Summer 2013

Disappointing Results Despite "Good Handicapping"

Thursday April 18

The results were frustrating, but still, as always  enjoyed being at the races today.  We have big plans for a Disney weekend with our Orlando-based kids, so today would be my "day at the races."  My first two selections were double investments, and as I told Kim yesterday, I thought the races today looked very formful (unlike most weekdays which are often difficult to find "solid" selections).  In the first race on my card I liked Talent N Passion at Aqueduct.  He had the rail and was the LONE speed.  Looked to be an easy gate-to-wire winner.  Sure enough as they hit the turn he was clear by two and had not been asked to run.  The closest pursuer was a 36-1 longshot.  As they straightened for home I was thinking how this was an easy score, and was delighted when his odds slipped up a notch to 4/5.  But in mid-stretch the 36-1 runner began to close ground.  I was certain that 'Talent would have a response, but as the wire neared it was closer and closer, and in the final strides I was nailed - 2nd.  Really?  Moments later my second selection was in action.  At Keeneland, which is deadly to front-runners, I had Francois.  While he had not won in quite some time today marked the lowest level he'd ever been at and he had the perfect running style.  Sure enough as they hit the far turn the favorite was on the lead, where he'd been from the get-go, and I was making a big move to come to him.  In the stretch, even the most comfortable of loose-on-the-lead front runners are nearly always inhaled.  But Joel Rosario held the leader together and I could not get by!  Really, again?  First I have the favorite on the lead and cannot hold on and then I have the challenger closing and can't catch the favorite.  Wow......turned out to be a harbinger on the day. 

At Calder my 6/1 selection was bet down to 9/5 but was not better than third.  In the second at Keeneland I had a stalker, bet down from 4/1 to 9/5, chasing a Rosario-ridden front-runner and AGAIN could not get by - 2nd, again.  Lost again at Calder on the turf when He's A Fireball was no better than 3rd.  The next race on my selection sheet was Dave Liftin's "Best" from Aqueduct, and Suncatcher went off at 8/5.  Much the like the opener in New York, he was easily in front......and was caught late by a price horse.....sigh, second again. 

FINALLY a win - in the 3rd at Keeneland.  The race was a 4 1/2 furlong event for young two-year-olds.  Wesley Ward is just deadly with those, especially here at Keeneland in the spring.  So my initial choice was Mary At the Cove.  I planned to triple the investment and was hoping she indeed did not go off as the favorite (5/2 in the program).  But then I saw another debut runner, from a 20% FTS-winning barn who had a best-of-33 bullet work locally.  Is this the time to go against Ward?  I thought no when I made my selections.  But as I looked at the board and the other juvenile was the 2/1 favorite I thought to myself....."track logic" - Rosario has gone wire-to-wire in both the first and the second, and now he's on my horse who will undoubtedly try to wire the field.....what are the odds?  Even better reason to go against?  I wavered, but then held to my ground, reasoning that the fact Rosario had been on board for back-to-back wire-to-wire winners did NOT have anything to do with the chances of my horse.  Good thing I stuck to my guns, Mary At the Cove was EASILY best!  WHOOOO HOOOO, a winner and I cashed for almost $40....now we're on our way I thought. 

Right away I thought I was lined up for another nice score in the 4th at Aqueduct with a Euro import on the turf.  But Ella's Kitten - at a nice 3/1 - didn't even hit the board.  I was certain I'd score in my next selection with Hillswick in my only Pimlico selection.  He had the rail and was clearly the speed of the race - though he could rate if he wanted - and his Beyers towered over his rivals.  He went to the front, let a longshot have it as they approached the turn, and then instead of rallying, he fell farther and farther back through the field and was last / 5th of five at 4/5 odds in spite of my "Best" status I'd given him. 

I got my second winner, and another triple investment at Calder.  Owner Frank Calabrese had an entry in here with two separate trainers and jockeys, so I thought they'd both go, but only one did.  Dreaming of Lucy was 4/5, then 1/5, and finally settled at 2/5 as they approached the gate.  As I got to the rail I looked to my left and there was an older gentleman in shorts, t-shirt and flip-flops with a younger guy.  I could hear their conversation and I caught the phrase, "...your horse...." 

I took another look and I thought, "I'm nearly positive that IS Frank Calabrese!"  As they field came through the stretch both men were pounding their programs and yelling, "Come on Dreamer!" - and then after the race they went right to the winner's circle for photos!  Cool!  I was disappointed at the odds, but happy to cash another ticket. 

I had an hour break an then another race at Calder.  Argentine Tango was chasing the 4/1 "other horse" I'd looked at and as I stood near the wire it was a PHOTO FINISH!  Want to guess, yes, second......sigh.  But I came back to score at Keeneland in a turf sprint.  As the field turned for home my pick, There Is No Limit was near the back with a lot of ground to make up under Rosie Napravnik.  As she slowly began to run by horses, Joel Rosario AGAIN surged to the front.....really? I thought......but in the final 100 yards 'No Limit went by at a nice 2/1.  Collected another $15. 

I TRULY thought I had a REAL legitimate upset in my next pick.  Sally's Dream was 8/1 in the program and left the gate at 6/1. The field for the 7th at Aqueduct was a combined 0-for-18 over the grass at this distance and Sally was 4-for-6!  She had the rail draw and was comfortably in front as they went down the backside.  I was nearly certain that I was on the verge of "the score" of the day.  As they approached the turn the rider let a double-digit longshot have the lead and began to try to ease off the rail to have a clear outside run.  But then he was cut off by the longshot, clipped heels and the rider almost fell off.  By the time they had turned for home the jock finally had his feet back in the irons, but it was too late by then......wow, such is the story of the day.  I had the 7/5 favorite in my last live race at Calder - non-threatening 4th.  I headed for home with "Bet of the Day" in the featured Grade 3 Appalachian at Keeneland to look forward to as well as three picks at Sana Anita. 

At Keeneland Watsdachances was pounded down to 3/5, which made me feel good that she was the obvious choice and would not loose because I'd misjudged her chances.  She tracked the leaders, was asked to run on the turn and just ran evenly to finish 4th.  Sigh..... I did hit one of three at Santa Anita when Uno Dos Adios was a powerful winner down the hill at Santa Anita - I love to bet those races - but lost the other two.  For the day I only had four wins from eighteen selections.  Disappointing.  I do have four or five stakes selections I will make before we head to the Magic Kingdom on Saturday, but the next full day won't come until some time next week.