Summer 2013

Friday April 26

A Good Day

It was not a highly profitable day, but it was a day where I enjoyed cashing many tickets.  I headed out to Calder on Friday to spend the day there.  I was interested in being on track largely because it was closing day at Keeneland (AND it was opening day at Belmont).

I only had 17 selections, and they were spaced about 30 minutes apart for the most part.  Normally that would make for a long day at the races, but I wanted to handicap the Saturday racing card, so I was able to enjoy being there AND handicapping for Saturday.  I had posted on Facebook four selections that I had a lot of confidence in as my "best" selections of the day in the morning, and as soon as I arrived I had two of them go to the post.  The opener at Calder preceded these two where I selected  A Real Fancy Place to score in a maiden claimer.  It was a VERY weak field and 'Place was a first-timer for the powerful Team Calabrese stable.  He won by nine widening lengths geared down!  Less than five minutes later I watched Curve Ball run away with the second at Belmont, the first of my "best" picks.  He was Dave Liftin's "best" as well.  All four of his career starts had earned Beyer speed figures bigger than any LIFETIME figure by the entire field.  It was a no brainer - though at the top of the stretch he had yet to get to the lead, but by a furlong out he was long gone.  Less than ten minutes after that I tripled the bet on No Nay Never at Keeneland.  In years past I would have never done this, but one thing I've learned as part of my "graduate school" of handicapping is how very important the trainer is with maidens, and in particular two-year-old maidens.  I used to pass these like the plague, but now I often find big scores in them.  Here was one - the key, Wesley Ward as a trainer of a juvenile in the spring at Keeneland.  Those win without hardly ever losing.  I had first read an article in the DRF about a 2yo maiden event on Thursday that had no Ward 2-year-olds and he was asked about it.  His reply was he felt very confident they would win the 2yo race on Friday, and here it was.  When I saw No Nay Never listed at 7/2 in the program had high hopes of a big score, but he was bet down to 4/5.  Still, I thought that was stealing.  Unlike most Ward juveniles he broke slowly and I thought that would be the end of that because they all wire the field.  But record-setting Joel Rosario raced up the rail, cleared the field and was L-O-N-G gone!  WHOOOO HOOOO!

 

I had scored in three straight to start the day and in back-to-back "best" bets that I had posted publicly on Facebook!  A GREAT start to the day.  I was disappointed when Circus Game did not win, at 1/5, at Calder (another Wesley Ward 2yo).  And missed with Mike Battaglia's "best" at Keeneland when Perfect Timber was a well-beaten fourth on the turf.  But I hit the first of three nice-priced winners at Belmont when Fly Ride scored sprinting over the turf.  He was the lone winner in the field over the Belmont turf, and that had come off a layoff with Irad Ortiz riding.....today Fly Ride was coming off a layoff and Ortiz was riding!  In retrospect I should have invested more than minimum, especially with a  $10.60 payoff.  After missing at Calder and Keeneland I won with the next Belmont price horse, With Exhultation.  This was a Maiden Special over the turf and I liked the first time starter from Christophe Clement's barn.  Jockey Jose Lezcano was a 31% winning rider for the outfit and Clement wins with nearly 20% of his debut runners.  'Exhultation was way back early, but came flying from out of the television picture on the turn, swooped up five wide and drew clear with authority.  The $8.90 payoff was delightful! 

I was second over the Keeneland turf at 2/1 and then it was time for the third of my "Facebook Selections."  Tom Kitten was a six-time turf winner and his speed figures in his last two starts were nearly paired numbers (85-86) indicating a move forward.  I thought aggressive rider Paco Lopez would put him near the front of what projected to be a soft pace and then draw clear with authority.  Instead a 24-1 longshot set a slow pace and Tom Kitten was near the back.  Still trailing by double-digits into the lane Lopez pushed the "GO" button and Tom was flying!  On the wire it was a head bob.......

SECOND!  Grrrrrr.  Less than twenty minutes later we were back on the turf at Belmont and I won for the FOURTH TIME on their opening day card!  Ready To Flaunt was trained by Michael Maker, owned by Ken & Sarah Ramsey - and these guys have been setting new records for wins at Keeneland after a very strong Gulfstream meet.  I thought it was a very positive sign that Ready To Flaunt had been training at Keeneland and he was sent here today.  Like the other turf winners in New York, he rallied wide and blew by them all through the lane, concluding a perfect four-for-four day at Belmont on their opening day!  WHOOO HOOO! 

Next on my selection sheet was the closing day feature at Keeneland, the Grade 3 Elkhorn going 1 1/2 miles on the grass.  Ioya Bigtime had won several times for me as the lone speed in marathon events like this, and he looked to have an easy time of it today on the front end.  He did, setting pedestrian fractions, but when the stalkers came to him he had no answer and faded to 7th.  The most ironic part of the race was this.......when I began handicapping for the day I seriously considered simply betting every Joel Rosario horse on the card.  He's just won with everything, shattering the track record for wins by a jockey in a meet.  This was highlighted on Thursday when he took the filly version of the Elkhorn (the Bewitched Stakes) at an insane 18-1.  But then I decided I would be better off to handicap on my own.  Yeah, I had a better idea........Rosario won the Elkhorn at 9-1!  And then in the last race of the day, where I thought it was a toss-up race and went with a longshot, he was second but the winner was a Michael Maker-Ken & Sarah Ramsey runner, AGAIN at 6/1.  For the day he was four-for-seven.....on a $2 investment of $14, I would have cashed for a total of $34!  The race-by-race results: 3rd: $3.60, 4th: $3.40 (he was actually 2nd but the entry won), 5th:  2nd (my pick), 7th:  2nd, 8th:  $7.20, 9th:  $19.80, 10th: 2nd.  WOW.  I had one more race to watch before planning to head home.  In the 4th at Hollywood Include The Cat looked easily best - he'd already won this AOC $40K nw2x condition not once, not twice, but THREE times!  He was tons the best in scoring again at even money - which  thought was an overlay.  I made two final bets on two more Hollywood races and headed home.  In the 5th Saddleranch was coming off a break of over a year, but trainer Bob Baffert is a frequent winner with long layoff types.  I think he would have won, at 5/2 odds, but he broke behind the field....after rushing up to engage and duel with the leaders through the turn he had nothing left for the stretch drive, 8th.  And then in the feature I liked Saint Loup.  Though he had not won since coming to North America he was a "best-of-the-rest" second in his last two races going 1 1/4 miles and 1 1/2 miles over the turf.  Today's race was at the 1 1/4 distance and I thought he looked much the best.  He was my fourth and final "Facebook play."  When the betting opened he was pounded down to 3/5 and stayed there.  I thought that was a pretty short price for a runner who had yet to win in this country.  But top rider Rafael Bejarano gave him a rail-skimming ride, slipped through at the top of the stretch and opened up to an apparent easy win.....but then here came the closers!  It was close but he held on by a comfortable 3/4 of a length!  YAYYYYYY ME! 

So on the day I had gone 3-for-4 with my "best" picks on Facebook, an overall I had gone an amazing 8-for-17, 47%.  That is some impressive handicapping my friend!  I will be headed out to Calder for Saturday's races, but the highlight of the day will be the Opening Day card at Churchill where we will be racing under the lights in the first "Downs After Dark" program of the summer meeting!