Thursday May 23 - NINE WINS!

Back On Winning Track

I decided on Wednesday to buy the Racing Form and head out to the races on Thursday.  I flirted with the idea of using one of my many numerical handicapping tools - Sartin pace analysis or Klein speed figures - but in the end decided that I am consistently winning races, and on occasion getting good prices, why change what's working?  The only reason I'm not making money is the way I bet my choices.  And as I've always said, that is half the story of winning at the track.  And I've also said that for me, as much as I'd like to win money, I am more focused on being a good handicapper that picks winners.  So I stuck to my own analysis methods which are based on individual race analysis with different angles for different circumstances.  And today it paid off handsomely!  I won with 45% of my picks - that is impressive! 

I won the first bet of the day when I went against the favorite at Churchill Downs.  I backed Excessiveness who was coming off a powerful maiden win at Keeneland, and while I usually look for last-out maiden winners to regress, trainer Michael Maker has been on such a roll I felt like that last race win (the first start under his care) might be a harbinger of better efforts to come.  I was surprised that the favorite was 3/5 and even looked at her as the race was underway - did I miss something?  But after a glance I felt I made the right choice, and when they hit the top of the lane jockey Rosie Napravnik asked Expressiveness for her best and she blew by the favorite and won under wraps!  I missed when I doubled the bet on the favorite in the Calder opener and King Khalifa broke down on the far turn.  But I bounced right back with two straight wins.  The first was at Belmont when Bella Epoque wired the field just as I anticipated she would......was irritated I didn't invest more.  And then scored at Calder when Ms Bloomfield High became the latest first-off-the-claim winner for Team Calabrese.  The numbers say they win 43%, but it seems a LOT higher here at Calder!  I doubled the bet on her and I am off to a 3-for-4 start to the day! 

I was so surprised when Big Screen did NOT win the 2nd at Belmont.  Not only did he look much the best on paper; not only was he the cover picture-story of the Form; but the field was reduced to three horses with scratches!  He was a fair 2/5 considering only two horses to beat, and I looked at the 2/1 second choice and really thought he was no threat.  Who would have figured that a horse who was WINLESS since 2011 would get the best of the favorite?  And that win two years ago came at 34/1!  Wow....racing, you gotta love it :)  No worries, came right back to score in a 2-year-old MSW at Churchill.  Teardrop was sent off as a low-priced favorite in spite of making her debut, then broke outward and slowly spotting the field about five lengths in a 5 furlong dash.  Rosie Napravnik gathered her, got her into stride, swung four wide on the turn and blew by them all to win by daylight!  When I cashed this ticket  was off to a four-for-six start to the day!

Disappinted when Tiger - another Team Calabrese horse - was second best at Calder, but scored right back at Churchill when Bernata made a dramatic run from the back of the pack to score. 

For the first time today I lost two in a row when I was a very close 6th at Calder and third at Belmont.  The 7th at Calder was going to be my BET of the DAY and I'd decided as I pulled into the parking lot that it was a $50 win bet.....but my pick was scratched.  So was a second horse so before I scratched the race off my list I re-examined the remaining runners.  The Team Calabrese entry, Majestic Express looked much the best of the field.  I doubled down on him and he blew by the leaders turning for home and won easily, motored down on the wire!  WHOOO HOOO! 

Missed two in a row again - back-to-back fourth place runs at Calder and Belmont.  I had one more live play before I planned to head for home, and it turned out to be my third winner locally.  The finale at Calder was scheduled for the turf, but as is the practice at Calder with a beautiful sunny summer day we were OFF the turf because it rained yesterday, wow (as a point of reference it was raining TODAY at Belmont and all the turf races went on as scheduled).....but anyway, Swinger's Party looked appealing to me on either surface.  In two of her last three races she'd faced graded stakes winners Live Lively and Emollient.  And as I wrote in my notes, "....there is no one like that in here...."  She went right to the front and never looked back! 

I had six late bets and headed home to watch the replays on HRTV later.  In the first of the late races Malibu Queen at Belmont became the second selection of mine to break down and not finish the race - what are the odds?  But in my BEST BET of the Day, as it turned out because of the Calder scratch, Ghost Is Clear romped at Churchill Downs.  I initially was skeptical of her, but when I read Byron King's analysis - and she was his best - I was not only going to make her a bet, but because of her big class edge I made her my best.  She was bet down to 4/5, which I thought was a fair price considering.  Collected nearly $30 for the investment :)  I was a very good third at 11/1 in the Churchill finale - good bet, no win.  And then won my last race of the day at Hollywood when Tribal Chatter was the narrowest of photo finish winners at 3/1 as Brad Free's "Best"....the winning ticket was worth more than $40 and insured a winning day!  On the day I won nine of twenty, an amazing 45%!  Off to a good start to the Memorial Day weekend and I'm looking forward to the multiple graded stakes over the weekend.

Preakness Weekend

May 17 - 19

As the weekend approached I was soooooo excited!  For the racing, I was very excited about the back-to-back big days of racing and what I anticipated to be the "Bet of the Month" but even more so it was going to be a "Disney Weekend" as we were heading to Orlando on Saturday to spend three days with "the kids" while finishing off our Disney tickets with two fun-filled days at the theme park. 

Because of the Disney trip, the only chance to spend a full day at the races was on Friday, Black-Eyed Susans Day.  So I handicapped the stakes races on Wednesday and then all of the tracks on Thursday before heading out for a full day at Calder Friday. 

I got there in time to film my video intro and some clips for Saturday's selections then it was to the rail to watch the first pick of the day Noble Prince in the Calder opener.  My pick was Noble Prince who was 2/1 in the program.  He was lightly raced and dropping in class from a $16K 2L spot to today's $10K event.  I thought he'd gun to the front and run away with it.  And indeed he did.  He was comfortably in front as they hit the turn with about a length lead and I swear I heard announcer Bobby Newman call, "....the favorite opens up...." as he drew clear in the lane and won under wraps.  From my vantage point on the rail I did not have a good view of the tote board and as I headed inside I glanced over my shoulder to see what kind of price I could expect.  I didn't have my glasses on, but I could clearly tell that the tote board did NOT show a double-digit odds figure (like 8/5 or 9/5), and although I figured it had to be 2/1, it looked like a 5/1....which of course was not possible, since he had been the program favorite and what I was sure I had heard.  But when I got inside, oh my, yes, it was five-to-one and the pay-out was a huge $13.60.....I cashed for nearly $35 to start the day!  NICE! 

And it was a good thing I did as that score at a little before 1 pm was the last ticket I would cash until nearly 4 pm.....that's a LONG haul my friend.  But through most of that eight race streak - including three seconds - I knew I wasn't taking a financial pounding because of the big score and only three added-money investments in the series.  As is so often the case I was right there with nearly every one of the horses and lost in nearly every way possible.  The first loss was ironic because in m comments on Talent and Channel in the 3rd at Pimlico I wrote, "....looks a very likely short-priced winner in spite of her tendency to quit in deep stretch....."  She was 6/5 and clear with a 16th of a mile to go, still in front with 100 yards to go, but was caught inside the final fifty yards.  In the 6th at Pimlico I broke five lengths behind the field; in the 5th at Belmont I rallied from way back to be second....sigh.... Finally in the third at Churchill I scored again.  It was a Maiden Special for two-year-olds and Rope had finished second in a photo in his debut while over five clear of the show horse.  He dueled to mid-stretch and then drew off at 3/2.  Then came the back-to-back races which basically cost me any chance at a black-type finish betting-wise.  I tripled the bet on Value Trap at Calder and on Drogue at Arlington.  It wasn't like I was seeing anything the crowd wasn't as they were sent off at 1/5 and 8/5....but both struggled home in SIXTH!  Wow.  But then I hit the best streak of the day - FIVE WINS IN A ROW!!!!! 

The opener at Hollywood was DRF Handicapper Brad Free's "best" - Night Dance was a class dropper from the Mike Mitchell barn and was expected to wire the field - easily!  I doubled the bet, but the crowd pounded him down to odds-on - still, I was happy to cash!  On the Black-Eyed Susans card I had two "BEST" bets and it came next in the Jim McKay Turf Sprint.  One of my favorite turf sprinters for the last few years has been Todd Pletcher's Bridgetown.  But after having a clear lead in last year's Derby Day undercard sprint I've been reluctant to bet him.  Today I went against him with the 15-time stakes winning Ben's Cat.  There looked to be a lot of speed to set up his stalk and pounce style.  But as the day wore on I began to second guess myself, and even considered if not changing to Bridgetown at least an exacta.  But with ten minutes to post I convinced myself I'd been right originally and stuck to my original plan.  Sure enough, just as I had envisioned it, there was a speed duel and though Ben's Cat was farther back than I had anticipated he blew by them all inside the final 100 yards to score under wraps - and I had been all over him with a PRIME TIME investment.  Only thing disappointing was that the crowd also bet him heavily into the even-money favorite.  Still, I cashed for over $40. 

Two in a row!  My third win was in another turf sprint.  This on was the 9th and final at Calder.  My pick, Cappachino Gal was stuck on the "Also Eligible" list and would need at least one scratch to get in.  There were four.  And she dominated as she drew off under a chilly hand-ride at 3/5.  Less than five minutes later the second at Hollywood I scored my FOURTH in a row when Pincelada easily went wire to wire.  I was afraid she would run like Talent and Channel earlier because she always seemed to quit late, but I was hoping at 5 1/2 furlongs that would NOT be the case.....she had her lead cut into late, but she was too far gone - WINNER! 

The five-race win streak concluded when I won the 8th at Belmont with Notmyfirstime.  Besides Ben's Cat all the other wins had been minimum investments, but I did double the bet here to collect nearly $20.  Add the two triple-investment losses back-to-back earlier with the betting decisions in the win streak and my chances of winning cash for the day were slim to none.....especially when in what I thought was the "BEST" of the day, Emollient did not win the Black-Eyed Susans Stakes.  Though I truly believe I had the right filly.  She was the most talented and was bet to 4/5 (which I thought was a fair price).  But she likes to be right up on the lead and as the gates sprung open she went straight to her knees and spotted the field at least five lengths.  For all intents and purposes the race was over...she struggled to finish sixth after making a courageous mid-race move to get into contention.  After running second at Churchill I made eleven late bets and headed home. 

Kim and I went out for deep dish pizza (in celebration of my Jenny Craig weigh-in earlier this morning.....after walking over 30 miles, yes THIRTY miles this week I lost weight again to run my total since March 1 to nearly 17 pounds!  So delighted!  When we got home watched the replays.  I was disappointed when my triple investment in the Very One Stakes at Pimlico, Sweet Cassiopiea did no fire - 6th at 9/5, but happy when my "best" at Churchill, Funny Proposition scored at 4/5 with a triple bet.  Right back in the next bet with a third winner at Hollywood with Captain Corrigan (though a minimum bet again!).  Of the last eight I had but a single winner - at Arlington Sugar Kate came from WAAAAYYY back to get her nose down on the wire just in time in the 6th.  I had doubled the bet and scored for nearly $30, but the rest of them were 5th, 6th, 4th, 10th (wow), 6th and 5th.  For the day my handicapping was excellent - ten wins from thirty-one selections - 32% WINS!  But the betting didn't match and I lost a little money.  I wasn't worried however as I was CERTAIN I was going to have a good day Saturday. 

I spent Saturday morning running my car to Goodyear as my back tire had a leak and I needed to replace both back tires - at $350+ per tire, ouch!  And I ran out to Calder to cash my tickets and bet the six stakes races from the Preakness card.  We got away for Orlando a little before one pm and met the kids at the hotel.  Brad's friend Randy got us half-off with our hotel room at the Port Orleans-French Quarter resort where Julie bunked in with us, while Brad and Lauren had their room in another building.  By five pm we were at the Magic Kingdom and having dinner at Tony's (from "Lady and the Tramp!"). 

I didn't know how the first five races went, but I was able to watch my "Best of the Month" - Orb - in the Preakness live via twinspires.com on my phone while having dinner.  And it was stunning to me that not only didn't win, but didn't even hit he board - 4th.  It was a HUGE disappointment.  But, nothing could spoil the evening with the kids at Disney!  The castle show was awesome and the fireworks were spectacularly magical!  See tomorrow's journal for pics and video.  When I got back to the hotel I watched the other five races and was disappointed to only have one win.  But at least the win was in my other "BEST" of the day when Summer Applause came grinding through the stretch to score in the Grade 3 DuPont Distaff. 

Back to the races next week or weekend.  Sunday was a glorious day at the Animal Kingdom park - just the best!  Everything we did was a "first" including getting soaked on the Kali River Rapids ride and then daring to ride the thrilling roller-coaster adventure ride, Expedition Everest!  Be sure to check out the photos from the weekend in tomorrow's journal!

Saturday May 11

Mother's Day Weekend

Opening Day At Monmouth Park

The weekend got off to a great start when Kim and I headed down to the Mai Kai Polynesian Restaurant Friday night.  With Sunday being Mother's Day, Kim likes to go out for dinner to celebrate, but she's not big on fighting the crowds.  We talked about going somewhere for something more than just a meal, so I suggested this venue.  And, we were real "party animals" by booking the late dinner and show!  We didn't get home until nearly 11 pm!  That's pretty awesome for us :)  We arrived about 8 pm, went to the bar, which is like sitting in the hull of an old wooden schooner.  Dinner was at 8:30 with the Polynesian dancers starting their performance at 9:30.  Those girls can move their hips, bringing all kinds of fantasy thoughts to mind!  And the fire dancers were pretty amazing to watch as well.  We had someone take our picture out in the gardens by a tiki statute.  A great way to kick off the weekend. 

Then Saturday I headed out to Calder to play the races.  I was a little unsure about how the day would go as the weather forecast for everywhere, other than at Calder was for not only rain, but heavy showers.  I felt bad for the people who manage the Jersey Shore facility - you always look forward to Opening Day and I'm sure that there would have been a huge crowd at Monmouth.  It was rainy to start the day, and then monsoons late in the card really put a damper, I'm sure on the crowd.  But they had a record opening day handle, so that was a positive.  My first two selections were the openers at Churchill and Monmouth.  I doubled the bet on Miss Anna Destiny at Churchill and had a minimum bet on Call Me Sweetheart at Monmouth.  As I walked away from the teller he called me back because he thought he'd given me the wrong track....sure enough, he'd given me Pimlico instead of Monmouth.  We made the exchange and I settled into a front row seat in the "Winner's Edge" simulcast area to watch my races.  I had the #1 horse at Churchill and she broke slowly, rushed up - not a good sign - then faded as they hit the turn.  A stretch duel developed and then it hit me.....I had the #1 AT MONMOUTH!  At Churchill I had #2 Miss Anna Destiny and SHE was battling through the stretch.  AND she WON!  What a great realization!  And a winner to kick off the day!  Whooo hooo! 

Less than five minutes later they broke from the gate at Monmouth.  The main track at the Jersey Shore seems to always play to speed, and what I liked about Call Me Sweetheart was that she had the rail and appeared to be the quickest of the speeds.  Sure enough as the gates opened, who was immediately in front? 

That's right, #1 Call Me Sweetheart.  She opened up early and was never threatened, crossing the line at least five clear of the runner-up.  She paid a nice $7.40 and I cashed my two tickets for nearly $40. 

A very nice way to start the day.  And then the parade of seconds began.....yes, just like Thursday.  At Belmont I had Lubango, the even money favorite.  He was confidently ridden just off the lead and you could tell that the rider felt he had the field measured.  He restrained the horse to the top of the lane, let him go, but couldn't run with the rail horse who rallied to draw clear late.....second.  At Calder I had a nice price play with Rhubarb Sauce at 6/1 on the grass.  Led to the final 100 yards then gave way to the favorite, second again.  At Monmouth I knew I was in trouble when my pick tried to rally at 4/5 - 3rd over he speed-favoring track.  At Churchill I moved quickly into the lead as they turned for home with Poliziano at 2/1, but could not withstand the late rally of the winner - SECOND AGAIN!  I tripled the bet on Firstotheline at Monmouth.  She had been a good second in her debut at Gulfstream for Todd Pletcher AGAINST THE BOYS, then came back to draw off convincingly while the runner-up was nine clear of the show.  Joe Bravo had the mount - looked like an obvious winner.  She broke slowly, was checked halfway down the back side, made a move into the lane, then was stopped behind a wall of horses, and finally had to shift out five wide to rally.  It was amazing she got third.  At Arlington the losing continued when J.Pa was the 8/5 favorite but no closer than 5th.  Belmont, SECOND again at 3/2 and then back-to-back longshots who ran to their prices.....6th at 7/1 and 7th at 5/1.  I closed the long winless streak with another main-track-only pick at Belmont who was a fair 7/2, only to run 5th.  I was questioning my time to stay at the races when FINALLY I cashed a ticket.  I was back at Monmouth and it was Pletcher-Bravo again.  Silver Lining John was the 4/5 favorite based on his debut at Gulfstream where he was best-of-the-rest second at even money.  He rated right off the leader to the top of the lane, battled to inside the 16th pole and then edged clear. I didn't care he only paid $3.60, I was glad to be able to cash a ticket, any ticket! 

I came right back to win my second in a row at Calder when Strong Fire rallied through the stretch to be up in time at 2/1.  I cashed those two tickets for over $30 and thought I was on my way to a comeback. 

Well, yes, but not yet......At Belmont another Todd Pletcher debut runner was 5/2 - broke slowly and was third on the wire.  At Calder I doubled the bet on Street Girl who was half of an entry on the turf.  But into the stretch it was her entry-mate who was on a clear lead, only to be caught in the final strides by the favorite.  That double investment at 2/1 would have been a nice payoff!  And I was no where to be found at Arlington in their 5th with a price play.  But finally I hit paydirt again, and this time made a wise investment decision.  At Belmont my pick was #1 Joe Alan, and my comments were .... "...confidently raised first off the claim, must only run down the faint-hearted favorite...."  Because I was afraid there was the chance the favorite would wire he field I was only in for the minimum.  As I walked to the window to bet I was surprised to see Joe Alan was the favorite; must be because Joel Rosario is on board.  Then I noticed, the front-running program favorite scratched.  Quickly looked at the Form - hmmm, looks like Joe Alan has the rail and the front to himself.  So I doubled the bet.  And he was an easy wire-to-wire winner!  GO ME!  Got back over $20! 

 

My pick at Churchill was way to far back early in the 8th, late running fifth, and then I won again.  But this time a not-so-bright decision.  #4 Micromanage was the 8/5 program favorite, and I thought deservedly so.  He'd won impressively in his Saratoga debut for Todd Pletcher.  Both of those facts said he had some talent.  In his next two starts he took on some of the best of his generation with back-to-back starts in graded stakes.  Today he was back into a non-winners-of-one allowance.  MUCH easier spot.  I planned to triple the bet.  I looked at the TV monitor and it was a shot of the finish line where it was POURING. The picture didn't change for the longest time....no paddock shots, no horses coming onto the track.  And now it was four minutes to post.  All the while the #1 was being pounded in the wagering at odds-on and Micromanage, who I thought was easily the obvious pick was 4/1!  The rain, the cold betting action, and no horses on the track all spooked me.  I thought, I'd be foolish to back away if he wins - but all the signs are saying this is NOT a good bet.  I compromised with myself.  I made a double investment.  The horses came on to the track and went right to the gate.  Right away Micromanage could not find any way to save ground and was at least five wide through the first turn.  All the way down the backstretch he could not get over, still wide.  Wide through the final turn and at least five wide into the lane.  He lost ground but was running late - P H O T O  F I N I S H!!!!!!

When the photo came up, I was the winner!  NOW I wish I'd stuck with my bet.  But honestly, I still think it was the smartest thing to do.  Collected nearly $35, so I'm cool with that.  I ran 4th, 3rd, and 8th with my next three.  I had two added investment races coming up and then with two weather-related scratches it was going to be nearly an hour until the next pick, so I made them my last two on-track investments.  First up at Hollywood, the Came Home Stakes.  Let Em Shine looked like the clear controlling speed and to be long gone from the rail.  Never threatened at even money.....cashed for over $20! 

Minutes later Work All Week looked easily best at Arlington.  He'd won his last two starts by a combined nearly twenty lengths in wire-to-wire fashion with clearly the best pace times, so I tripled the bet figuring he'd be a short-odds favorite.  Until right up to post time he was 2/1 and 5/2....I was licking my lips savoring a nice score.  Some of the crowd came to their senses and he went off at 8/5.  LONG GONE!  WHOOO HOOOO.  My ticket was worth nearly $40! 

When I got home I was able to watch the rest of the races on HRTV.  Scandalo ran second at Belmont.....Prime Number ran SECOND at Hollywood; Jersey Kiss was 5th at Monmouth (despite having won 3 of his last 4 and being 5/4-0-1 at the distance...wow);  And then it was my best bet of the day......Scarlett Strike in the Grade 3 Senorita Stakes on the grass at Hollywood.  She broke from post 8 and could never save any ground going a flat mile.  Late running, oh-so-close second....yes, S E C O N D again! 

I had posted four picks on Facebook as "Bests" of the day.  THREE of them scratched and now a photo-finish second :(  But the day ended on a high note when at Arlington I won again.  Earlier on the card I had picked a horse because it was a debut runner for trainer Larry Rivelli who wins 21% with those; and he had one of my favorite front-running riders in E.T. Baird on board - and they win 32% together.  That one scratched, but here in the 11th, first time starting She's Intoxicated was in the gate.  The crowd wasn't fooled and saw the same thing I did....she was the 3/2 favorite and won handily!  My ticket is worth a nice $25! 

And in my final play of the day, No Silent won the 8th at Hollywood.  It wasn't easy however.  It was a turf sprint and she broke slowly, came up the rail, was blocked into the stretch.....couldn't move outside, then at the 16th pole a seam opened between horses and top rider Rafael Bejarano pushed her through.  She rallied but so was a clear-running closer on the outside.....PHOTO FINISH!  But I was in front on the wire.....YES!  I had doubled the bet and some how the crowd allowed her to go off at 2/1 in spite of the fact that in three different appearances HERE at this distance on this course she was coming off a layoff, like today; with Bejarano, like today; and those had produced two wins and a photo-2nd.  I'll take the money! 

For the day I closed with a nice flurry of winners to push my totals for the day to ten out of 32 for a nice 31% win rate.  I nearly got back to even, and almost any one of the NINE runner-up finishes on the day would have put me over the top.  I'm sure if the "BEST" bets of the day had run I would have been a profitable player on the day.....shoot, just the Scarlet Strike near-miss would have made me a break-even for the day.  But, after the oh-so-slow start, it turned out to be a good day with a lot of winning picks!

S E C O N D

Thursday May 9

Yes, that about sums up the day.  The first sign of "trouble" came while I was handicapping on Wednesday.  As I went through the cards I was thinking, so many conditioned claimers who were inconsistent and a lot of muddled pace scenarios.  I found about a dozen and a half races from four race cards, but in retrospect I probably should have only had about ten races that were playable.  Even with stretching my races with an "edge" I still found myself with a lot of time between races.  The day started well enough - I was second at 3/1 in the opener at Churchill and then a miserable 6th at 4/5 with a horse at the Downs who had won 3 of his last 4 races and was 5/4-0-1 at the 8 1/2 furlong distance.....go figure.  Then I won back-to-back added investments at Calder in the 2nd and 3rd, thanks to Team Calabrese.  In the second #5 Winking Star was moving from turf to dirt, a 27% move for trainer Kirk Ziadie and owner Frank Calabrese....off a layoff - 39%; and the rider was winning 46% for them.  Easy-peasy-pie! 

Right back in the third where I tripled the investment on #2 Credit Voucher who was first off the claim (an amazing 41% angle) and the same jockey.  This was the DRF "Best" of the day.  He too was the easiest of winners. 

Suddenly I'm 2-for-4 and ahead for the day.  I guess it was a good day to head to the races I was thinking......not so fast my friend!  The first race at Churchill that I'd lost earlier was with a Wesley Ward 2-year-old maiden, and they never lose....really.  But I'd read that he had found a young apprentice rider that he liked.  So I went along.  Well in the opener the Ward juvenile broke slowly, and in a 2yo race that is the kiss of death, the distances are so short and it's simply who is quickest out of the gate that usually carries the race.  Not a good sign I thought, but I'm willing to give the bug rider a pass.  Well, in the third it was another Ward 2yo and again he broke slowly....5th at 9/5.  I'm done with the new rider!  At Belmont it was raining, but that was ok because I liked the main-track-only Regal Warrior.  So did the crowd, at 6/5.  But he was a dismal 8th.  Then at Calder on the turf I was second with Fightingforfreedom at 7/2.  Right back to be second, again, at Churchill at 7/5.  Missed with my "upset of the day" at Belmont at 5/1.  Now it was going to be an hour to my next race, so I headed home.  I won for the third time with a triple investment at Hollywood.  Bodaway was tons the best - but at a cheap 3/5.  That was it for the day.  Second at Belmont, second at Churchill with my "best", SECOND AGAIN at Churchill with a triple investment....wow.  And two off the board finishes at Hollywood closed down the racing.  This was not what I was hoping for as a weekday diversion!  Oh well, so it goes with racing :)  Headed back out on Saturday for Opening Day at Monmouth Park.

Sunday May 6

WINNER - WINNER, Chicken Dinner!

So I had absolutely no plans for playing the races today, but then this morning I got a phone call from my oldest son Jeff.  He had made it to the races in time to hit the Derby winner, but later in the evening he had lost a race at Penn National when his odds-on favorite selection broke down when clear on the lead at the 16th pole in mid-stretch.  Frustrating to say the least, so he was heading out today. 

He asked if I'd handicapped for the day and when I said no he asked if I knew that there were not one, not two, but three stakes races on the Belmont card.  I was surprised to hear that so as we spoke I looked at the entries for the day.  Lo and behold one of those runners was a standout.  So after we got off the phone I went through the other tracks I follow and found a second standout at Betfair Hollywood Park.  Not only did they look like near-certain winners, but appeared to be "slam-dunks" / singles in multi-race wagers and thus worthy of a "prime time" investment.  The first, based on post time, was the selection at Hollywood.  Teddy's Promise is the best female sprinter on the west coast.  She was my "best" a week ago Saturday on Gold Rush Day, but scratched out.  Which I was not surprised because the distance that day was 7 1/2 furlongs, which might have been just outside her comfort zone.  Today this multiple graded stakes winner was entered in an overnight stakes.  This so much reminded me of the Comma to the Top race yesterday and I thought maybe, just maybe I'd get an overlaid price.  Not sure if the crowd had learned it's lesson from Saturday or something else they saw, but Teddy's Promise was pounded down to 2/5.  That still was a "free money giveaway" promotion to me.  A five furlong race for a sprinter of this quality was almost like telling the owner and trainer, "Hey, want to have a five furlong workout in the morning for nothing, or how about we pay you $50K to workout in front of the crowd in company?"  Duh, hello.  Teddy's Promise broke sharply, let a longshot run with her for a quarter of a mile and then kissed the field goodbye.  She won by daylight with the rider never moving a muscle, geared down through the final sixteenth.  The $2.80 payout was small, but it was an easy payday for this handicapper! 

Next up was the third of the feature stakes at Belmont.  The You Go West Girl Stakes was set for a mile on the turf and the favorite was multiple graded stakes winning Dayatthespa.  The race was carded as a prep for a state-bred stakes in a month, but Dayatthespa had her eyes set on the Grade 1 Just A Game the week following that stakes.  Trainer Chad Brown and jockey Javier Castellano are a dynamic team, especially on the turf and this filly could win this race without even working hard, in my opinion.  My only concern was that if one of the longshots had targeted THIS race as their "big race" would Dayatthespa be asked for her best and/or be ready to give her best off the long layoff?  In the end I thought she simply was better even without being required for a full blown effort.  As they hit the far turn one of the other fillies decided they would test her.  While Castellano was merely handriding her around the turn, the other jockey was asking his mount for her best.  She ranged up to Dayatthespa's hip and threatened to make a race of it.  Castellano looked over his shoulder, as if to say, "Really?"  He shook the reins and it was all over.  She cruised through the lane in an open gallop and I was a two-time winner on the day. 

Again, the price was miniscule, but the $25 payout meant another "free money" promotion to me.  AND, with the two wins and $13 profit on the day I not only took my weekend win total above 30% (12-for-37, 32.4%) but I had also erased the tiny loss on Saturday and made weekend a $50 profitable experience.  WHOOOO HOOOO!

May 4 - Kentucky Derby Day

It was a full day of racing today as I headed out to Calder for the Kentucky Derby Day card.  I had nearly 30 selections from four tracks, with an emphasis on the Churchill card and it's multi-stakes race undercard.  On this day last year I was surrounded by five lovely ladies......

And while it was a great experience, on that day I cashed a single ticket.....in the last race of the day!  I was hoping for better today!  If you had asked me a little after 2 pm if I thought it would be, the answer would have been an emphatic NO!  Racing started at 10:30 am in the opener at Churchill Downs where Apropos looked MUCH the best and was bet to 4/5.  He took the lead at the 16th pole and I kept waiting for him to draw off, but then was going to be happy he'd surged to the lead when he was caught in the final strides by a rail-skimming longshot.....second - a harbinger for the remainder of the day!  I ran 4th at 3/1 in the 3rd at Churchill Downs as the rains started to fall.  The only good thing about the rain was as I watched HRTV there was a report that Shug McGaughey said he would scratch Point of Entry from the Grade 1 Woodford Reserve and his showdown with my BEST of the day Wise Dan....I would be upping the bet if this happened!  So I headed out and arrived at Calder with plenty of time before my first live bet.  It came in the 5th in a nw1x allowance for three year olds.  Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert did not have a Derby runner this year, but Code West had been under consideration for the Derby until a week ago, so he was a huge favorite here.  He was trapped on the rail until late and then came flying....PHOTO FINISH!  Second, again.  Sigh.....At Calder Bea Wildcat looked to spring the upset by taking the field wire to wire in their opener.....third in a close finish.  The rains in Louisville were really coming down at this point, and I was (a) so sorry for the over 150,000 fans who were all dressed up for the big day and (b) so glad we were not there this year!  The 6th was the Grade 3 Turf Sprint and with all the rain I reexamined my selection in Icon Ike.  He looked best under normal circumstances by speed seemed to be holding.  But as I looked at the front runners I didn't like them.  The only horse I would NOT have bet won at nearly 12/1.  As I looked back at his form in his native Brazil, where he had gone unbeaten, they were ALL over heavy or soft turf courses.  How did I not see this?  Wow.  I lost again with my first play of the summer at Arlington where it looked like Izzaeven was a sure winner, only to be nailed late, second, again.  And then at Calder Dreaming of Jimmy was loose on the lead until they hit the stretch and then he backed up to third.  By this time it was after 2 pm and I wondered if I was ever going to cash a ticket?  But I kept telling myself that the odds were in my favor and I had some big bets coming up.  FINALLY a winner.  The 3rd at Belmont was a maiden special turf route and I liked Todd Pletcher's Denali Causeway.  First, his name appealed to me as we'd been in Denali National Park a couple of years ago - landed on a glacier high in the mountains that day......

but anyway, Pletcher was a 37% winner with second time maidens.  As they came through the stretch it was a nose-to-nose stretch duel.  I was on the inside and as I watched the race I couldn't even see my horse's head on the wire....SOOOO CLOSE!  The photo came up - WINNER! 

Even though I only had the minimum on it, I was happy to finally be on the board.  When I analyzed the Grade 1 Humana Distaff I really liked Aubby K, but decided to go with the price play #4 Emma's Encore.  6th at 8/1 while Aubby K won and paid $9 - another sneak peak into the future as it would turn out.  At Belmont I liked first time starter Crackerjack Jones in the 4th.  His trainer had huge return-on-investment numbers with these types of runners.  Crackerjack broke two lengths behind the field, but recovered and rallied to be second best, missing by less than a length - the start having cost him the win....sigh.  The next race on my card was the 3rd at Hollywood.  This six furlong sprint featured a lot of speed and I landed on Power of Nine.  Not only did he have the right closing style, but he was first off the claim for an outfit that had a solid $2.03 return for every $2 bet on their first-off-the-claim runners.  As they hit the far turn Power of Nine was so far back he wasn't even in the television picture!  But as they turned for home he was coming like a freight train!  He rolled by the leaders and won going away.  Best of all he was 4/1 and I'd doubled the bet!  YES!  I got back $50 and was back in the hunt for the day!  WHOOO HOOO!!!! 

I missed at Belmont with a Pletcher maiden at 4/1 when she was 4th, missed at Calder when even money favorite Defend was a non-threatening 3rd and was very disappointed when double Beyer advantage favorite Lake Maracaibo was caught in the final strides - yes, second again, at 3/2 when I'd tripled the bet.  But, I got my winning mojo back on then.  The string of winners started when I hit my first winner at Arlington.  Card was a debut runner for Michael Stidham who was a 21% winner with jockey E.T. Baird.  Wire to wire at 2/1, cleared over $16.  Then at Churchill Downs I had a "prime-time PLUS" bet in the Grade 2 Churchill Downs Sprint.  I LOVED Delauney.  I was a bit concerned when I noted that Jill Byrnes did not have him in her top three....what the???? But then I thought, like last week I was sold on my pick, BIG TIME, she was wrong.  Delauney tracked Breeders' Cup Sprint champion Trinniberg (who I STILL am not a believer in) to the top of the lane and then drew off to a HUGE score by double-digit lengths.  I was delighted he went off at 9/5 as I had $30 to win on him....AWESOME!  The winning ticket was worth nearly $100! 

I hit my third in a row at Hollywood in the Cool Frenchy Stakes.  And in retrospect I wish I'd hammered this race.  For some reason multiple graded stakes winner Comma to the Top was not only NOT the favorite but was 4/1 throughout the betting. At post time he was better than 2/1.  What is going on?  I thought, am I missing something?  Usually when the crowd is ice cold on such an obvious winner something is amiss.  So I stuck with my original double bet.  He was TONS the best and I was happy to cash for over $30.  But what if I'd gone $50 to win?  Oh what could have been! 

I was shocked in the Grade 3 Ft. Marcy when Speaking of Which - who had been 2nd in the Grade 2 Twilight Derby on Breeders' Cup weekend was dead last at 7/5 at Belmont.  And after missing at Arlington I was oh-so-close in the Calder feature when Canadian Mistress was second by a nose in a photo finish.....yes, second AGAIN!  But then it was time for my BET of the DAY! 

Even when Point of Entry, a multiple Grade 1 winner was going to run, 2012 Horse of the Year Wise Dan was my BEST.  But now with that one out I knew I wanted to up the bet.  The question was how to structure the bet and how much.  Nagging against changing the bet was the short price, low return on my play vs. the negatives of the off going and the fact he was going nine furlongs today and a mile seems to be his best distance on the turf.  I was afraid that he'd go to the front too soon and then not be able to last or that he would not go to the front and another speedster would steal it.  Then I considered an double with Wise Dan - ALL in the Derby, but figured everyone would do that (turned out I was right, it paid $8).  Finally I settled on less than the $100 I wanted to play and went with $75 to win.  Wise Dan sat just behind two leaders, one a cheap speed, and made his move turning for home.  Boy he was impressive, even though the field was not the toughest he's seen.  Won by double digits and my ticket was worth over $120!  Made my day! 

I made my late bets and headed for home to watch the Derby on the big screen.  It was a big disappointment when my "best" at Belmont, Dream Peace, took the lead in the Grade 3 Beaugay and hung late, finishing 3rd.  I was also disappointed in my Derby bet. All week I told Kim I'd settled on Orb, and he was the one I wanted to bet.  But on Wednesday when the Derby post-position draw was held and Verrazano got a perfect draw and was NOT the favorite I decided to make him the bet.  Still, I was unsettled.  I went back and forth between he and Orb and after the Oaks I was seriously considering betting both because I'd profit on the race with a nice return even by splitting the investment.  But finally I decided that as easily as it could be one or the other of these two, it could just as easily be one of eight others - especially with the track being a mud bath.  So I just backed off my bet on Verrazano  Everyone publicly liked Orb and I told several people I wanted him to win.  In spite of being the favorite he won and paid $12 and change.  Verrazano faded to 14th after being third heading for home.  Ironically jockey John Velazquez had picked Point of Entry over Wise Dan, and then watched from the jock's room with the scratch and he'd picked Verrazano over Orb after he'd ridded him to win the Florida Derby....bad day for Johnny V.  I got one more win in my final bet at Arlington when Annie Bellum ran away with their finale.  So for the day I scored with 7 of 27 (nearly 30%) - much better than last year!  I lost less than $5 for the day, and when combined with Oaks day, the weekend was a 10-for-35 handicapping success - 29% - and a profit on the weekend of nearly $40. And like Oaks Day, I was a big winner with my Facebook posting.  Early Saturday I listed four "best bets" - Marketing Mix scratched, I won with Delauney and Wise Dan, and Dream Peace was third - two for three.  If my Facebook friends had bet my bets on those three they would have profited nearly $75!

Friday May 3

For today I only had handicapped the Churchill Downs card and I had come up with eight races on the card that I felt I had an edge in.  Included on that selection list were picks in all six of the featured stakes races - which I had analyzed, and posted online each individual horse in the race.  My first selection was in the 4th, and allowance race and my second selection wasn't until 90 minutes later in the Grade 2 La Trionne, so played the first one via TwinSpires before heading out to the races.  Sweet Shirley Mae was a generous 7/2 but fell way out of contention before making a belated run to be fifth.  My plan had been, since I knew there was going to be a lot of time between races, to handicap the Saturday card while I was at the track.  I had handicapped the entire Derby Day card at Churchill on Thursday, again including individual horse analysis in all seven of their stakes races.  Before the racing began I completed the analysis of both the Calder and Belmont cards.  So that left only Arlington (which had opened today) and Hollywood.  I was not surprised when I got to Calder to find my selection in the La Trionne, Believe You Can was the odds-on favorite.  She had been ultra-impressive all winter and today she was returning to the scene of her greatest victory....she had won the 2012 Kentucky Oaks when I was here with my Mom, my daughter Julie and her cute friend Shelby (see banner photo above).  My filly was tracking the pace and as they spun out of the turn she was asked for her best but she simply flattened out.  It was a stirring stretch duel with the winner being Authenticity - who I had be on at Gulfstream on Florida Derby Day, and she'd run second. 

The seventh race on the program was the Edgewood Stakes, on the turf for three-year-old fillies.  Last year this had proven to be the lone stakes winner I'd had on Oaks Day when I picked Ken & Sarah Ramsey's Stephanie's Kitten.  Ironically today it was another Ramsey-owned filly, Kitten's Dumplings, that I favored.  She had run very well over the winter when she had been second to the very talented Tapicat in the Grade 3 Florida Oaks at Tampa.  As they moved down the backstretch hot-riding Joel Rosario had her well back in the field, but he began making up ground heading into the turn.  As they spun out of the turn and heads turned for home he had her in the clear and with all the momentum.  By the furlong marker he'd collared the leaders and then with powerful strides she drew off to win going away by daylight and under wraps!  My first winner on the day and she paid a very generous $8.40.....with my double investment I collected over $40!  Whooo Hooo! 

Because there was so much time between races, and because I did find many selections I liked at either Arlington or Hollywood, by the time Kitten's Dumplings crossed the finish line I had completed my handicapping.  My original plan to stay until before the featured Oaks now would mean I would be sitting for nearly 3 hours with nothing to do.  So I made my bets for the remaining five race and headed home to watch on the big screen.  I got home with about five minutes to post time for the Grade 3 Eight Belles.  This was a seven furlong sprint for sophomore fillies and as I'd looked over the full field I thought the race was a complete toss-up.  But one filly caught my eye, So Many Ways.  What made me pause first was I recalled when she'd had her 2013 debut at Gulfstream and I had been watching on HRTV.  She had concluded her juvenile season by winning the Grade 1 Spinaway at Saratoga and had passed on the Breeders' Cup.  Her owner Maggie Moss was interviewed that day and talked about how talented she was and that they were hopeful she would make it to the Kentucky Oaks.  Well, she had been beaten that day in a listed stakes, then she was beaten in the Fair Ground Oaks going two turns.  So today she was cutting back to seven furlongs - I like that angle.  And even more, I liked the fact that the Spinaway was a seven furlong sprint.  So here is the LONE GRADE 1 winner at the distance, who's owners are very high on and her program odds were 6/1.  She was my bet.  She had big money rider Garrett Gomez riding today and as they left the gate she was an even bigger price at 7/1.  She too was far back and Gomez saved all the ground through the far turn.  Then he had to swing about eight wide as he began mowing down fillies.  Inside the 16th pole he had all the momentum and it was just a question of if he had enough time to get to the wire first.  Inside the final fifty yards she drew even and surged past just at the wire!  YES!  The toteboard lit up to the tune of $17.40 and I was ready to cash for another $40 plus.  Whooo Hooo x 2!  With this win I had covered all but about $10 of my investments and I still had my two top selections to go - it was looking like I would be a profitable winner on the day! 

The 9th was the Grade 2 Alysheba and I went with Bourbon Courage who was a fair 7/2.  Fourth in an even effort.  The 10th was my BET of the Day - the Grade 2 American Turf.  A turf race for three-year-old colts.  Noble Tune had won his first two races going two turns on the grass in impressive fashion and was my selection last fall in the Grade 1 Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf.  He had been second that day to a Euro when he rallied late to miss by a length.  His comeback race and sophomore debut had been in allowance company at Tampa and he'd won in THE MOST dramatic stretch run I've ever seen in an allowance race, maybe in any race.  He was last with a sixteenth to go, hopelessly out of it, but had somehow exploded through the lane to win.  I thought he was a sure thing today.  I was especially confident because unlike most deep closers who were dependent on a fast pace to set up their late run, he'd shown he had the same punch even when the pace was slow.  Jockey Javier Castellano saved all the ground and was closer than usual to a slow pace.  As they spun out of the far turn he was in perfect position, but behind a wall of four horses.  Then the leader drifted off the hedge - Castellano said GO and it was all over.  Noble Tune inhaled the leaders and was gone in the blink of an eye!  WHOOO HOOO x3! 

He paid a more than fair $5 and I cashed for $50 making it a certainty that I'd be a profitable winner on the day!  Next up was the featured Grade 1 Kentucky Oaks.  I thought any of six of these talented fillies would be odds-on in any other year, but they were all meeting today.  The one filly I thought would be the favorite - and deservedly so - was Dreaming of Julia.  But I was completely against her.  She had won the Gulfstream Park Oaks by an eye-popping 21 plus lengths.  Her speed figure said she would win the Kentucky Derby by daylight!  Not the Oaks, the Derby!  Her Ragozin speed figure said it was the fastest race by any North American thoroughbred in the HISTORY of racing.  Now, she had been impressive but I don't know that it was THAT impressive.  And I thought for sure she would regress off that effort and be way overbet.  However, I thought even if she regressed some ten points on the Beyer scale she still could win.  But, as I told my son Jeff on the phone before the race, I'd never been convinced she was as good as everyone said and I was willing to take a stand against her.  I thought the "other Petcher" filly (he had four in the race), the unbeaten Unlimited Budget was every bit as talented and looked to be the best fit for the pace picture.  I considered making an Oaks-Derby bet, but even with all six of the top Oaks candidates and a similar number of Derby runners I was up to over $40 and felt that one of the two races would have a big longshot and I'd be better off betting to win as I usually do.  I was so confident in Unlimited Budget I considered upping the investment, but then I asked myself - do I think she has a better chance than Noble Tune.  The answer was no, so I'd stuck with my original investment plan.  As they turned for home the race had played out just as I thought as the two dueling front runners looked to be about to be run down by the stalking Unlimited Budget and Dreaming of Julia was struggling in fourth, no threat to win.  Then out of the blue one of the two "obvious toss-outs" - a Pletcher filly at nearly 40-1 blew by to win.  It was the longest priced winner of the Oaks in some fifty years!  It was anti-climatic when my last pick ran third. 

So for the day I had scored on three of eight, nearly 40% and had a big profit on the day!  Tomorrow is Derby Day and not only am I loaded with Churchill Down picks, but I have several selections for the other four tracks.