Summer 2013

Saturday - Sunday April 20-21

DISNEY WEEKEND!

Four out of Five

This weekend we drove up to Orlando to visit our three "kids" for a Disney Day weekend. 

I had looked online to see who was running of interest and I found five runners on Saturday and one on Sunday I was interested in because I've been a fan of theirs in the past.  On Saturday I liked Departing in the Illinois Derby, Summer Front in the Miami Mile, Obviously in the San Simeon, Lady of Shamrock in the Santa Barbara, and I had been waiting for Game On Dude's appearance in the Charles Town Classic for several weeks now.  After dinner out on Friday we were up early to head to the Magic Kingdom.  But before we left I went online to make my investments for Saturday's races.  When I checked the programs I found that Departing had drawn the far outside post, #13, for the Illinois Derby and while I felt he was much the best of his rivals I just didn't want to take the chance without actually handicapping the rest of the field, so I passed that one.  The weather for South Florida was supposed to be a ton of rain with heavy storms so I thought there was an excellent chance the Grade 3 Miami Mile would come off the turf.  I wasn't sure what his connections would do in that case, so I decided to pass the Summer Front race as well.  So I doubled the bet on Obviously - it was his first back since the Breeders' Cup and he was sprinting, not going the mile distance he had proven so effective at.  I tripled the bet on Lady of Shamrock who had not shown her usual big kick in her season debut a month ago, and I made Game On Dude my "best" of the day with a "prime time" investment. 

At Disney the weather forecast was for 60% chance of rain and the high was supposed to barely hit 70 degrees.  But the weather, while overcast, was comfortable all day and we didn't get a single drop of precipitation....truly a magical day!  When we got home I logged into twinspires and watched the replays from Santa Anita.  First up was the Grade 2 Santa Barbara.  Lady of Shamrock was odds-on, but immediately I was worried.  It was a small group of five and the front-runner, while a longshot at 8/1, had everything her own way and set a :25 and :50 pace.....way too slow for Lady of Shamrock to make her patented late run.  AND she had a new rider, albeit the leading rider Rafael Bejarano, who had her in the back.  But as they approached the far turn he had her in gear and she was gobbling up ground.  As they spun out of the turn she was in second and he had to choose to swing outside - and give up a length or two, or hug the rail and try to slip through.  He took the ground-saving route and came to the neck of the front-runner when suddenly she had to check sharply and he took her up, losing two lengths or more.  She re-gathered herself and came again, but it was too late and she was a length and a half behind on the wire.  But immediately the INQUIRY sign went up.  It was a no brainer, even though the stewards took five minutes to watch the tape, and she was awarded first place, and I had my first winner of the weekend! 

In the Grade 3 San Simeon Obviously was the 9/5 favorite and broke slowly from the gate.  I figured that since he was normally a front-runner going a route of ground, he would track and finish in this sprint.  But as soon as he got his legs under him he was rushed to the lead.  OK, so he will set the pace and last because of his route ability I thought.  He led all the way down the hill, into the lane and into the final fifty yards before being caught in the final strides, second.  When the replay finished it was a little after 9 pm and the Grade 2 $1.5 Million Charles Town Classic was 27 minutes from post time.  So I watched "The Princess Bride" with my daughter Julie and waited.  My only concern about the race was that because Charles Town is a 6-furlong "bull ring" track, the normally two-turn mile and a eighth distance would now be THREE turns and more of the race would be run on the turns.  Wouldn't seem to be a big deal, but as Christina Blacker had pointed out on HRTV on Thursday, these quality horses normally did not spend this much time running on their left lead, the normally "weaker" of the two legs, so you couldn't know with any certainty how they would handle the trip.  But, I was encouraged that Hall of Fame jockey Mike Smith had been quoted that he was looking forward to riding because he'd grown up riding on such configurations.  He was the master on the front end and Game On Dude scored comfortably as the day's "BEST!"  WHOOOO HOOOOO! 

Two for three on the day.  Ironically when I checked the headlines on Sunday morning, Departing had crushed the Illinois Derby field and the Miami Mile had remained on the turf where Summer Front ran away from his rivals.....sigh, even though they were short-price favorites, it would have been nice to be 4-for-5 instead of 2-for-3 :)  We spent the day with Brad and Lauren and went out to a mid-afternoon dinner with Lauren's parents.  Then we headed for home.

When we got home I checked into twin spires to watch the replay of the only race that interested me, the Grade 3 Ben Ali on Keeneland's synthetic main track.  I found it interesting that one year ago the Ben Ali had been won by Wise Dan in a track record-setting performance that set him up for his Horse of the Year campaign, and that I had picked/bet on him WHILE WE WERE IN ORLANDO!  Well, Wise Dan had run last week over the Keeneland turf winning the Grade 1 Maker's Mark 46 Mile.  So, he wasn't running today, but his older brother Successful Dan was running and figured to be the favorite.  He had the same connections as Wise Dan, and while a seven-year-old, he'd only been out eleven times and was a perfect 4-for-4 over the Keeneland surface.  He always has physical issues, but when he comes to the track he is very talented.  So I knew he wasn't "prepping" today, he was "live" and he loved the surface.  He went off at an inflated 4-5 price which was stealing - as was the race itself.  The other riders for some reason not only let him have the uncontested lead, but allowed him to cake-walk through a :25 and change quarter and a :50 and change half mile.  There was no way he'd be caught in the stretch, especially with his perfect record over the track.  One of my favorite turf runners, Boisterous, made a late run to make the stretch finish "interesting," but there was no catching my pick.  Successful Dan won, and I cashed for nearly $20 to end 3-for-4 on a great weekend!