Saturday April 13
Not Like Last Week, But What A THRILLING Finish!
After the big start to the summer last Saturday, followed by a 3-for-4 week of selective handicapping, I thought I was well on my way to yet another big day when I won the opener at Calder in a very tight photo finish. Bear's Spirit was first off the claim for Team Calabrese, and that is a 27% win angle (though I'd swear they win more often when first off the claim locally). But as they came through the stretch he couldn't seem to get by the "other" horse. As they flashed by me as I stood at the rail at the finish line I wasn't sure. The slow motion replays still gave me no clue. But, I got the photo.....with a double investment I thought, "here we go!" That was a little before 1 pm.
The next winning ticket and video entry didn't come until after 3:30 pm! At Keeneland I was second best at 4/1 with a first-time starter with Joel Rosario on board; then no where to be found fifth at Tampa with a Jamie Ness-Daniel Centeno, first-off-the-claim runner (39%) at 7/5 - wow. Had Rosie Napravnik on a 10/1 longshot, which was Katie Mikolay's second choice, well-beaten 8th. I doubled the investment on Tiger at Calder in the 4th - he was 1-5, and didn't hit the board.....wow squared! Keeneland on the turf at 6/1 and Tetradrachm was second best to the favorite.....sigh. 9/1 at Oaklawn and a good third, but still no money. The 4th at Oaklawn had multiple graded stakes placed Nehro facing allowance runners. Easy pickings at 4/5......fifth....wow cubed! And missed at Aqueduct when Verbosity was fifth at 7/5. That is a long sequence of 2 1/2 hours my friends! But I didn't give up and kept the faith knowing that the winners would eventually come. In the opener at Santa Anita I backed the favorite, Master Appeal who had a double Beyer speed figure advantage. But he was five wide into the stretch....still, he was gobbling up ground through the lane, and finally with 100 yards to go he caught the leader and drew clear late. FINALLY, a winner!
I REALLY thought today was going to be the day that Bind realized his potential. He has so much talent but continues to disappoint. He had blistered a second best of 107 works over the Keeneland synthetic and he was bet down to 5/2 in the Grade 3 Commonwealth. But again, he was an even 4th. Disappointed with a triple bet on him. New Englander had let me down three times in a row at Gulfstream - add once at Calder when 4th at 5/2. In the Grade 3 Shakertown at Keeneland, going 5 1/2 furlongs on the turf. I had Something Extra who was bet down from 9/2 in the program to 2/1 at post time. I do NOT like Julien Leparoux as a rider, especially after his ride on Union Rags last year, but he does ride well normally here. He was on my pick from the rail. Saved all the ground into the stretch and then asked for run. There was a seam outside between runners and he moved out, changed his mind, guided him back in, then out, and then in again.....what the? A rail runner, with money-rider Garrett Gomez showed no heistation and shot through the inside when finally Leparoux let the horse run.....a nose short. And THAT my friends is the case against Julien Leparoux, yet again. FINALLY, back in the winner's circle.....this time at Calder with Double Reverse. He was a Marty Wolfson class dropper who looked easily best on paper. It was not "easy" but he won comfortably, and was bet down according to his paper form to 3/5. I had doubled the bet and was just happy to cash again!
Within minutes it was time for the first of my "Prime Time" bets. On Facebook I announced five "BEST" bets of the day, the first being in the Grade 2 Distaff Handicap at Aqueduct. Cluster of Stars looked to lay over the field IF she handled the rise in class into graded stakes company. She was unbeaten in four starts, the last two wire-to-wire. But she'd shown the ability to rate, so either scenario was fine with me. Three of the seven originally slated to run scratched and so I made the power decision to "up the ante" from a "prime time" ($20) investment to a "Bet of the Day" level investment ($30). She broke sharply and was on an easy lead as they hit the far turn. But she was well off the rail and at that point the "other speed" horse (who I thought would be the target for Cluster of Stars) shot through and took the lead, at 15/1! As they turned for home she was still two lengths in front of 'Stars! Oh no! But then her class and ability kicked in. She collared the leader at the 16th pole and drew off as M-U-C-H the best. WHOOO HOOOO!
Now I'm on a roll, or so I thought..... My next pick was a double investment at Santa Anita in their 3rd where Courtside looked loose on the lead. And he was at 6/5. They hit the far turn and the rider had a strong hold on him; I shifted my gaze to the TV two screens over where the Keeneland Grade 1 Madison started and found my runner, Queen's Award. Shifted back to Santa Anita and they were into the lane.....and I had been caught and run by! Seriously? Held second at 6/5, but wow.......Keeneland I was an even 5th at 5/1. Oaklawn I had an 8/1 shot who was in position as they spun out of the far turn, but then he stopped - 6th. In the Runway Stakes down the hill at Santa Anita Upbeat Mood looked loose on an easy lead. And he was all the way down the hill and into the lane at 9/2. But he could not hold off two closers, third. Out to the rail moments later where High Level Jeff was everyone's "best" - he was even money tracking the leaders into the stretch but hung in the final furlong - 3rd. I got back inside just in time for the Grade 1 Jenny Wiley. The filly to beat was Centre Court who was the 8/5 favorite. BUT, she was down on the rail and had Leparoux riding and I was SURE he would get her into trouble. My pick was Daisy Devine with Rosie Napravnik on board. Daisy is a front runner and there looked to be other speed. BUT, I knew she didn't NEED to lead and that if the other riders perceived there to be too much speed, Rosie would grab the lead and be loose on the lead. I was so tickled she was 7/2 and as they hit the backstretch everyone had let her go! Loose in front by daylight on a long rein. They turned for home and she was still clear, but here came Centre Court. I just knew Daisy had a final surge left, but she couldn't withstand the late run of the favorite.....second. Oh that hurt - the $9 (or more payoff) with a triple investment would have cleared me close to $70 - ouch.
I shifted attention to Oaklawn where it was my second "Bet of the Day" and my second Facebook pick. It was the $500,000 Grade 2 Oaklawn Handicap. My pick was defending BC Classic champion Fort Larned. He had made his debut in the Grade 2 Gulfstream Park Handicap and I was ALL AGAINST him that day. It was a one-turn mile and obviously just the first race as a prep for a season of BIG handicap events. That day, right out of the gate Fort Larned dropped jockey Brian Hernandez. I just KNEW that today they were not prepping - he would be 100% fit and ready to score. When I read his trainer quoted as saying his work over the track had been good and he would have "....no excuses..." if he didn't win today I was certain he was a winner. I thought the 1-2 odds were more than fair as they left the gate. He rated, wide, but he was clearly the superior horse so I wasn't worried. They hit the far turn and the local horse who'd won the prep for this streaked through effortlessly on the rail. Hernandez asked Fort Larned to run......and no response. He began really riding and the only response was Fort Larned started swerving around like he was punch-drunk. Not only disappointing, but the $40 win ticket really hurt.....another potential, "sure" $60 gone. It was slim consolation that moments later I won at Tampa. Saintly Love looked beaten for sure with a furlong to go over the Oldsmar turf but came flying home to win on the wire! Glad to have a winner, but it was a minimum bet on an 8/5 favorite.
At this point I was ready to head home. The featured $100,000 Calder Oaks had been taken off the turf, leading to the scratch of my third (of five) "Best" picks on Facebook. But I had a main track selection ready....but he scratched. Wow. I made my last five bets and headed for home. The big decision had been on my "BET of the DAY" in the featured Grade 3 Las Cinegas at Santa Anita. I knew before I even started handicapping when I'd read that one of my favorite fillies, Mizdirection, as running that she would be the bet of the day. She was a multiple graded stakes winner, and unbeaten down the Santa Anita hillside (5-for-5). She'd won the Breeders' Cup Turf Sprint over the course (paying $13.80 with my triple bet!) and was not facing a single graded winner. I was ready to make a "Zenyatta-like" bet of $100 to win. But I had this nagging feeling of "what if" someone went to the lead and forgot to stop or she ran into traffic trouble. So I went back and forth about the amount. When I had earlier taped my picks for the late races I'd settled on a $50 bet and said so on camera. But as it came closer to the time to bet I couldn't shake the feeling that she simply WAS the best. So I split the difference.....I was willing to go beyond $50, but couldn't shake the "better be careful" feeling that kept me from the full $100, so I settled on a $75 win bet. Considering that as I made the bet I had only won four races (it was before the Tampa score), you have to admit that this showed great courage on my part....and faith in my handicapping! So I headed home, changed clothes and Kim and I went to the Panthers game (lost 3-1, empty net goal with less than a minute to go provided the final margin). We got home and I sat down to watch my last five races.....first up was the Grade 1 Blue Grass from Keeneland. It, and the Arkansas Derby today, were the last big preps for the Kentucky Derby. I really liked Todd Pletcher's Palace Malice. Pletcher had been quoted how much he liked him and he'd had troubled trips at the Fair Grounds. I just thought today he could surprise, the way Emollient had last week in the Ashland. As they turned for home he was behind the leader and blew right on by! In mid-stretch he was clear by daylight at 9/2 and I had doubled the bet! But then here came the late running Java's Gold, who had last been seen trying to catch Verrazano in the Tampa Bay Derby. He had the momentum, but could he catch Palace Malice before the wire came up? Sooooo close! Second for Palace Malice. Sigh..... I couldn't believe it, but it had been "that kind of day." Next an allowance on the Santa Anita downhill course. Dixieland Blues had the best figures and had the right running style to catch the dueling front-runners. Sent off at 7/5, she never fired - fifth. Really?
Next on my selection sheet was the Grade 1 Arkansas Derby. I thought the race was a complete toss-up. But I was intrigued with one runner.....here was my comment: "How amazing would it be if a Pletcher-trained, Grade 2 winner at today's 9 furlong distance pays $10? Note that every other race is a rebound win and today is the 'rebound day!' That was the description for Michael Repole-owned, Todd Pletcher-trained Overanalyze. He'd only started once since the fall when he won the Remsen and he was just so-so. If he was going to make the Derby, today had to be the day. And he had the works to say he would run big; and the pattern of win, loss, win, loss, win, loss - today????? He was 4/1 in the program and the crowd made him 7/2 at post time. He was mid-pack but new rider, leading Southern Cal rider Rafael Bejarano had him moving on the turn and I thought, "Uh oh....maybe...." And then he accelerated and quickly opened up and drew off! Y-E-S!!!!!! He paid $9.40 and with my double bet I collected nearly $50! Oh thank you!
Finally, it was time for my "BET of the DAY" But, I was already on the Oaklawn replay page, so I postponed my "BEST" until I watched the final bet of the day, a starter allowance going 14 furlongs in the Oaklawn finale. Flattermejim had won 3 of his last 4 and at this marathon distance; he appeared a standout and was bet to 4/5 favoritism. He was double-digits behind a streaking longshot leader as they turned down the backside, but quickly caught him, and was engaged by the second choice. It was a stirring stretch duel to the final 100 yards when Flattermejim drew clear. I win.....AGAIN! Got back nearly $20.
I flipped channels to the Mizdirection race. The filly has shown the ability to come from well back or wire the field, so no matter how the race shaped up I was pretty confident of her winning, unless something stupid happened......the gates opened and she was easily in front. Ok, I thought. But as they worked their way down the hillside course she allowed a longshot (ironically an uncoupled entry/stablemate) to take the lead and she tracked her. She was, as Trevor Denman called, "breathing down her neck" as they crossed the main track and turned for home. But she was a bit wide into the stretch and suddenly found herself behind by a couple of lengths.......she didn't make up any ground to the furlong pole, and at the sixteenth pole the leader was still going strong.....sigh, just what I was afraid of!
I calculated I would get back $105 on that, and with the Tampa winner, the two from Oaklawn, and Mizdirection tickets, my next trip to the track I will start off with over $180 in winnings! For the day I ended up with 8 wins from 28 selections - 29%; not nearly equal to last week. And for the week I was a combined 12-for-32, over 33%. With a couple of picks tomorrow maybe I can get back to that 40% win level.
Still, even as the day ended without a big profit it had been a good day of racing. Nothing as exciting as winning my "BEST" - especially in a heart-pounding finish with a lot of money on the line :) AND my Facebook picks.....one scratch, one loss and two wins! WHOOO HOOOO!
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