Opening Night At Churchill Downs!

Saturday April 27

It was a good day and night of racing, packed with all the thrills of thoroughbred racing that makes me so addicted to the sport!  The first "dilemma" of the day came in how to spend the day.....first post for the Churchill "Downs After Dark" card wasn't until 6 pm.  So that meant either I would go to the races for the first half of my day and come home to watch the latter half, or the reverse.  I considered staying home for the entire day, but with Kim having beach plans I knew I'd be bored just sitting around the house on the computer and/or watching tv.  Once I had determined I would spend the first part of the day at Calder the next "issue" was that with two of the four tracks I'd handicapped having late starts I looked to have a lot of "down time" in between races.  As I mentioned in the Friday journal, that wasn't an issue because I was handicapping in between races.  So, after looking over my selection sheet I decided that the breaks were not so bad that I couldn't overcome them, with one exception.  My first selection was at 12:50 in Belmont's opener, and I didn't have another pick until the 4th at Calder at nearly 2:15 pm.  So I made the first play online, watched (ran fourth at 8/5 - booo) and then headed out. 

When I arrived and went to make my first bet with one of my "lady friends" / teller she asked if I was going to the Derby on Saturday - since I had a Kentucky Derby shirt on.  As I was telling her about last year's experience over the Oaks-Derby weekend I felt a pat on my shoulder.  It was my friend Anthony who I know from the little magazine store where I buy the Daily Racing Form.  He owns a few horses and they are trained by my former student, now top jockey Rosemary Hoemeister's mom.  We exchanged business cards and became Facebook friends.  That was cool.  He asked me if I had any "good" picks for today.  I told him my "BEST" of the day for Calder was in the fifth.  This was also the first of seven picks I'd posted for all my Facebook friends.  I lost the first bet, at Calder, where Rough'n Royal did not make the lead as I had hoped.  Then I doubled the bet on Girl of The Rain at Belmont.  She was a Euro import racing first time in North America for Graham Motion - a 42% win angle, and she looked to be the lone speed, AND she was the only multiple winner in the field.  She was indeed loose on the lead at a big 5/1 price and the pace was absurdly slow.....I was counting my money for sure!  They hit the far turn and when the stalkers began to ramp up the pressure, 'Girl had no response and quickly retreated to the back of the field.  Wow.  The next was my "BEST" at Calder....it was an allowance race on the turf and my choice was Celestial Kitten.  On the upside she was out of the powerful Team Calabrese stable and had paired speed figures - nearly always a sign of an impending big move forward.  On the downside she was a discouraging 2-for-20 over the turf - YIKES!  But, I reasoned, this was the weakest field she'd seen in a long time, if not ever.  When the field hit the far turn she was in full flight for the leaders.  She inhaled them and was ahead by at least half a dozen lengths when she ran by me - won by daylight!  WHOOO HOOO! 

 

I thought, "here we go!"  The 5th at Belmont saw my pick, Iron Lou go off as the second choice at 5/2 and run dead last.....wow.  Then HUGE disappointments in back-to-back races.  The 6th at Belmont was one of "those" races I wish I'd gone with my gut reaction.  When I opened the DRF to the race on Friday the first thing that jumped off the page was there was a first-time starter for Todd Pletcher in a 3yo Maiden race.  He's just DEADLY with those at Gulfstream.  But, hold on a tick, this is Belmont and most of his "good ones" already have debuted, right?  Sill, he looks like a nice selection.  Then I scanned down to the #9 horse, Distorted Dream, and he'd actually WON a race, then was DQ'd, came back and ran even faster when getting nipped in the shadow of the wire.  Hmmmm.  I checked out Dave Liftin's analysis and he not only picked 'Dream, but wrote how BOTH of his last two races were "above par" on the Beyer figure AND that he had back-to-back bullet works.  Combine this with my second thoughts on the Pletcher runner and I made him my "Belmont Best."  As the betting opened on the race the Pletcher horse was the heavy favorite - though he was NOT in the program.  Early and heavy betting on a first-time starter is almost always a dead giveaway that this horse is talented.  Uh oh.  And what about my pick?  He was 7/2 at the time - a HUGE overlay.  I looked at them both again and watched the betting for about ten minutes.  Then, again in spite of my misgivings I went with my selection.  The gate sprung open and quickly I was in front by three.  Looked long gone until mid-stretch and then, well you can guess.  Caught in a photo finish, but I knew I'd lost.  Sigh......AND to make it even worse this was my second Facebook pick :(  Within minutes I was on track to watch the 7th at Calder where I had tripled the bet on another Calabrese runner, Winner's Secret.  I thought he'd steal it, but instead it was a race-long speed duel and he gave way in the final fifty yards.  Oh my.....is this how the day is going to play out?  I started thinking about how last spring during my Churchill Downs Handicapping Project how difficult it was to win there, especially the last month or so.  A bad first half of the day and THEN the Churchill card?  "Calm down Mr. Marky Mark" I said to myself.....let's just see where the day takes us.  And indeed my inner handicapping self was so right.  In the next race at Calder I had selected Lots of Mazel, at 5/2 in the program because he looked like the lone speed in this maiden claiming event.  Much to my chagrin he was bet down to a miserly 1-5!  WAY over bet, but I only had the minimum on him and I would be happy just to cash any ticket at this point!  And then he didn't make the lead!  It was a duel the length of the stretch, and a PHOTO FINISH!  I'm on the inside......

I was very unsure of the result and people around me were commenting they were "sure" on both horses!  Finally the results were on the board.....I'd won!  I cashed by $5 investment and got back a huge ONE DOLLAR profit!  LOL.  I quickly went inside and they were hitting the far turn in my first bet from Hollywood where it is Gold Rush Day, and my pick Hail Mary was the favorite in the Warren's Thoroughbred Stakes.  She proved a handy winner, but again at the miserly price of 1/5.  At least I made an even bigger THREE dollar profit on this one :)

And in the very next race - at Belmont - I won AGAIN!  And this time with a nice priced horse when Longhunter rallied to score at a very fine $6.20, getting me back over $15.  I missed minutes later at 10/1 in the second at Hollywood and then had one more race before heading home - the feature at Belmont, the Grade 3 Westchester.  It was the second race of the day where I would take it back if I could.  When I'd first looked at the race I was drawn to veteran Grade 1 winner Flat Out.  He's only won three times in the last two years and ALL of them were at Belmont where he's unbeaten.  Just like last year, his form looked off and it would be a good time to jump on at a fair price.  Then I saw Cross Traffic who was a lightly raced Pletcher runner.  Still, I thought Flat Out was the play.  Then as I looked at the field it was apparent that Cross Traffic was the LONE speed of the race and if he ran anything at all like he did in his last at Gulfstream he not only would be on the lead, but would be double digits in front of the field when they turned for home.  Flat Out had never seen a pace like this at a one-turn mile and his best races were two turns at a much farther distance.  So I changed to Cross Traffic.  He was loose on the lead and when they turned for home I was surprised that Flat Out was coming to him.....in spite of the wicked splits Cross Traffic had set.  It was a memorable stretch duel and was only decided in the last two jumps where I was second, again.....sigh...... 

I headed for home and when I got home I turned on HRTV to watch the two races I'd missed while driving home.  In the Melair Stakes at Hollywood I went with the front-runner from Bob Baffert's barn, Sweet Marini.  She was a "sweet" 3/1 and led to the final 100 yards before being nailed by the favorite, second AGAIN!  The next race was the feature at Calder.  Again I was torn.  City of Weston had won two in a row, both times I'd been on the front runner who he ran down, and both times I didn't think he was good enough.  Today he faced Brave Dave who was a VERY fast front-runner and a multiple stakes winner.  The problem for 'Dave today was that he looked to have pace pressure AND he was coming off a long layoff.  Both of these factors would make him vulnerable to a late runner, like City of Weston.  I considered that perhaps Brave Dave could sneak away from the other speed, but when I counted them up, EIGHT of the ten runners signed on wanted the lead.  Even if one or two took back and/or were scratched there figured to be a lot of pressure.  The race unfolded just as I had anticipated.....it was a three-way speed duel to the far turn before Brave Dave emerged with the lead.  The fractions were VERY fast and as he cleared off City of Weston was winding up from the back of the pack.  By midstretch it was clear that I had the momentum an the only issue was if there was enough ground for me to get there in time.  CAUGHT HIM!  And cruised by in the final 100 yards.....whooo hoooo!  And the best part was Brave Dave had been the odds-on favorite with City of Weston a juicy 5/2.  I got back nearly $40 on my play! 

 

It was now getting close to post time for Opening Night at Churchill Downs where I had eight selections on the card, three of which were "best" picks I'd listed on Facebook.  The first of these was in the opener.  I really liked Wine Princess.  She was unbeaten at the distance and the only time she'd ever lost on the main track had been in the Indiana Oaks to multiple graded stakes winner Grace Hall.  She was coming off a layoff, but had very sharp works and had already won over the track.  No surprise she was hammered at the windows and for a while she was 1-5 - again?  But finally, in spite of it being a short four horse field the odds drifted to a very generous 1-2.  Right out of the gate she was NOT tracking the dueling leaders, but was nearly ten lengths back.  Uh oh.  Maybe it's a speed duel?  No, the fractions were not suicidal....this isn't good.  But then I thought, sometimes it isn't necessarily the quickness of the pace duel, but simply the pressure of someone dueling with you....and as they approached the turn Wine Princess was underway.  By the time they were into the turn she'd closed to gap to about 2 1/2 lengths, and then as they straightened for the wire she accelerated.  In just a few jumps she caught the pace survivor and then drew off under a hand ride.......whooo hooo (again!). 

I had two bets in two late stake races at Hollywood where both scratched, one of which was my "BEST" at Hollywood (and a Facebook pick), so my next race was the third at Churchill.  The Last Meow went off at 3/1 and set the pace into the lane, but was run down, third.  The 7th at Hollywood I had the lone speed on the turf, but tonight two other longshots decided they would show speed....Diamondsdiplomat won the battle, but weakend late to the closers late punch, 4th.  Next up was the race that I got the most satisfaction out of....it was the 4th at Churchill Downs.  One thing I've learned over the years, specific to Churchill, is that their online handicapper, Jill Byrne, is THE BEST of the public handicappers.  I have so much respect for her analysis that if my horse is not her top pick I double-check my analysis.  And if my pick is not in her top three then I have serious reservations.  Well, for tonight of the eight races where I had selections we agreed on five of them; two of the three we did not agree on I had minimum plays on.  But in this race I really liked Delightful Music.  I thought you could "open the window" as handicappers say, all the way back to last year to project how she would run tonight... multiple excuses in all the races since that placing in a stakes race.  I liked the fct that the jockey was a 27% winner for the barn as well.  And I liked the fact she was 3/1 in the program, not the favorite.  BUT....she was not in Jill's top three!  I checked, re-checked, and re-checked again.  It's one thing to not agree with her pick, but to going in on a triple investment?  Was I that confident?  I WAS!  As they turned for home Delightful Music made her move and drew off with authority!  YAHOOO!  Even better, she was a nice 2/1 price and paid $6.00 meaning I got back nearly $50!  Yay me! 

Next should have been my "best" at Hollywood, but she scratched.  So I waited until the 5th at Churchill Downs and in this Maiden Claiming event my pick Pretty Lil' Kate was my "BET of the Night!"  Just another example of what's cool about handicapping - your "best" does not have to be a graded stakes and/or feature race....they pay the same on all races where you have the winning ticket!  Pretty Lil' Kate had a 22 point Beyer speed figure advantage over her nearest rival and was being sent out by a barn that wins with nearly 30% of their second time starters.  However......two things concerned me - first, a one-race speed figure is not nearly as reliable multiple race figures which show consistent ability.  And the other thing occurred when they left the gate.  Through the first four races ALL the winners had come from off the pace - and had even been noted on air by the HRTV analysts.  But right out of the gate jockey Rosie Napravnik took 'Kate to the front.  Hmmmm.  Well, this is the first route race, so this could be different.  But as they moved down the backside she was not alone on the lead.  Pressured all the way, this isn't good.  They turned for home and the stretch duel commenced.  The odds are certainly against 'Kate holding on after the pressure and the apparent bias of the track tonight.  But in the final 100 yards Rosie would not let her loose and while it was officially a photo finish I was nearly certain I'd won.  The numbers came up and YES!  I'd won again! 

Three wins on the Churchill card - even if that would be it for the evening I'd be satisfied.....but I had one more "best" to go!  I was a late running 3rd in the featured Snow Chief at Hollywood Park, then missed in both the 7th and 8th at Churchill.  Finally in the ninth I had an the last of my added money investments.  Horned Frog was the pick.  The last four times he'd run on dirt he'd earned Beyer speed figures in the mid-80s, as good or better than what his rivals could run on their best day.  Even better, those last four dirt efforts had produced THREE wins and a photo-finish second.  He was 2-for-3 over the Churchill Downs strip and clinching the deal --> he was trained by Michael Maker and ridden tonight by Joel Rosario who had both set track records at Keeneland, which closed yesterday.  Horned Frog swooped to the lead as they turned for home and fought to the wire with another rival, but much like Pretty Lil' Kate, even though it was tight on the wire I was pretty certain I'd won.....and when the numbers came up on the tote board, I had indeed! 

Horned Frog was my FOURTH Churchill winner and was the fifth Facebook winner!  In fact of the seven picks I posted on Facebook, I had one scratch, leaving six runners which produced FIVE WINS and a photo-finish second! 

One race left on the selection sheet, the feature at Churchill, the Grade 3 Derby Trial.  There were multiple front-runners.  It appeared to me to be a real set-up for a closer.  Todd Pletcher had two in here, one of which was Capo Bastone.  He had been highly regarded as a two-year-old and had run a good third in the Grade 1 Breeders' Cup Juvenile around two turns.  He had been transferred from his California trainer, John Sadler, to Todd Pletcher after that and he'd won first time out at Gulfstream (when I had him); then had failed to fire over the synthetic in a Derby prep three weeks ago.  I liked the turnback to a one-turn mile here; I liked his late running style; and I most liked that tonight Garrett Gomez was riding because in Capo Bastone's late-running win at Del Mar in his debut (when I had him then as well!), the jockey had been....wait for it.........Garrett Gomez!  He was allowed to go off at a nice 9/2 and there was an intense speed duel.  They hit the far turn and Gomez asked him to run.  Capo Bastone was gobbling up ground and picking off horses as they swung out of the turn and by mid-stretch he was three back of the horse who had emerged on the lead - the OTHER Pletcher horse....who was on board  Rosario!  I was flying but just ran out of ground to be a second.  That would have been nice.  Still for the day, after the slow start I had finished with a rush and picked 9 winners from 24 selections - a huge 37% win rate.  And I lost just a couple dollars.  Any of those four seconds would have put me over the top, but in particular had I stuck with my original thought on the two Belmont races or the two photo finishes in the two Grade 3 races (Belmont's Westchester and Churchill's Derby Trial) I would have made a profit on the day.

But it was a great day of excitement and when I go back out to the track to cash my late race tickets I'll be collecting over $175!  WHOO HOO!

Friday April 26

A Good Day

It was not a highly profitable day, but it was a day where I enjoyed cashing many tickets.  I headed out to Calder on Friday to spend the day there.  I was interested in being on track largely because it was closing day at Keeneland (AND it was opening day at Belmont).

I only had 17 selections, and they were spaced about 30 minutes apart for the most part.  Normally that would make for a long day at the races, but I wanted to handicap the Saturday racing card, so I was able to enjoy being there AND handicapping for Saturday.  I had posted on Facebook four selections that I had a lot of confidence in as my "best" selections of the day in the morning, and as soon as I arrived I had two of them go to the post.  The opener at Calder preceded these two where I selected  A Real Fancy Place to score in a maiden claimer.  It was a VERY weak field and 'Place was a first-timer for the powerful Team Calabrese stable.  He won by nine widening lengths geared down!  Less than five minutes later I watched Curve Ball run away with the second at Belmont, the first of my "best" picks.  He was Dave Liftin's "best" as well.  All four of his career starts had earned Beyer speed figures bigger than any LIFETIME figure by the entire field.  It was a no brainer - though at the top of the stretch he had yet to get to the lead, but by a furlong out he was long gone.  Less than ten minutes after that I tripled the bet on No Nay Never at Keeneland.  In years past I would have never done this, but one thing I've learned as part of my "graduate school" of handicapping is how very important the trainer is with maidens, and in particular two-year-old maidens.  I used to pass these like the plague, but now I often find big scores in them.  Here was one - the key, Wesley Ward as a trainer of a juvenile in the spring at Keeneland.  Those win without hardly ever losing.  I had first read an article in the DRF about a 2yo maiden event on Thursday that had no Ward 2-year-olds and he was asked about it.  His reply was he felt very confident they would win the 2yo race on Friday, and here it was.  When I saw No Nay Never listed at 7/2 in the program had high hopes of a big score, but he was bet down to 4/5.  Still, I thought that was stealing.  Unlike most Ward juveniles he broke slowly and I thought that would be the end of that because they all wire the field.  But record-setting Joel Rosario raced up the rail, cleared the field and was L-O-N-G gone!  WHOOOO HOOOO!

 

I had scored in three straight to start the day and in back-to-back "best" bets that I had posted publicly on Facebook!  A GREAT start to the day.  I was disappointed when Circus Game did not win, at 1/5, at Calder (another Wesley Ward 2yo).  And missed with Mike Battaglia's "best" at Keeneland when Perfect Timber was a well-beaten fourth on the turf.  But I hit the first of three nice-priced winners at Belmont when Fly Ride scored sprinting over the turf.  He was the lone winner in the field over the Belmont turf, and that had come off a layoff with Irad Ortiz riding.....today Fly Ride was coming off a layoff and Ortiz was riding!  In retrospect I should have invested more than minimum, especially with a  $10.60 payoff.  After missing at Calder and Keeneland I won with the next Belmont price horse, With Exhultation.  This was a Maiden Special over the turf and I liked the first time starter from Christophe Clement's barn.  Jockey Jose Lezcano was a 31% winning rider for the outfit and Clement wins with nearly 20% of his debut runners.  'Exhultation was way back early, but came flying from out of the television picture on the turn, swooped up five wide and drew clear with authority.  The $8.90 payoff was delightful! 

I was second over the Keeneland turf at 2/1 and then it was time for the third of my "Facebook Selections."  Tom Kitten was a six-time turf winner and his speed figures in his last two starts were nearly paired numbers (85-86) indicating a move forward.  I thought aggressive rider Paco Lopez would put him near the front of what projected to be a soft pace and then draw clear with authority.  Instead a 24-1 longshot set a slow pace and Tom Kitten was near the back.  Still trailing by double-digits into the lane Lopez pushed the "GO" button and Tom was flying!  On the wire it was a head bob.......

SECOND!  Grrrrrr.  Less than twenty minutes later we were back on the turf at Belmont and I won for the FOURTH TIME on their opening day card!  Ready To Flaunt was trained by Michael Maker, owned by Ken & Sarah Ramsey - and these guys have been setting new records for wins at Keeneland after a very strong Gulfstream meet.  I thought it was a very positive sign that Ready To Flaunt had been training at Keeneland and he was sent here today.  Like the other turf winners in New York, he rallied wide and blew by them all through the lane, concluding a perfect four-for-four day at Belmont on their opening day!  WHOOO HOOO! 

Next on my selection sheet was the closing day feature at Keeneland, the Grade 3 Elkhorn going 1 1/2 miles on the grass.  Ioya Bigtime had won several times for me as the lone speed in marathon events like this, and he looked to have an easy time of it today on the front end.  He did, setting pedestrian fractions, but when the stalkers came to him he had no answer and faded to 7th.  The most ironic part of the race was this.......when I began handicapping for the day I seriously considered simply betting every Joel Rosario horse on the card.  He's just won with everything, shattering the track record for wins by a jockey in a meet.  This was highlighted on Thursday when he took the filly version of the Elkhorn (the Bewitched Stakes) at an insane 18-1.  But then I decided I would be better off to handicap on my own.  Yeah, I had a better idea........Rosario won the Elkhorn at 9-1!  And then in the last race of the day, where I thought it was a toss-up race and went with a longshot, he was second but the winner was a Michael Maker-Ken & Sarah Ramsey runner, AGAIN at 6/1.  For the day he was four-for-seven.....on a $2 investment of $14, I would have cashed for a total of $34!  The race-by-race results: 3rd: $3.60, 4th: $3.40 (he was actually 2nd but the entry won), 5th:  2nd (my pick), 7th:  2nd, 8th:  $7.20, 9th:  $19.80, 10th: 2nd.  WOW.  I had one more race to watch before planning to head home.  In the 4th at Hollywood Include The Cat looked easily best - he'd already won this AOC $40K nw2x condition not once, not twice, but THREE times!  He was tons the best in scoring again at even money - which  thought was an overlay.  I made two final bets on two more Hollywood races and headed home.  In the 5th Saddleranch was coming off a break of over a year, but trainer Bob Baffert is a frequent winner with long layoff types.  I think he would have won, at 5/2 odds, but he broke behind the field....after rushing up to engage and duel with the leaders through the turn he had nothing left for the stretch drive, 8th.  And then in the feature I liked Saint Loup.  Though he had not won since coming to North America he was a "best-of-the-rest" second in his last two races going 1 1/4 miles and 1 1/2 miles over the turf.  Today's race was at the 1 1/4 distance and I thought he looked much the best.  He was my fourth and final "Facebook play."  When the betting opened he was pounded down to 3/5 and stayed there.  I thought that was a pretty short price for a runner who had yet to win in this country.  But top rider Rafael Bejarano gave him a rail-skimming ride, slipped through at the top of the stretch and opened up to an apparent easy win.....but then here came the closers!  It was close but he held on by a comfortable 3/4 of a length!  YAYYYYYY ME! 

So on the day I had gone 3-for-4 with my "best" picks on Facebook, an overall I had gone an amazing 8-for-17, 47%.  That is some impressive handicapping my friend!  I will be headed out to Calder for Saturday's races, but the highlight of the day will be the Opening Day card at Churchill where we will be racing under the lights in the first "Downs After Dark" program of the summer meeting!

Thursday April 25

Happy Birthday My Son

Today was my oldest son's birthday - he turned 30 today.....wow.  Hard to believe.  And now he has his own family and is a college football coach.  Where has the time gone? 

I had three selections today and honestly I felt very good about the first one, but I went with the other two largely because of what I'd read and viewed in handicapping videos.  I picked Judy the Beauty in the third at Keeneland as my "best" of the day.  She had run in multiple graded events, and though she had not won, she towered over the field.  I was led to pick her from an article in the DRF where here owner/trainer Wesley Ward had commented how they were looking for a big year from her, and that they felt lucky that this allowance spot had filled as it was a good spot to bring her back in a winning way.  Pretty confident stuff.  The crowd agreed, betting her down to odds-on and though you had to have a few anxious moment at the furlong marker, she drew clear late....yay! 

In the other two I should have stayed clear.  I had been really impressed with Gathering's debut run on Opening Day, she had been my "best" that day and it was, as one writer described, a "jaw dropping" performance.  Still today she moved not only into graded company but also to 12 furlongs.  Both proved too much for her as she disappointed at 2/1.  Today was also Opening Day at Hollywood Park.  The featured race was the Harry Henson on the turf, going six furlongs.  Mike Beer for DRF picked My Jealous because the trainer, Jeff Bonde has scored last year twice with big price horses fitting this same profile....I considered staying clear, but when I saw Brad Free also picked this horse (his second choice) I decided the big price warranted the investment.  He was right there to the turn but had travelled four wide from the get-go and tired at 11/1.  So for the first two days of the week I've compiled a 3-for-7 mark.  Live racing for back-to-back days as I'll head out on both Friday and Saturday.  I will look forward to doing the same next week when it will be Kentucky Oaks Day and Kentucky Derby Day!

It Was A Good Start To The Week!

April 24

The first race of the first day of racing for the week was my "Best" of the day.  I had seen in the entries that Bernie the Maestro was slated to run in a starter allowance in Keeneland's opener.  It was an added bonus that he was running for the white-hot connections of owners Ken & Sarah Ramsey who have set a new Keeneland record for wins by an owner at the spring meet.....trained by Michael Maker who was closing in on a new Keeneland record for wins by a trainer at the Keeneland meet....and ridden by Joel Rosario who also was closing in on a new record for wins by a jockey at a Keeneland meet!  As I watched the pre-race analysis on TVG the analysts, who nearly never back a favorite, pointed out that while he had been the favorite in the Grade 3 Commonwealth last out, he had finished dead last and shown nothing.  But he looked to me like he laid over the field, even on an off day.  He was 1-9 early in the betting, then 1-5 for the longest time.  Even for me I thought this was a low price, but when he clicked up to 2-5 I thought he was a fair price.  I was delighted when they left the gate and he was an inflated 1-2.  He quickly took the lead, which was a bit of a concern because front-runners stuggle to hold on at Keeneland.  Still, as they turned for home he was in control by daylight.  But at the furlong marker here came a strong finisher with all the momentum.  It was closer than you would have liked, but it was a win!  Whooo Hooo! 

I had originally listed six selections on the nine race card.  But there was rain in Lexington and the turf races were moved to the synthetic main track, effectively cancelling two of my picks.  So as I sat there with my winning ticket on the opener, with my next listed pick in the third, I considered my summer philosophy of scaling back on my selections and betting only where I felt I had a strong edge.  Should I just be happy to have a 1-for-1 day with my "best" pick of the day.....or follow through with my four listed selections.  I debated with myself back and forth until about 15 minutes to post time of the third before I decided that I had handicapped the card, and I was going to play it out.  Ironically all four of my picks were Michael Maker-trained runners, and three of the four were ridden by Rosario.  In the 3rd I went with Smittenthekitten who was the 5/2 second choice.  Too far back, rallied to be third.  In the 7th it was DRF's Steve Klein's "best" of the day - #4 Fog Happens.  Second off the claim for Michael Maker and ridden by Alan Garcia.  TVG interviewed Michael Maker before the race, asking him how he felt about having the new trainer record (his reply, "....well, it's better than NOT having the record!...."  Then reporter Zoe Cadman asked which of his two uncouple entries he liked the best and his reply was "Ask me in a few minutes!"  It was interesting to me that while I was backing Maker's Fog Happens, I was against the other Maker horse which was being ridden by Joel Rosario and owned by the Ramseys!  As they came through the stretch it was an all-Maker exacta and the favorite was second while Fog Happens blew by the field to win motored down, paying $7.60!  I am guaranteed to be a winner on the day! 

I felt like of the "other three" picks on my sheet, Southern Joy in the finale was the most solid.  She looked to be the lone speed; was another Maker-Ramsey-Rosario runner; Rosario already had four wins on the day and Maker also had four wins.  Everyone on TVG said there was just no going past her - and remember they nearly never back the favorite.  Her odds at even money looked tempting to double my double investment.  But I didn't because I reflected that I thought Bernie the Maestro was the "best" of the day and it didn't make sense to make the same investment on a non-best bet.  Good thing. She was outrun to the turn - and she had shown the ability to rate, so no big worry - and then gradually dropped farther back into the field, finished a dismal 8th of 8 at odds of 4/5.  So my "wise" decision to NOT up the investment left me 2-for-4 and a profit for the day!

Saturday - Sunday April 20-21

DISNEY WEEKEND!

Four out of Five

This weekend we drove up to Orlando to visit our three "kids" for a Disney Day weekend. 

I had looked online to see who was running of interest and I found five runners on Saturday and one on Sunday I was interested in because I've been a fan of theirs in the past.  On Saturday I liked Departing in the Illinois Derby, Summer Front in the Miami Mile, Obviously in the San Simeon, Lady of Shamrock in the Santa Barbara, and I had been waiting for Game On Dude's appearance in the Charles Town Classic for several weeks now.  After dinner out on Friday we were up early to head to the Magic Kingdom.  But before we left I went online to make my investments for Saturday's races.  When I checked the programs I found that Departing had drawn the far outside post, #13, for the Illinois Derby and while I felt he was much the best of his rivals I just didn't want to take the chance without actually handicapping the rest of the field, so I passed that one.  The weather for South Florida was supposed to be a ton of rain with heavy storms so I thought there was an excellent chance the Grade 3 Miami Mile would come off the turf.  I wasn't sure what his connections would do in that case, so I decided to pass the Summer Front race as well.  So I doubled the bet on Obviously - it was his first back since the Breeders' Cup and he was sprinting, not going the mile distance he had proven so effective at.  I tripled the bet on Lady of Shamrock who had not shown her usual big kick in her season debut a month ago, and I made Game On Dude my "best" of the day with a "prime time" investment. 

At Disney the weather forecast was for 60% chance of rain and the high was supposed to barely hit 70 degrees.  But the weather, while overcast, was comfortable all day and we didn't get a single drop of precipitation....truly a magical day!  When we got home I logged into twinspires and watched the replays from Santa Anita.  First up was the Grade 2 Santa Barbara.  Lady of Shamrock was odds-on, but immediately I was worried.  It was a small group of five and the front-runner, while a longshot at 8/1, had everything her own way and set a :25 and :50 pace.....way too slow for Lady of Shamrock to make her patented late run.  AND she had a new rider, albeit the leading rider Rafael Bejarano, who had her in the back.  But as they approached the far turn he had her in gear and she was gobbling up ground.  As they spun out of the turn she was in second and he had to choose to swing outside - and give up a length or two, or hug the rail and try to slip through.  He took the ground-saving route and came to the neck of the front-runner when suddenly she had to check sharply and he took her up, losing two lengths or more.  She re-gathered herself and came again, but it was too late and she was a length and a half behind on the wire.  But immediately the INQUIRY sign went up.  It was a no brainer, even though the stewards took five minutes to watch the tape, and she was awarded first place, and I had my first winner of the weekend! 

In the Grade 3 San Simeon Obviously was the 9/5 favorite and broke slowly from the gate.  I figured that since he was normally a front-runner going a route of ground, he would track and finish in this sprint.  But as soon as he got his legs under him he was rushed to the lead.  OK, so he will set the pace and last because of his route ability I thought.  He led all the way down the hill, into the lane and into the final fifty yards before being caught in the final strides, second.  When the replay finished it was a little after 9 pm and the Grade 2 $1.5 Million Charles Town Classic was 27 minutes from post time.  So I watched "The Princess Bride" with my daughter Julie and waited.  My only concern about the race was that because Charles Town is a 6-furlong "bull ring" track, the normally two-turn mile and a eighth distance would now be THREE turns and more of the race would be run on the turns.  Wouldn't seem to be a big deal, but as Christina Blacker had pointed out on HRTV on Thursday, these quality horses normally did not spend this much time running on their left lead, the normally "weaker" of the two legs, so you couldn't know with any certainty how they would handle the trip.  But, I was encouraged that Hall of Fame jockey Mike Smith had been quoted that he was looking forward to riding because he'd grown up riding on such configurations.  He was the master on the front end and Game On Dude scored comfortably as the day's "BEST!"  WHOOOO HOOOOO! 

Two for three on the day.  Ironically when I checked the headlines on Sunday morning, Departing had crushed the Illinois Derby field and the Miami Mile had remained on the turf where Summer Front ran away from his rivals.....sigh, even though they were short-price favorites, it would have been nice to be 4-for-5 instead of 2-for-3 :)  We spent the day with Brad and Lauren and went out to a mid-afternoon dinner with Lauren's parents.  Then we headed for home.

When we got home I checked into twin spires to watch the replay of the only race that interested me, the Grade 3 Ben Ali on Keeneland's synthetic main track.  I found it interesting that one year ago the Ben Ali had been won by Wise Dan in a track record-setting performance that set him up for his Horse of the Year campaign, and that I had picked/bet on him WHILE WE WERE IN ORLANDO!  Well, Wise Dan had run last week over the Keeneland turf winning the Grade 1 Maker's Mark 46 Mile.  So, he wasn't running today, but his older brother Successful Dan was running and figured to be the favorite.  He had the same connections as Wise Dan, and while a seven-year-old, he'd only been out eleven times and was a perfect 4-for-4 over the Keeneland surface.  He always has physical issues, but when he comes to the track he is very talented.  So I knew he wasn't "prepping" today, he was "live" and he loved the surface.  He went off at an inflated 4-5 price which was stealing - as was the race itself.  The other riders for some reason not only let him have the uncontested lead, but allowed him to cake-walk through a :25 and change quarter and a :50 and change half mile.  There was no way he'd be caught in the stretch, especially with his perfect record over the track.  One of my favorite turf runners, Boisterous, made a late run to make the stretch finish "interesting," but there was no catching my pick.  Successful Dan won, and I cashed for nearly $20 to end 3-for-4 on a great weekend!

Disappointing Results Despite "Good Handicapping"

Thursday April 18

The results were frustrating, but still, as always  enjoyed being at the races today.  We have big plans for a Disney weekend with our Orlando-based kids, so today would be my "day at the races."  My first two selections were double investments, and as I told Kim yesterday, I thought the races today looked very formful (unlike most weekdays which are often difficult to find "solid" selections).  In the first race on my card I liked Talent N Passion at Aqueduct.  He had the rail and was the LONE speed.  Looked to be an easy gate-to-wire winner.  Sure enough as they hit the turn he was clear by two and had not been asked to run.  The closest pursuer was a 36-1 longshot.  As they straightened for home I was thinking how this was an easy score, and was delighted when his odds slipped up a notch to 4/5.  But in mid-stretch the 36-1 runner began to close ground.  I was certain that 'Talent would have a response, but as the wire neared it was closer and closer, and in the final strides I was nailed - 2nd.  Really?  Moments later my second selection was in action.  At Keeneland, which is deadly to front-runners, I had Francois.  While he had not won in quite some time today marked the lowest level he'd ever been at and he had the perfect running style.  Sure enough as they hit the far turn the favorite was on the lead, where he'd been from the get-go, and I was making a big move to come to him.  In the stretch, even the most comfortable of loose-on-the-lead front runners are nearly always inhaled.  But Joel Rosario held the leader together and I could not get by!  Really, again?  First I have the favorite on the lead and cannot hold on and then I have the challenger closing and can't catch the favorite.  Wow......turned out to be a harbinger on the day. 

At Calder my 6/1 selection was bet down to 9/5 but was not better than third.  In the second at Keeneland I had a stalker, bet down from 4/1 to 9/5, chasing a Rosario-ridden front-runner and AGAIN could not get by - 2nd, again.  Lost again at Calder on the turf when He's A Fireball was no better than 3rd.  The next race on my selection sheet was Dave Liftin's "Best" from Aqueduct, and Suncatcher went off at 8/5.  Much the like the opener in New York, he was easily in front......and was caught late by a price horse.....sigh, second again. 

FINALLY a win - in the 3rd at Keeneland.  The race was a 4 1/2 furlong event for young two-year-olds.  Wesley Ward is just deadly with those, especially here at Keeneland in the spring.  So my initial choice was Mary At the Cove.  I planned to triple the investment and was hoping she indeed did not go off as the favorite (5/2 in the program).  But then I saw another debut runner, from a 20% FTS-winning barn who had a best-of-33 bullet work locally.  Is this the time to go against Ward?  I thought no when I made my selections.  But as I looked at the board and the other juvenile was the 2/1 favorite I thought to myself....."track logic" - Rosario has gone wire-to-wire in both the first and the second, and now he's on my horse who will undoubtedly try to wire the field.....what are the odds?  Even better reason to go against?  I wavered, but then held to my ground, reasoning that the fact Rosario had been on board for back-to-back wire-to-wire winners did NOT have anything to do with the chances of my horse.  Good thing I stuck to my guns, Mary At the Cove was EASILY best!  WHOOOO HOOOO, a winner and I cashed for almost $40....now we're on our way I thought. 

Right away I thought I was lined up for another nice score in the 4th at Aqueduct with a Euro import on the turf.  But Ella's Kitten - at a nice 3/1 - didn't even hit the board.  I was certain I'd score in my next selection with Hillswick in my only Pimlico selection.  He had the rail and was clearly the speed of the race - though he could rate if he wanted - and his Beyers towered over his rivals.  He went to the front, let a longshot have it as they approached the turn, and then instead of rallying, he fell farther and farther back through the field and was last / 5th of five at 4/5 odds in spite of my "Best" status I'd given him. 

I got my second winner, and another triple investment at Calder.  Owner Frank Calabrese had an entry in here with two separate trainers and jockeys, so I thought they'd both go, but only one did.  Dreaming of Lucy was 4/5, then 1/5, and finally settled at 2/5 as they approached the gate.  As I got to the rail I looked to my left and there was an older gentleman in shorts, t-shirt and flip-flops with a younger guy.  I could hear their conversation and I caught the phrase, "...your horse...." 

I took another look and I thought, "I'm nearly positive that IS Frank Calabrese!"  As they field came through the stretch both men were pounding their programs and yelling, "Come on Dreamer!" - and then after the race they went right to the winner's circle for photos!  Cool!  I was disappointed at the odds, but happy to cash another ticket. 

I had an hour break an then another race at Calder.  Argentine Tango was chasing the 4/1 "other horse" I'd looked at and as I stood near the wire it was a PHOTO FINISH!  Want to guess, yes, second......sigh.  But I came back to score at Keeneland in a turf sprint.  As the field turned for home my pick, There Is No Limit was near the back with a lot of ground to make up under Rosie Napravnik.  As she slowly began to run by horses, Joel Rosario AGAIN surged to the front.....really? I thought......but in the final 100 yards 'No Limit went by at a nice 2/1.  Collected another $15. 

I TRULY thought I had a REAL legitimate upset in my next pick.  Sally's Dream was 8/1 in the program and left the gate at 6/1. The field for the 7th at Aqueduct was a combined 0-for-18 over the grass at this distance and Sally was 4-for-6!  She had the rail draw and was comfortably in front as they went down the backside.  I was nearly certain that I was on the verge of "the score" of the day.  As they approached the turn the rider let a double-digit longshot have the lead and began to try to ease off the rail to have a clear outside run.  But then he was cut off by the longshot, clipped heels and the rider almost fell off.  By the time they had turned for home the jock finally had his feet back in the irons, but it was too late by then......wow, such is the story of the day.  I had the 7/5 favorite in my last live race at Calder - non-threatening 4th.  I headed for home with "Bet of the Day" in the featured Grade 3 Appalachian at Keeneland to look forward to as well as three picks at Sana Anita. 

At Keeneland Watsdachances was pounded down to 3/5, which made me feel good that she was the obvious choice and would not loose because I'd misjudged her chances.  She tracked the leaders, was asked to run on the turn and just ran evenly to finish 4th.  Sigh..... I did hit one of three at Santa Anita when Uno Dos Adios was a powerful winner down the hill at Santa Anita - I love to bet those races - but lost the other two.  For the day I only had four wins from eighteen selections.  Disappointing.  I do have four or five stakes selections I will make before we head to the Magic Kingdom on Saturday, but the next full day won't come until some time next week.

Saturday April 13

Not Like Last Week, But What A THRILLING Finish!

After the big start to the summer last Saturday, followed by a 3-for-4 week of selective handicapping, I thought I was well on my way to yet another big day when I won the opener at Calder in a very tight photo finish.  Bear's Spirit was first off the claim for Team Calabrese, and that is a 27% win angle (though I'd swear they win more often when first off the claim locally).  But as they came through the stretch he couldn't seem to get by the "other" horse.  As they flashed by me as I stood at the rail at the finish line I wasn't sure.  The slow motion replays still gave me no clue.  But, I got the photo.....with a double investment I thought, "here we go!"  That was a little before 1 pm.  

The next winning ticket and video entry didn't come until after 3:30 pm!  At Keeneland I was second best at 4/1 with a first-time starter with Joel Rosario on board; then no where to be found fifth at Tampa with a Jamie Ness-Daniel Centeno, first-off-the-claim runner (39%) at 7/5 - wow.  Had Rosie Napravnik on a 10/1 longshot, which was Katie Mikolay's second choice, well-beaten 8th.  I doubled the investment on Tiger at Calder in the 4th - he was 1-5, and didn't hit the board.....wow squared!  Keeneland on the turf at 6/1 and Tetradrachm was second best to the favorite.....sigh.  9/1 at Oaklawn and a good third, but still no money.  The 4th at Oaklawn had multiple graded stakes placed Nehro facing allowance runners.  Easy pickings at 4/5......fifth....wow cubed!  And missed at Aqueduct when Verbosity was fifth at 7/5.  That is a long sequence of 2 1/2 hours my friends!  But I didn't give up and kept the faith knowing that the winners would eventually come.  In the opener at Santa Anita I backed the favorite, Master Appeal who had a double Beyer speed figure advantage.  But he was five wide into the stretch....still, he was gobbling up ground through the lane, and finally with 100 yards to go he caught the leader and drew clear late.  FINALLY, a winner!  

I REALLY thought today was going to be the day that Bind realized his potential.  He has so much talent but continues to disappoint.  He had blistered a second best of 107 works over the Keeneland synthetic and he was bet down to 5/2 in the Grade 3 Commonwealth.  But again, he was an even 4th.  Disappointed with a triple bet on him.  New Englander had let me down three times in a row at Gulfstream - add once at Calder when 4th at 5/2.  In the Grade 3 Shakertown at Keeneland, going 5 1/2 furlongs on the turf.  I had Something Extra who was bet down from 9/2 in the program to 2/1 at post time.  I do NOT like Julien Leparoux as a rider, especially after his ride on Union Rags last year, but he does ride well normally here.  He was on my pick from the rail.  Saved all the ground into the stretch and then asked for run.  There was a seam outside between runners and he moved out, changed his mind, guided him back in, then out, and then in again.....what the?  A rail runner, with money-rider Garrett Gomez showed no heistation and shot through the inside when finally Leparoux let the horse run.....a nose short.  And THAT my friends is the case against Julien Leparoux, yet again.  FINALLY, back in the winner's circle.....this time at Calder with Double Reverse.  He was a Marty Wolfson class dropper who looked easily best on paper.  It was not "easy" but he won comfortably, and was bet down according to his paper form to 3/5.  I had doubled the bet and was just happy to cash again!  

Within minutes it was time for the first of my "Prime Time" bets.  On Facebook I announced five "BEST" bets of the day, the first being in the Grade 2 Distaff Handicap at Aqueduct.  Cluster of Stars looked to lay over the field IF she handled the rise in class into graded stakes company.  She was unbeaten in four starts, the last two wire-to-wire.  But she'd shown the ability to rate, so either scenario was fine with me.  Three of the seven originally slated to run scratched and so I made the power decision to "up the ante" from a "prime time" ($20) investment to a "Bet of the Day" level investment ($30).  She broke sharply and was on an easy lead as they hit the far turn.  But she was well off the rail and at that point the "other speed" horse (who I thought would be the target for Cluster of Stars) shot through and took the lead, at 15/1!  As they turned for home she was still two lengths in front of 'Stars!  Oh no!  But then her class and ability kicked in.  She collared the leader at the 16th pole and drew off as M-U-C-H the best.  WHOOO HOOOO!  

Now I'm on a roll, or so I thought..... My next pick was a double investment at Santa Anita in their 3rd where Courtside looked loose on the lead.  And he was at 6/5.  They hit the far turn and the rider had a strong hold on him;  I shifted my gaze to the TV two screens over where the Keeneland Grade 1 Madison started and found my runner, Queen's Award.  Shifted back to Santa Anita and they were into the lane.....and I had been caught and run by!  Seriously?  Held second at 6/5, but wow.......Keeneland I was an even 5th at 5/1.  Oaklawn I had an 8/1 shot who was in position as they spun out of the far turn, but then he stopped - 6th.  In the Runway Stakes down the hill at Santa Anita Upbeat Mood looked loose on an easy lead.  And he was all the way down the hill and into the lane at 9/2.  But he could not hold off two closers, third.  Out to the rail moments later where High Level Jeff was everyone's "best" - he was even money tracking the leaders into the stretch but hung in the final furlong - 3rd.  I got back inside just in time for the Grade 1 Jenny Wiley.  The filly to beat was Centre Court who was the 8/5 favorite.  BUT, she was down on the rail and had Leparoux riding and I was SURE he would get her into trouble.  My pick was Daisy Devine with Rosie Napravnik on board.  Daisy is a front runner and there looked to be other speed.  BUT, I knew she didn't NEED to lead and that if the other riders perceived there to be too much speed, Rosie would grab the lead and be loose on the lead.  I was so tickled she was 7/2 and as they hit the backstretch everyone had let her go!  Loose in front by daylight on a long rein.  They turned for home and she was still clear, but here came Centre Court.  I just knew Daisy had a final surge left, but she couldn't withstand the late run of the favorite.....second.  Oh that hurt - the $9 (or more payoff) with a triple investment would have cleared me close to $70 - ouch.  

I shifted attention to Oaklawn where it was my second "Bet of the Day" and my second Facebook pick.  It was the $500,000 Grade 2 Oaklawn Handicap.  My pick was defending BC Classic champion Fort Larned.  He had made his debut in the Grade 2 Gulfstream Park Handicap and I was ALL AGAINST him that day.  It was a one-turn mile and obviously just the first race as a prep for a season of BIG handicap events.  That day, right out of the gate Fort Larned dropped jockey Brian Hernandez.  I just KNEW that today they were not prepping - he would be 100% fit and ready to score.  When I read his trainer quoted as saying his work over the track had been good and he would have "....no excuses..." if he didn't win today I was certain he was a winner.  I thought the 1-2 odds were more than fair as they left the gate.  He rated, wide, but he was clearly the superior horse so I wasn't worried.  They hit the far turn and the local horse who'd won the prep for this streaked through effortlessly on the rail.  Hernandez asked Fort Larned to run......and no response.  He began really riding and the only response was Fort Larned started swerving around like he was punch-drunk.  Not only disappointing, but the $40 win ticket really hurt.....another potential, "sure" $60 gone.  It was slim consolation that moments later I won at Tampa.  Saintly Love looked beaten for sure with a furlong to go over the Oldsmar turf but came flying home to win on the wire!  Glad to have a winner, but it was a minimum bet on an 8/5 favorite.  

At this point I was ready to head home.  The featured $100,000 Calder Oaks had been taken off the turf, leading to the scratch of my third (of five) "Best" picks on Facebook.  But I had a main track selection ready....but he scratched.  Wow.  I made my last five bets and headed for home.  The big decision had been on my "BET of the DAY" in the featured Grade 3 Las Cinegas at Santa Anita.  I knew before I even started handicapping when I'd read that one of my favorite fillies, Mizdirection, as running that she would be the bet of the day.  She was a multiple graded stakes winner, and unbeaten down the Santa Anita hillside (5-for-5).  She'd won the Breeders' Cup Turf Sprint over the course (paying $13.80 with my triple bet!) and was not facing a single graded winner.  I was ready to make a "Zenyatta-like" bet of $100 to win.  But I had this nagging feeling of "what if" someone went to the lead and forgot to stop or she ran into traffic trouble.  So I went back and forth about the amount.  When I had earlier taped my picks for the late races I'd settled on a $50 bet and said so on camera.  But as it came closer to the time to bet I couldn't shake the feeling that she simply WAS the best.  So I split the difference.....I was willing to go beyond $50, but couldn't shake the "better be careful" feeling that kept me from the full $100, so I settled on a $75 win bet.  Considering that as I made the bet I had only won four races (it was before the Tampa score), you have to admit that this showed great courage on my part....and faith in my handicapping!  So I headed home, changed clothes and Kim and I went to the Panthers game (lost 3-1, empty net goal with less than a minute to go provided the final margin).  We got home and I sat down to watch my last five races.....first up was the Grade 1 Blue Grass from Keeneland.  It, and the Arkansas Derby today, were the last big preps for the Kentucky Derby.  I really liked Todd Pletcher's Palace Malice.  Pletcher had been quoted how much he liked him and he'd had troubled trips at the Fair Grounds.  I just thought today he could surprise, the way Emollient had last week in the Ashland.  As they turned for home he was behind the leader and blew right on by!  In mid-stretch he was clear by daylight at 9/2 and I had doubled the bet!  But then here came the late running Java's Gold, who had last been seen trying to catch Verrazano in the Tampa Bay Derby.  He had the momentum, but could he catch Palace Malice before the wire came up?  Sooooo close!   Second for Palace Malice.  Sigh..... I couldn't believe it, but it had been "that kind of day."  Next an allowance on the Santa Anita downhill course.  Dixieland Blues had the best figures and had the right running style to catch the dueling front-runners.  Sent off at 7/5, she never fired - fifth.  Really?  

Next on my selection sheet was the Grade 1 Arkansas Derby.  I thought the race was a complete toss-up.  But I was intrigued with one runner.....here was my comment:  "How amazing would it be if a Pletcher-trained, Grade 2 winner at today's 9 furlong distance pays $10?  Note that every other race is a rebound win and today is the 'rebound day!'  That was the description for Michael Repole-owned, Todd Pletcher-trained Overanalyze.  He'd only started once since the fall when he won the Remsen and he was just so-so.  If he was going to make the Derby, today had to be the day.  And he had the works to say he would run big; and the pattern of win, loss, win, loss, win, loss - today?????  He was 4/1 in the program and the crowd made him 7/2 at post time.  He was mid-pack but new rider, leading Southern Cal rider Rafael Bejarano had him moving on the turn and I thought, "Uh oh....maybe...."  And then he accelerated and quickly opened up and drew off!  Y-E-S!!!!!! He paid $9.40 and with my double bet I collected nearly $50!  Oh thank you!  

Finally, it was time for my "BET of the DAY" But, I was already on the Oaklawn replay page, so I postponed my "BEST" until I watched the final bet of the day, a starter allowance going 14 furlongs in the Oaklawn finale.  Flattermejim had won 3 of his last 4 and at this marathon distance; he appeared a standout and was bet to 4/5 favoritism.  He was double-digits behind a streaking longshot leader as they turned down the backside, but quickly caught him, and was engaged by the second choice.  It was a stirring stretch duel to the final 100 yards when Flattermejim drew clear.  I win.....AGAIN!  Got back nearly $20.  

I flipped channels to the Mizdirection race.  The filly has shown the ability to come from well back or wire the field, so no matter how the race shaped up I was pretty confident of her winning, unless something stupid happened......the gates opened and she was easily in front.  Ok, I thought.  But as they worked their way down the hillside course she allowed a longshot (ironically an uncoupled entry/stablemate) to take the lead and she tracked her.  She was, as Trevor Denman called, "breathing down her neck" as they crossed the main track and turned for home.  But she was a bit wide into the stretch and suddenly found herself behind by a couple of lengths.......she didn't make up any ground to the furlong pole, and at the sixteenth pole the leader was still going strong.....sigh, just what I was afraid of!  

 Then suddenly you could see she had found another gear....closing, CLOSING, RIGHT ON THE WIRE....whew....... 

 Oh my!  How heart-stopping was that?  And the joy of winning of my last three, and my "BEST of the DAY!"  AND cashing that huge $75 ticket!  

I calculated I would get back $105 on that, and with the Tampa winner, the two from Oaklawn, and Mizdirection tickets, my next trip to the track I will start off with over $180 in winnings!  For the day I ended up with 8 wins from 28 selections - 29%; not nearly equal to last week.  And for the week I was a combined 12-for-32, over 33%.  With a couple of picks tomorrow maybe I can get back to that 40% win level.  

Still, even as the day ended without a big profit it had been a good day of racing.  Nothing as exciting as winning my "BEST" - especially in a heart-pounding finish with a lot of money on the line :)  AND my Facebook picks.....one scratch, one loss and two wins!  WHOOO HOOOO!