is a track I play maybe once a year only because they have racing under the lights and I typically have at least one day of marathon racing.  But this year their racing secretary and marketing department had a great plan - they initiated the "Penn Mile Night" program and put up $500K for the feature race and built six undercard stakes races.  The response was overwhelming with many big runners showing up and nearly all the east coast/Midwestern jockeys coming in for the night.  I handicapped the card and had a play in all seven stakes.  I added two selections from Belmont, where they had a series of state-bred stakes races on the card; had two races from the Churchill stakes card; and one play in the feature at Hollywood.  The results were three wins from ten selections - a very solid 30% - but like the same tune being played this summer, the management of the money left the bottom line for the first day of racing of June in the red. 

After spending the morning with "my girls" in Miami I stopped at Calder to make my bets and then headed home.  It looked like it would be a great day when in my first play of the day, the Bouwerie Stakes from Belmont my selection, Lovely Syn blew her rivals away.  The final furlong of the stretch she was geared down to a canter and still won by double-digit lengths.  Ultra-impressive! 

A half hour later it was time for the Affirmed Success Stakes going 6 1/2 furlongs over the Belmont main track.  Entered and listed as the morning line favorite was NY State-bred champion Saginaw.  He has literally owned the state-bred ranks in all races going one turn, and many wondered if he would be able to continue his winning ways after nearly being beaten in his last start.  I was NOT one of those doubters.  He's better at a one-turn mile or at seven panels, but he's proven himself over and over again to have the heart of a champion.  He made his move on the turn and was grinding away at the leader in the final furlong.  Briefly there was a question of him getting to the leader, but he proved he's all class but edging clear in the shadow of the wire and I was two-for-two to start the day! 

The weather in Louisville was wet and so my pick in the Opening Verse Stakes, scheduled for the turf, scratched when the race was moved to the main track.  But I still had my top selection in the Grade 3 Aristides.  Last season Rothko had been very impressive running away from the field, and he looked to do the same again here.  I wanted to know how Jill Byrne felt because I had picked him on name alone, and when I read he was her top pick I had a lot of confidence.  He set the pace to the sixteenth pole but gave way to finish third.  It was three hours later, at 6 pm when the Penn National card kicked off and I missed in the opener when Dorhy's Aurora faltered as the even-money favorite.  The second as the Pennsylvania's Governor's Cup, going five furlongs on the turf.  I had been initially drawn to the Penn card because I read that 20-time stakes winner Ben's Cat was running here.  But when I handicapped the race I did not like the fact he was drawn in post eleven nor did I like the fact that on of his poorest efforts had come in this race last year.  Those two factors made me think it was a good spot to look for an upset.  He was facing off with Todd Pletcher's Bridgetown and multiple graded stakes winner Chamberlain Bridge.....maybe one of those two wake up tonight?  But I was immediately drawn to the rail horse, former claimer Tightend Touchdown.  He had won two straight after a photo finish loss in his first start off the claim for trainer Jason Servis.  What impressed me first was that in these three starts for Servis, 'Touchdown had faced twenty horses through twelve points of call.  He had led ALL TWENTY of them through eleven of the twelve calls, finishing a neck back of ONE of them on the wire of the first.  He WOULD be on the lead. His pace calls also indicated that not only would he have the lead, but it looked to me he'd have a CLEAR lead....and at this short sprint distance that could be huge as the others would have to negotiate clean trips to run him down.  Finally, his last two races had earned Beyer figures BETTER than those being earned by the "stars" of the field.  In fact, if you go back to the bottom of favorite Ben's Cat's past performances, over a span of eleven turf sprints, he had a SINGLE number that would contest Tightend Touchdown.  At 8/1 in the program it was my UPSET SPECIAL!  As the gates sprung open 'Touchdown had been bet down to 3/1 but he immediately was clear on the lead.  By the time they hit the turn he was clear by three plus lengths and was running in hand for jockey Javier Castellano.  I knew I was home free.  It was a virtual certainty when on the turn a longshot bore out badly and carried both Chamberlain Bridge and Ben's Cat almost to the outer fence.....there would be no late runner to worry about!  Bridgetown was chasing through the lane, but he's not been at his career best and he settled for second best tonight.  The payoff was a nice $8.80 and I cashed for well over $40!  WHOOO HOOO! 

Unfortunately that proved to be the end of the winning tickets.  In the featured $500K Penn Mile I had made multiple stakes winner Noble Tune my "best" of the night.  He was four-for-five in his career, the lone loss being a second in the Breeders' Cup.  But when he turned from home his usual big kick was not there - he just ran flat through the lane and was off the board for the first time in his career.  Big disappointment.  Fifteen minutes later the Grade 2 Californian saw post-time favorite Liason run second as the even money favorite behind a runner who had been second behind top older handicap leader Game On Dude in both his last two starts.  I liked Liason, and like Rothko earlier, I had been encouraged that he was DRF's Brad Free's "best" of the day.  Candyman E should have been either on the lead or pressing the front end going five furlongs in the Penn Dash, but instead was last of five as the 4/5 favorite - only third on the wire.  I had one last chance to get close to even in the final race of the night in the second heat of the Penn Dash.  Manito was the 9/5 second choice and was dueling with the leaders turning for home.  It appeared to me that he was the only one of the three that was not being pushed to his maximum effort yet as heads turned for home and I felt pretty good about my chances.  Sure enough, at the 1/8th pole he began to pull away, but at the sixteenth pole he fell.  Sigh.......  We are less than two weeks away from our big summer adventure - off to Louisville for "Downs After Dark" and then on to Alaska!  My plans are to get a full day of racing in this week, probably Thursday, and then spend Saturday at the races for Belmont Stakes day.  I wish the timing was different because we'll have Kim's beautiful twin sister Karrie here for the weekend, but racing calls!

Monday May 27 - Memorial Day
Sweep Hollywood's Graded Stakes

DISAPPOINTING OVERALL

On a day where I really thought I'd cap what had been a good weekend with several big stakes scores turned into a very disappointing day when nearly every "best" did not run to expectations.  My first selection was at 1:05 and the second wasn't until 1:47, but I neglected to look closely at my sheet before heading out......the first was an "off the turf" only pick and skies were sunny and we were on the turf at Belmont.  So when I arrived a little past 12:30 I had nearly an hour to kill.  But, I have not been to the Calder Casino for a while so I enjoyed playing the John Wayne slots for a while - wish I could report a big score, but such was not the case.  As the racing began I had doubled the bet on Alura Michele on the turf in Churchill's third race.  She pressed the pace to the far turn but had nothing for the stretch drive.  Miss Montauk reported the same run on the Monmouth turf in my next;  Transplendid made it a trio of identical runs when he too took the overland pressing route over the Belmont sod and then hung through the lane.  I lost my fourth in a row under the Twin Spires when Dapper Dude was second best at 7/2. 

No worries, I thought, I have my BIG bets coming later and am certain to score and even out the winning percentages.  The second at Arlington saw me double the bet on Ann of the Dance - my only added investment of the day in Chicago.  She was a good finisher and had been third in a stakes last year over the Arlington synthetic surface at this one mile distance, so the nw1x allowance test was a big class drop for her.  But as they turned for home she had yet to run a step and was nearly ten lengths back of the long-time leader.  Still, I did have the thought that "stretch runners do very well here" and with that she found another gear.  As is often the case here the late runners seem to run as though they have a rocket pack on their back and she wove though traffic, was clear on the outside at the 16th pole and blew by to win by daylight!  WOW!  Finally a win and though she was the favorite, I'll take the nearly $20 payout. 

At Monmouth My Kinda Party was first-time 2-lifetime and added blinkers for a barn that wins a big 35% with those - no matter, a dull ninth at 2/1.  But I won back-to-back races to get back on track.  First at Arlington where Richesthunderinggal was sent out by Larry Rivelli with E.T. Baird on board.  Especially with front-runners those two are deadly.  And in spite of the closer-bias of the track and the extended seven furlong distance, she went wire to wire to score.  Sadly she was even money.  In the fifth at Belmont I had originally not liked anything that much.  But when I read the comments by DRF handicapper Dave Liftin, he liste Ornelia as his best of the the day.  While her Beyers were consistently better than her rivals, but the 7/1-4-1 record was the kind of record I typically avoid.  Still, I have found that when Dave Liftin lists a "best" he is highly accurate.  OK Dave, I'm on board I thought.  She blew by the field in the lane and scored at a more than fair $4.90 so I cashed for nearly $25, and I snapped my pic with a tribute to Mr. Liftin! 

What followed was a series of six races where I was second twice and third three times without cashing a single ticket.  Dimples was checked on the far turn at 2/1 and was third over the Monmouth inner turf course; Welter Weight was making his first start for Todd Pletcher - a very predictable win angle - and had last been seen last season running second to multiple stakes runner Bodemeister.  He was 6/1 when I bet him but was pounded down to 2/1 favoritism.  Then ran evenly from start to finish to be fourth.  At Churchill Downs Anahauc was my pick in a nw1x sprint.  There was a lot of speed to seemingly set up her big closing kick.  I wrote in my analysis that I was not fond of her five seconds from nine starts, but today it looked like she would run by them in spite of that record.  The race unfolded exactly as I had seen it, and in mid-stretch Anahauc was in full flight to the wire as she collared the surviving front-runner.  But in the final sixteenth it was obvious why she had five seconds on her resume - she looked her rival in the eye and apparently said, "no, no... you go ahead with it" and refused to go by.....second.  The 7th at Belmont was the first of four straight holiday graded stakes; it was the Grade 2 Sands Point for 3-year-old fillies on the turf.  Watsdachances was my pick and the favorite.  She was a multiple stakes winner, including a Grade 3 here last fall.  The problem turned out to be that there was no speed in the race and the front-runner just loped along to the head of the lane and when Watsdachances came with her run the leader had more left in the tank and as gone.  The day was best summed up by the next race - the 8th at Churchill Downs.  If I were honest with all the "best" bets of the day I'd admit that all of the others had some obstacle to overcome, but Blues and Silver was beyond a "BEST" bet.  The race was a starter allowance for runners who'd started for a $16K tag or less.  Two races back he'd run for a $15K tag and won handily as the odds-on favorite.  Prior to that he'd won for a $32K tag, a $25K tag and after that she'd won last out for a $40K tag.  A BIG class advantage.  Better yet, she was 6-for-8 on the turf and her last two races had earned Beyer speed figures better than any LIFETIME figure earned by any of his rivals.  And topping the win angles, he was claimed out of that $15K spot by one of the hottest trainer-owner connections - Michael Maker for Ken & Sarah Ramsey.  She had a pressing running style so she would not have to worry about being dueled into submission on the front end or a victim to the pace as a closer.  She was 1-9 for a long time and deserving of the favoritism.  But then when the gates opened, and she'd floated to a generous 1-2 odds, the rider instead of running just off the hip of the longshot leader, who'd broken just inside of him, decided to take back to nearly the rear of the field.  With no pressure on the leader and caught well back in the field Blues and Silver now WAS a victim to the pace.  He came with his run, but as they turned for home it was clear that the leader was long gone.  Sigh.....racing, there is NO SUCH THING as a SURE thing.  Minutes later where I thought I'd get some of my lost wager back at Hollywood Hard Rockin Girl did not run to her numbers, and the drop from maiden specials to maiden claiming could only net her a third place finish.  WOW. 

The second of the graded stakes at Belmont was up next and of the four it was the only one where I did NOT have a strong opinion of my selection.  I did have a strong opinion AGAINST the favorite and I saw this as a great chance to make a score on a price play.  My pick was Tiz Miz Sue who was the only filly/mare in the Grade 1 Ogden Phipps who had multiple triple Beyer speed figures.  She had trouble in her last to darken her form and I thought I'd have a fair price.  But with ten minutes to post she was the second choice at 2/1.  So much for a price!  But, by post time she'd floated up to better than 4/1 - so now I was intrigued.  The favorite did not run well, which came as no surprise to me and as they turned for home it was Tiz Miz Sue who was running best of all!  WHOOO HOOO at a $10.80 payoff!  I could only wish I'd at least doubled the bet, but was rewarded with nearly $30 return on my investment. 

Five straight disappointments, four of them BIG disappointments followed.  Holiday Soiree was the 4/5 favorite in the listed Red Cross Stakes at Monmouth.  She was dropping out of a third in the Grade 1 Humana Distaff, so this listed spot looked like easy pickin's for her.  She came with a big late run, but when they turned for home she flattened out - 3rd.  Missed at Churchill with a 5/1 price play.  Itallian Rules had won the AOC nw2x condition THREE times already and was a 6x winner at the distance.  Obvious choice in Hollywood's third race.  You guessed it - third at 6/5.  WOW.  Then it was time for my BEST of the Day.... the Grade 1 Acorn going a one-turn mile at Belmont for three-year-old fillies.  I was just mildly concerned that the top sprinter in the country for sophomore fillies, Kauai Katie might be stretching her distance limitations here, but she'd won with authority going seven furlongs.  She appeared to be the controlling speed from the rail and I had "issues" with the other top contenders.  But in spite of breaking sharply jockey John Velazquez did not go to the front.  While it is true a longshot gunned to the front, JR didn't even challenge for it.  I could sort of follow the logic that going the one mile distance he didn't want to engage in a speed duel, but by dropping back into mid-pack he'd taken Katie out of her element....I knew the chances of winning from off the pace were slim, and I was right - third at 8/5.  Disappointing.  It was with a wry smile that I noted the winner was ridden by Rosie Napravnik who had been Kauai Katie's regular rider until two races back....sweet justice.  Right back with my "best" at Monmouth where Bella Castini looked much the best in Monmouth's co-featured Little Silver Stakes.  But on the turn when she was skimming along the rail she had to check.  I don't think she'd have gotten to the leader anyway.  Wow, again. 

Finally some good news.  In the 4th at Hollywood it was the first of their two graded events, the Grade 3 Los Angeles.  Bob Baffert's very lightly raced Fast Bullet looked to be a speed threat.  Off of only two lifetime starts and nearly a year layoff he'd been entered into last fall's Grade 1 Breeders' Cup Sprint.  He'd pressed the pace for half before folding up.  But had come back a month later with a huge 109 Beyer to win a nw2x allowance.  If nothing else he looked to compromise any other front-runner.  But I thought my pick, Comma to the Top, was simply the best horse.  He could out sprint Fast Bullet to the front and continue on to the wire, especially at six furlongs.  So my plan was to double the bet.  But then it was announced that Fast Bullet was scratched.  Suddenly Comma to the Top was not only an added money investment, he became the BEST of the Day at Hollywood as what appeared to be the lone speed.  Just as expected, right to the front and L - O - N - G gone.  Even though he failed to switch leads through the stretch and was running on a "tired leg" he was still open lengths clear, motored down on the wire!  I'll take my winnings and rejoice in FINALLY being right today! 

One more race before leaving, the feature at Churchill Downs - the Grade 3 Winning Colors.  Late this spring I'd read an article about Judy the Beauty making her return to the races at Keeneland.  Her trainer and owner, Wesley Ward said they were targeting the Breeders' Cup.  She won for fun that day and with those remarks in mind I saw this spot as a good step towards that year-end goal.  She came running from just off the pace to challenge at the sixteenth pole, but could not get by - second.  Sigh...... I made my last three bets and headed home for a Memorial Day hotdog on the grill with my sweetie and to watch the replays later. 

The first of those was in the featured Grade 1 at Belmont, the Met Mile.  In the prep for this race, the one-turn mile Grade 3 Westchester I had gone against "horse-for-the-course" Flat Out who was unbeaten at Belmont and went with the lightly raced Cross Traffic.  It was a terrific race and a photo finish that day, but Flat Out proved his affinity for the surface.  Today both were entered back, but unlike the Westchester where there wasn't anyone to press Cross Traffic, today there was plenty of speed to set the table for Flat Out.  I know when to admit I was wrong, so I took him today as a prime-time investment because I KNEW many would ignore his record today as I had last time out.  Sure enough he was a juicy 5/2 when they left the gate.  Flat Out was checked on the far turn, stopping him momentum and maybe, MAYBE that cost him the race, but I don't think he would have won.  Cross Traffic got clear late and looked to be on his way to a Grade 1 win in just his fourth start but he was nailed on the final head bob in another great finish.  In the second of the three late bets Super Ability had wired the Grey Memo Stakes in his last, and because that was a state-bred stakes he was eligible for today's open nw1x allowance test.  He looked to be the main speed and long gone again.  He was Brad Free's "best" bet as well.  The gates sprung open and a 30-1 longshot quarter-horsed to the front.  Super Ability sat just off the leader and looked in a perfect position.  A late runner ran by them both on the turn and Super Ability was all out just to get second.  WOW.....just how many disappointments could there be today? 

The final race of the extended weekend proved to be the very BEST race of the weekend.  It was Hollywood's feature, the Grade 1 Gamely for older fillies & mares going 1 1/8 miles over the turf.  One of my very favorite turf runners, Lady of Shamrock was running and when I'd read she was in today she had been my initial choice.  But then I later read in the days approaching the races that Marketing Mix was also entered.  She had been a big winner for me a couple of times last year and was coming off a close second in the Grade 1 Breeders' Cup last November.  Two others figured prominently, Tiz Flirtatious who was coming off a convincing win in the Grade 2 Santa Ana and Halo Dolly who looked to have a pace advantage over the other three.  The race itself lived up to it's billing, but made it even more so to me was the back stories........

First, Lady of Shamrock.  She had dominated the sophomore turf events on the west coast last season and had been compromised in her 4-year-old debut by a slow pace.  In her second start of 2013 she was again compromised but laid closer to the front and was making a winning move when checked on the rail by the front-runner.  She was put up to first - as my top pick - but both races had earned less than inspiring Beyer figures.  Would she get a pace set-up today?  Did the low numbers indicate that she wasn't quite as good against older?  Second, Tiz Flirtatious......She was a top state-bred turf star and had run second twice with three wins in her last five turf starts.  She had beaten Lady of Shamrock in the Gr 2 Santa Ana in her latest, but had benefitted as a pace-presser and the fact that Lady of Shamrock was also coming off a layoff.  BUT, with untrustworthy Julien Leparoux on board, I would not be betting her.  Third, Halo Dolly.  She was a NINE-time winner on the turf, and 2-for-2 here at Hollywood.  She looked to be right up on the lead, if not THE leader.  And with big-money rider Garrett Gomez she would be very dangerous at a price.  Finally, Marketing Mix.  In her last ELEVEN races she'd only been out of the exacta one time - and that one time was on Kentucky Derby Day last spring when she was MY TOP CHOCE!  Now on that fact alone I was hesitant to make her my pick.  But her last three Beyer speed figures were ALL better than the LIFETIME best figures of every other filly & mare in here.  Still, she had not run since the Breeders' Cup on the first weekend of November.....could she run big today off that kind of layoff?  Well my logic was that she had been entered for the Grade 2 Churchill Downs Distaff Mile on Derby Day so I thought she'd already been prepped for a big race, so technically she was not being readied for her first start; and secondly she had recently un-retired Hall of Fame rider Gary Stevens in the saddle.  I thought he'd have her perfectly placed with every chance to win.  This morning I wavered briefly on my analysis and selection of Marketing Mix when I read that Lady of Shamrock's trainer John Sadler had said she'd never have to be a victim to the pace again as her owners would be sending out a "rabbit" to the race to ensure a good pace.  Hmmmm, but in the end I thought that while this would aid her, she would have to (a) prove she could be better as a 4yo and (b) have to run a career number to beat one of Marketing Mix's "average" races. 

The race unfolded just as I thought, and when they lined up across the course turning for home I knew "it was ON!"  I was a bit surprised that Lady of Shamrock wasn't just flying on the outside to make it three across the track at the sixteenth pole, but Tiz Flirtatious and Marketing Mix laid it down through the final one hundred yards.....PHOTO FINISH!  Check it out.....

 

I thought, in spite of Vic Stauffer's call that Marketing Mix was the winner.....I thought so live and on both replays.  In fact I didn't think it was as close as he, or the TVG announcers said it was.  And I was right.  It provided some salvation to the day that I'd won with a triple investment, I was RIGHT on a "best" bet, and that it had unfolded as I had expected and was a great race as expected....with me winning :) 

For the weekend I had analyzed nearly 175 races; made selections in nearly eighty of them and had nailed TWENTY-SIX WINNERS!  That works out to a big 32.9% win percentage; and that my friends is good handicapping no matter how you cut it.  As I've often said, the secret to winning at the races is not only being a good handicapper, which is obviously very important, but it's in how you manage your money. This weekend, and on this day, my money management had not been as "on" as my winning selections.  Next weekend we turn the page to the third month of the summer season as June rolls around.  The month will provide the first of two BIG highlights as we will be at Churchill Downs on June 15th for "Downs After Dark" on Grade 1 Stephen Foster night - and will in all likelihood see superstar Royal Delta in the Grade 2 Fleur de Lis Stakes.

Saturday May 25

Memorial Day Weekend Part 2

ANOTHER ELEVEN WIN DAY!

It was another excellent day of handicapping, and I was MOST pleased to cash two big tickets on my "BET of the DAY" selections!  I was sad to read in the paper that with the impending head-to-head dates conflict with Gufstream many "insiders" think Calder may close.  I would really hate to see that, but it's sure not a good sign that for the first time in the history of the track they won't have a live Memorial Day card - in fact today's feature is the Memorial Day Handicap, but because it's being run today it's simply the "Memorial Handicap."  And this picture of the grandstand as post time approached on a holiday/Saturday card tells the whole story......

But let's start at the beginning of the day.  I saw on the weather forecast that most of the northeast was going to have a lot of rain so I anticipated a lot of "off-the-turf" races and scratches.  I had over forty selections from seven tracks for today, but didn't know how many would fall victim to the weather.  As it turned out I lost seven picks to the weather, and most of them were in the first 1/3 of the day.  But I had back-to-back double investments to kick off the action. The first was at Churchill Downs where Denali Holy Bull looked to be odds-on for sure.  He had tons of back class, was being dropped from high level claiming events to the very bottom of the ladder, but had been claimed by the trainer for himself, so I figured he wanted the win and if the horse got claimed it was a double pay day.  Denali romped under a hand ride to the wire.  Didn't pay much, but I cashed for nearly $15 and I'm off to a winning start!  I came right back and Calder with what looked t be an obvious winner, but Loveyouallthetime was only second best as he could not run down the loose-on-the-lead front runner.  At Woodbine I doubled the bet on a first time starter in a 2-year-old maiden race, only to see him blow the break and spot the field about five lengths.....sigh.  And then I was second again with and entry (actually ran 2nd - 3rd) at Belmont on their sloppy main track.  FINALLY back in the winner circle in Calder's 4th.  In a wonderful turn of events we were actually ON the turf today.  My original selection had been to double the bet if the race came off the turf, but to go in for a minimum if it stayed on the grass.  With the race staying on the turf my selection, Starship Wildcat, was being bet down to odds-on.  I liked him a lot because his speed figures towered over everyone else's, but his turf races were in five furlong sprints and he'd never gone two turns - today it was a 7 1/2 furlong event.  But with Tomlinson figures saying he could handle the distance and the heaving betting action I decided to up the bet.  Sometimes I'm so smart I could just jump back and kiss myself :)  His odds floated up to 6/5 and he walked with the race on the front end.....easy-peasy-pie!  I celebrated joyously! 

I had the lead at a nice 7/2 in my next at Churchill Downs, but Billybillwillywill could not hold off the favorite - second, again.  My next was a triple investment at Monmouth, where it was also raining, felt so bad for them:  two weeks ago on Opening Day it poured, and today is the big kickoff to Memorial Day weekend (a huge weekend for tourism on the Jersey Shore) and it was pouring (and cold) today.  But it didn't both my selection Pro Prospect who went right to the front and drew off with every stride.  Just WALKED with it and I cashed for over $25.  After an excellent third at 7/1 at Woodbine I rattled off three straight wins!  The first came at Belmont when Love to Run was allowed to go off at a juicy 3/1 and he drew away from the favorite handily - paid $8.40 and I got back over $20; the second was at Churchill where Future Prospect also went off at 3/1 and also drew clear of the favorite - though he had to hold on to win over a late-running longshot.  The even better $8.80 led to another $20+ payout.  And I topped the trifecta of wins when Richies Sweetheart went wire-to-wire at Arlington as a first-time starting two-year-old for top juvenile trainer Larry Rivelli.  So I'm off to another quick start, like Thursday, having won six of my first eleven.  Reality set in over the next two plus hours however........

I was a late-running, very close third in a Calder turf race, disappointing third on the turf at Arlington, then a huge disappointment when Strut the Course was only 4th in the Lady Angela Stakes at Woodbine where not only did she look good to me, but was Jim Bannon's "BEST" of the day.  I swooped to the lead in Calder's 7th with Richard Croy only to see him stop on a dime to finish 8th then Western Tease looked to wire the 7th at Churchill, only to break five lengths behind the field....9th.  At Monmouth I was right there on the turn at 9/5, but couldn't gain any ground, third and then Canadian three-year-old turf filly of the year was second best in the Grade 2 Nassau at Woodbine.  Back-to-back off the board finishes at 5/1 led me to the last loss in the streak, and it was truly "one that got away."  The Grade 2 Sheepshead Bay was still on the very soggy turf at Belmont.  And I had taken that into account when I selected Strathnaver to win.  As they were in the paddock I looked over the runners again and re-read Dave Liftin's analysis.  A horse that really intrigued me was Tannery, who Liftin had commented about, "...the more boggy the turf the better for this guy....."  He was on the board at double-digit odds and just had the look of a runner who would definitely appreciate the 1 3/8 mile distance over soft grass.  My pick SHOULD run well, but had not proven it yet.  I debated back and forth and finally stuck with my original pick.  Bad move.....I was 6th seemingly unable to get any traction on the yielding ground while Tannery relished the off going and scored at better than 10-1....sigh. 

I know I've written it several times over the last several racing seasons, but one thing I am most proud about my handicapping is that I am very confident that I know when I'm right and do not let streaks of races that do not produce winners impact my decision making.  So, my next two decisions are excellent examples of this.  In the Calder feature, the Memorial Day Handicap (I'm still going to call it that!) I thought Csaba looked much the best in spite of coming off a layoff.  He had won a small stakes here and then just missed last August in an off-the-turf Grade 2 at Saratoga, so I'd tabbed him in the Pennsylvania Derby, when I was in Philadelphia in September, only to see him run poorly.  Off that race I dismissed him several times as he rattled off several stakes wins, including two graded stakes at Gulfstream.  His last race had been in the Grade 1 Donn.  So today's field were really soft IF he were ready to run.  The comments in the Form from his connections seemed to tell me they were expecting a big effort, so I planned to go "prime time" on him.  But as the race approached I thought - IN SPITE OF THE RUN OF WINLESS RACES and the "should have" miss at 10/1 at Belmont - I should up the bet on him.  I re-examined the past performances and I did - I upped it to a $30 WIN bet.  I thought he'd go wire to wire, but when a longshot "quarter-horsed" to the lead, my rider Manny Cruz smartly let him have the lead, eased to his outside and tracked him to the far turn.  When the real running began he drew clear as TONS the best!  I WIN!  Good move Mr. Mark. 

Well, that's only half the story.......post time for the Memorial Day Handicap was 4:53 and post time for what was my "BET of the DAY," the Grade 2 American Handicap from Hollywood Park was at 5:01.  But as the previous races concluded at Calder and Hollywood their anticipated post times were a minute apart.  So as I was considering upping the bet at Calder I was simultaneously considering the same move at Hollywood.  Here my choice was Obviously who had been sensational last summer in wiring back-to-back graded turf mile events in just absurdly fast times.  His fractions had been wicked and in both events he'd been all-out to hold off the closers, but he was one fast dude.  His comeback race a month ago had seen him sprint down the hill at Santa Anita - not his best distance, but I thought with his high cruising speed he fit.  He was only second best that day, so I anticipated a big move forward on the stretch to a mile today.  And so he was my "BET of the DAY."  But my plan was to only go "prime time" on him because there was at least one if not two others that would want the lead and could compromise his chances.  I still thought he was simply the best horse, but didn't - originally - want to go "all in" with my investment because of the pace scenario.  But as I was making the decision about Csaba I thought I should go $30 to win on BOTH of them.  Before heading to the window I re-read the comments from Obviously's trainer and jockey.  They seemed exceptionally confident.  I thought to myself that he truly would run away from this field, even if the other front runners wanted to press the issue.  I decided to up the bet....but to $50 TO WIN!  I headed out to the rail to watch Csaba run live as Obviously was heading to the gate at Hollywood.  As Csaba crossed the wire I boogied inside quickly to the simulcast window and they were hitting the far turn with Obviously in front by three AND best of all, the pace was not nearly as fast as he normally runs.  The first thing I heard was track announcer Vic Stauffer call ".....and Obviously is loose on an easy lead turning for home....."  I knew I was in!  WHOOO HOOOO! 

When I watched the replay later three factors led to his big win.  First, he was the inside speed, which I had anticipated.  Second, the closest front running longshot broke swiftly, but was taken back off the pace before they hit the first turn.....why?  I guess he figured it was his best chance to get second money; and third the other front running wannabe was wide, so as he got into gear they were hitting the first turn and he had not chance to challenge the high cruising Obviously on the lead at this point.  I rejoiced with my DOUBLE BEST BET wins before heading home for dinner and to watch the last several races on replay. 

Of the last ten selections on my sheet I scored with two of the first three.  Power Phil was a handy winner in the finale at Woodbine - I doubled the investment and cleared over $25.  And Saw Ow was my choice to rally in a Hollywood maiden special event.  But when the favorite left the rail open down the backside my rider took advantage and took them all the way to the wire.  He paid a nice $8.60 and my ticket is worth over $20 - again!  My best at Monmouth Buffum fulfilled my worst fears - he looked to be a one-turn sprinter, and he had nothing for the stretch as he tried two turns for the first time; Brad Free's "best" at Hollywood, Midnight Crooner was 2nd best at Hollywood.  I was 4th in Arlington's Grade 3 Hanshin Cup and then I really thought I was going to get my big pay day when my "Upset of the Day," Indian Classic went off at 6/1 and just missed at Hollywood....second, again.  I was a very close, but disappointing fifth in the last of three Grade 3's at Arlington with Procurement - tripled the bet.  And so after all these races and wagers, the bottom line for the day came down to the final race.  I was very pleased with the day regardless - I'd hit for well over 30% of my picks and had cashed on my "BET of the DAY" selections.  It was the 8th at Hollywood, an optional claimer on the turf.  I liked Vagabond Shoes who was 6/1 in the program but had lured top rider Rafael Bejarano.  As they came out of the turn heading for home he had dead aim on the favorite......PHOTO FINISH! 

It couldn't have been any closer......and at 3/1 I would have collected over $20, and it would have been a $10+ winning day; instead I lost $9.50....but had a GREAT day!  Looking to continue my winning ways Monday when I'll play four tracks nationally at Calder's simulcast center......one last look at the two big winners on the day: