Monday May 27 - Memorial Day
Sweep Hollywood's Graded Stakes

DISAPPOINTING OVERALL

On a day where I really thought I'd cap what had been a good weekend with several big stakes scores turned into a very disappointing day when nearly every "best" did not run to expectations.  My first selection was at 1:05 and the second wasn't until 1:47, but I neglected to look closely at my sheet before heading out......the first was an "off the turf" only pick and skies were sunny and we were on the turf at Belmont.  So when I arrived a little past 12:30 I had nearly an hour to kill.  But, I have not been to the Calder Casino for a while so I enjoyed playing the John Wayne slots for a while - wish I could report a big score, but such was not the case.  As the racing began I had doubled the bet on Alura Michele on the turf in Churchill's third race.  She pressed the pace to the far turn but had nothing for the stretch drive.  Miss Montauk reported the same run on the Monmouth turf in my next;  Transplendid made it a trio of identical runs when he too took the overland pressing route over the Belmont sod and then hung through the lane.  I lost my fourth in a row under the Twin Spires when Dapper Dude was second best at 7/2. 

No worries, I thought, I have my BIG bets coming later and am certain to score and even out the winning percentages.  The second at Arlington saw me double the bet on Ann of the Dance - my only added investment of the day in Chicago.  She was a good finisher and had been third in a stakes last year over the Arlington synthetic surface at this one mile distance, so the nw1x allowance test was a big class drop for her.  But as they turned for home she had yet to run a step and was nearly ten lengths back of the long-time leader.  Still, I did have the thought that "stretch runners do very well here" and with that she found another gear.  As is often the case here the late runners seem to run as though they have a rocket pack on their back and she wove though traffic, was clear on the outside at the 16th pole and blew by to win by daylight!  WOW!  Finally a win and though she was the favorite, I'll take the nearly $20 payout. 

At Monmouth My Kinda Party was first-time 2-lifetime and added blinkers for a barn that wins a big 35% with those - no matter, a dull ninth at 2/1.  But I won back-to-back races to get back on track.  First at Arlington where Richesthunderinggal was sent out by Larry Rivelli with E.T. Baird on board.  Especially with front-runners those two are deadly.  And in spite of the closer-bias of the track and the extended seven furlong distance, she went wire to wire to score.  Sadly she was even money.  In the fifth at Belmont I had originally not liked anything that much.  But when I read the comments by DRF handicapper Dave Liftin, he liste Ornelia as his best of the the day.  While her Beyers were consistently better than her rivals, but the 7/1-4-1 record was the kind of record I typically avoid.  Still, I have found that when Dave Liftin lists a "best" he is highly accurate.  OK Dave, I'm on board I thought.  She blew by the field in the lane and scored at a more than fair $4.90 so I cashed for nearly $25, and I snapped my pic with a tribute to Mr. Liftin! 

What followed was a series of six races where I was second twice and third three times without cashing a single ticket.  Dimples was checked on the far turn at 2/1 and was third over the Monmouth inner turf course; Welter Weight was making his first start for Todd Pletcher - a very predictable win angle - and had last been seen last season running second to multiple stakes runner Bodemeister.  He was 6/1 when I bet him but was pounded down to 2/1 favoritism.  Then ran evenly from start to finish to be fourth.  At Churchill Downs Anahauc was my pick in a nw1x sprint.  There was a lot of speed to seemingly set up her big closing kick.  I wrote in my analysis that I was not fond of her five seconds from nine starts, but today it looked like she would run by them in spite of that record.  The race unfolded exactly as I had seen it, and in mid-stretch Anahauc was in full flight to the wire as she collared the surviving front-runner.  But in the final sixteenth it was obvious why she had five seconds on her resume - she looked her rival in the eye and apparently said, "no, no... you go ahead with it" and refused to go by.....second.  The 7th at Belmont was the first of four straight holiday graded stakes; it was the Grade 2 Sands Point for 3-year-old fillies on the turf.  Watsdachances was my pick and the favorite.  She was a multiple stakes winner, including a Grade 3 here last fall.  The problem turned out to be that there was no speed in the race and the front-runner just loped along to the head of the lane and when Watsdachances came with her run the leader had more left in the tank and as gone.  The day was best summed up by the next race - the 8th at Churchill Downs.  If I were honest with all the "best" bets of the day I'd admit that all of the others had some obstacle to overcome, but Blues and Silver was beyond a "BEST" bet.  The race was a starter allowance for runners who'd started for a $16K tag or less.  Two races back he'd run for a $15K tag and won handily as the odds-on favorite.  Prior to that he'd won for a $32K tag, a $25K tag and after that she'd won last out for a $40K tag.  A BIG class advantage.  Better yet, she was 6-for-8 on the turf and her last two races had earned Beyer speed figures better than any LIFETIME figure earned by any of his rivals.  And topping the win angles, he was claimed out of that $15K spot by one of the hottest trainer-owner connections - Michael Maker for Ken & Sarah Ramsey.  She had a pressing running style so she would not have to worry about being dueled into submission on the front end or a victim to the pace as a closer.  She was 1-9 for a long time and deserving of the favoritism.  But then when the gates opened, and she'd floated to a generous 1-2 odds, the rider instead of running just off the hip of the longshot leader, who'd broken just inside of him, decided to take back to nearly the rear of the field.  With no pressure on the leader and caught well back in the field Blues and Silver now WAS a victim to the pace.  He came with his run, but as they turned for home it was clear that the leader was long gone.  Sigh.....racing, there is NO SUCH THING as a SURE thing.  Minutes later where I thought I'd get some of my lost wager back at Hollywood Hard Rockin Girl did not run to her numbers, and the drop from maiden specials to maiden claiming could only net her a third place finish.  WOW. 

The second of the graded stakes at Belmont was up next and of the four it was the only one where I did NOT have a strong opinion of my selection.  I did have a strong opinion AGAINST the favorite and I saw this as a great chance to make a score on a price play.  My pick was Tiz Miz Sue who was the only filly/mare in the Grade 1 Ogden Phipps who had multiple triple Beyer speed figures.  She had trouble in her last to darken her form and I thought I'd have a fair price.  But with ten minutes to post she was the second choice at 2/1.  So much for a price!  But, by post time she'd floated up to better than 4/1 - so now I was intrigued.  The favorite did not run well, which came as no surprise to me and as they turned for home it was Tiz Miz Sue who was running best of all!  WHOOO HOOO at a $10.80 payoff!  I could only wish I'd at least doubled the bet, but was rewarded with nearly $30 return on my investment. 

Five straight disappointments, four of them BIG disappointments followed.  Holiday Soiree was the 4/5 favorite in the listed Red Cross Stakes at Monmouth.  She was dropping out of a third in the Grade 1 Humana Distaff, so this listed spot looked like easy pickin's for her.  She came with a big late run, but when they turned for home she flattened out - 3rd.  Missed at Churchill with a 5/1 price play.  Itallian Rules had won the AOC nw2x condition THREE times already and was a 6x winner at the distance.  Obvious choice in Hollywood's third race.  You guessed it - third at 6/5.  WOW.  Then it was time for my BEST of the Day.... the Grade 1 Acorn going a one-turn mile at Belmont for three-year-old fillies.  I was just mildly concerned that the top sprinter in the country for sophomore fillies, Kauai Katie might be stretching her distance limitations here, but she'd won with authority going seven furlongs.  She appeared to be the controlling speed from the rail and I had "issues" with the other top contenders.  But in spite of breaking sharply jockey John Velazquez did not go to the front.  While it is true a longshot gunned to the front, JR didn't even challenge for it.  I could sort of follow the logic that going the one mile distance he didn't want to engage in a speed duel, but by dropping back into mid-pack he'd taken Katie out of her element....I knew the chances of winning from off the pace were slim, and I was right - third at 8/5.  Disappointing.  It was with a wry smile that I noted the winner was ridden by Rosie Napravnik who had been Kauai Katie's regular rider until two races back....sweet justice.  Right back with my "best" at Monmouth where Bella Castini looked much the best in Monmouth's co-featured Little Silver Stakes.  But on the turn when she was skimming along the rail she had to check.  I don't think she'd have gotten to the leader anyway.  Wow, again. 

Finally some good news.  In the 4th at Hollywood it was the first of their two graded events, the Grade 3 Los Angeles.  Bob Baffert's very lightly raced Fast Bullet looked to be a speed threat.  Off of only two lifetime starts and nearly a year layoff he'd been entered into last fall's Grade 1 Breeders' Cup Sprint.  He'd pressed the pace for half before folding up.  But had come back a month later with a huge 109 Beyer to win a nw2x allowance.  If nothing else he looked to compromise any other front-runner.  But I thought my pick, Comma to the Top, was simply the best horse.  He could out sprint Fast Bullet to the front and continue on to the wire, especially at six furlongs.  So my plan was to double the bet.  But then it was announced that Fast Bullet was scratched.  Suddenly Comma to the Top was not only an added money investment, he became the BEST of the Day at Hollywood as what appeared to be the lone speed.  Just as expected, right to the front and L - O - N - G gone.  Even though he failed to switch leads through the stretch and was running on a "tired leg" he was still open lengths clear, motored down on the wire!  I'll take my winnings and rejoice in FINALLY being right today! 

One more race before leaving, the feature at Churchill Downs - the Grade 3 Winning Colors.  Late this spring I'd read an article about Judy the Beauty making her return to the races at Keeneland.  Her trainer and owner, Wesley Ward said they were targeting the Breeders' Cup.  She won for fun that day and with those remarks in mind I saw this spot as a good step towards that year-end goal.  She came running from just off the pace to challenge at the sixteenth pole, but could not get by - second.  Sigh...... I made my last three bets and headed home for a Memorial Day hotdog on the grill with my sweetie and to watch the replays later. 

The first of those was in the featured Grade 1 at Belmont, the Met Mile.  In the prep for this race, the one-turn mile Grade 3 Westchester I had gone against "horse-for-the-course" Flat Out who was unbeaten at Belmont and went with the lightly raced Cross Traffic.  It was a terrific race and a photo finish that day, but Flat Out proved his affinity for the surface.  Today both were entered back, but unlike the Westchester where there wasn't anyone to press Cross Traffic, today there was plenty of speed to set the table for Flat Out.  I know when to admit I was wrong, so I took him today as a prime-time investment because I KNEW many would ignore his record today as I had last time out.  Sure enough he was a juicy 5/2 when they left the gate.  Flat Out was checked on the far turn, stopping him momentum and maybe, MAYBE that cost him the race, but I don't think he would have won.  Cross Traffic got clear late and looked to be on his way to a Grade 1 win in just his fourth start but he was nailed on the final head bob in another great finish.  In the second of the three late bets Super Ability had wired the Grey Memo Stakes in his last, and because that was a state-bred stakes he was eligible for today's open nw1x allowance test.  He looked to be the main speed and long gone again.  He was Brad Free's "best" bet as well.  The gates sprung open and a 30-1 longshot quarter-horsed to the front.  Super Ability sat just off the leader and looked in a perfect position.  A late runner ran by them both on the turn and Super Ability was all out just to get second.  WOW.....just how many disappointments could there be today? 

The final race of the extended weekend proved to be the very BEST race of the weekend.  It was Hollywood's feature, the Grade 1 Gamely for older fillies & mares going 1 1/8 miles over the turf.  One of my very favorite turf runners, Lady of Shamrock was running and when I'd read she was in today she had been my initial choice.  But then I later read in the days approaching the races that Marketing Mix was also entered.  She had been a big winner for me a couple of times last year and was coming off a close second in the Grade 1 Breeders' Cup last November.  Two others figured prominently, Tiz Flirtatious who was coming off a convincing win in the Grade 2 Santa Ana and Halo Dolly who looked to have a pace advantage over the other three.  The race itself lived up to it's billing, but made it even more so to me was the back stories........

First, Lady of Shamrock.  She had dominated the sophomore turf events on the west coast last season and had been compromised in her 4-year-old debut by a slow pace.  In her second start of 2013 she was again compromised but laid closer to the front and was making a winning move when checked on the rail by the front-runner.  She was put up to first - as my top pick - but both races had earned less than inspiring Beyer figures.  Would she get a pace set-up today?  Did the low numbers indicate that she wasn't quite as good against older?  Second, Tiz Flirtatious......She was a top state-bred turf star and had run second twice with three wins in her last five turf starts.  She had beaten Lady of Shamrock in the Gr 2 Santa Ana in her latest, but had benefitted as a pace-presser and the fact that Lady of Shamrock was also coming off a layoff.  BUT, with untrustworthy Julien Leparoux on board, I would not be betting her.  Third, Halo Dolly.  She was a NINE-time winner on the turf, and 2-for-2 here at Hollywood.  She looked to be right up on the lead, if not THE leader.  And with big-money rider Garrett Gomez she would be very dangerous at a price.  Finally, Marketing Mix.  In her last ELEVEN races she'd only been out of the exacta one time - and that one time was on Kentucky Derby Day last spring when she was MY TOP CHOCE!  Now on that fact alone I was hesitant to make her my pick.  But her last three Beyer speed figures were ALL better than the LIFETIME best figures of every other filly & mare in here.  Still, she had not run since the Breeders' Cup on the first weekend of November.....could she run big today off that kind of layoff?  Well my logic was that she had been entered for the Grade 2 Churchill Downs Distaff Mile on Derby Day so I thought she'd already been prepped for a big race, so technically she was not being readied for her first start; and secondly she had recently un-retired Hall of Fame rider Gary Stevens in the saddle.  I thought he'd have her perfectly placed with every chance to win.  This morning I wavered briefly on my analysis and selection of Marketing Mix when I read that Lady of Shamrock's trainer John Sadler had said she'd never have to be a victim to the pace again as her owners would be sending out a "rabbit" to the race to ensure a good pace.  Hmmmm, but in the end I thought that while this would aid her, she would have to (a) prove she could be better as a 4yo and (b) have to run a career number to beat one of Marketing Mix's "average" races. 

The race unfolded just as I thought, and when they lined up across the course turning for home I knew "it was ON!"  I was a bit surprised that Lady of Shamrock wasn't just flying on the outside to make it three across the track at the sixteenth pole, but Tiz Flirtatious and Marketing Mix laid it down through the final one hundred yards.....PHOTO FINISH!  Check it out.....

 

I thought, in spite of Vic Stauffer's call that Marketing Mix was the winner.....I thought so live and on both replays.  In fact I didn't think it was as close as he, or the TVG announcers said it was.  And I was right.  It provided some salvation to the day that I'd won with a triple investment, I was RIGHT on a "best" bet, and that it had unfolded as I had expected and was a great race as expected....with me winning :) 

For the weekend I had analyzed nearly 175 races; made selections in nearly eighty of them and had nailed TWENTY-SIX WINNERS!  That works out to a big 32.9% win percentage; and that my friends is good handicapping no matter how you cut it.  As I've often said, the secret to winning at the races is not only being a good handicapper, which is obviously very important, but it's in how you manage your money. This weekend, and on this day, my money management had not been as "on" as my winning selections.  Next weekend we turn the page to the third month of the summer season as June rolls around.  The month will provide the first of two BIG highlights as we will be at Churchill Downs on June 15th for "Downs After Dark" on Grade 1 Stephen Foster night - and will in all likelihood see superstar Royal Delta in the Grade 2 Fleur de Lis Stakes.

Saturday May 25

Memorial Day Weekend Part 2

ANOTHER ELEVEN WIN DAY!

It was another excellent day of handicapping, and I was MOST pleased to cash two big tickets on my "BET of the DAY" selections!  I was sad to read in the paper that with the impending head-to-head dates conflict with Gufstream many "insiders" think Calder may close.  I would really hate to see that, but it's sure not a good sign that for the first time in the history of the track they won't have a live Memorial Day card - in fact today's feature is the Memorial Day Handicap, but because it's being run today it's simply the "Memorial Handicap."  And this picture of the grandstand as post time approached on a holiday/Saturday card tells the whole story......

But let's start at the beginning of the day.  I saw on the weather forecast that most of the northeast was going to have a lot of rain so I anticipated a lot of "off-the-turf" races and scratches.  I had over forty selections from seven tracks for today, but didn't know how many would fall victim to the weather.  As it turned out I lost seven picks to the weather, and most of them were in the first 1/3 of the day.  But I had back-to-back double investments to kick off the action. The first was at Churchill Downs where Denali Holy Bull looked to be odds-on for sure.  He had tons of back class, was being dropped from high level claiming events to the very bottom of the ladder, but had been claimed by the trainer for himself, so I figured he wanted the win and if the horse got claimed it was a double pay day.  Denali romped under a hand ride to the wire.  Didn't pay much, but I cashed for nearly $15 and I'm off to a winning start!  I came right back and Calder with what looked t be an obvious winner, but Loveyouallthetime was only second best as he could not run down the loose-on-the-lead front runner.  At Woodbine I doubled the bet on a first time starter in a 2-year-old maiden race, only to see him blow the break and spot the field about five lengths.....sigh.  And then I was second again with and entry (actually ran 2nd - 3rd) at Belmont on their sloppy main track.  FINALLY back in the winner circle in Calder's 4th.  In a wonderful turn of events we were actually ON the turf today.  My original selection had been to double the bet if the race came off the turf, but to go in for a minimum if it stayed on the grass.  With the race staying on the turf my selection, Starship Wildcat, was being bet down to odds-on.  I liked him a lot because his speed figures towered over everyone else's, but his turf races were in five furlong sprints and he'd never gone two turns - today it was a 7 1/2 furlong event.  But with Tomlinson figures saying he could handle the distance and the heaving betting action I decided to up the bet.  Sometimes I'm so smart I could just jump back and kiss myself :)  His odds floated up to 6/5 and he walked with the race on the front end.....easy-peasy-pie!  I celebrated joyously! 

I had the lead at a nice 7/2 in my next at Churchill Downs, but Billybillwillywill could not hold off the favorite - second, again.  My next was a triple investment at Monmouth, where it was also raining, felt so bad for them:  two weeks ago on Opening Day it poured, and today is the big kickoff to Memorial Day weekend (a huge weekend for tourism on the Jersey Shore) and it was pouring (and cold) today.  But it didn't both my selection Pro Prospect who went right to the front and drew off with every stride.  Just WALKED with it and I cashed for over $25.  After an excellent third at 7/1 at Woodbine I rattled off three straight wins!  The first came at Belmont when Love to Run was allowed to go off at a juicy 3/1 and he drew away from the favorite handily - paid $8.40 and I got back over $20; the second was at Churchill where Future Prospect also went off at 3/1 and also drew clear of the favorite - though he had to hold on to win over a late-running longshot.  The even better $8.80 led to another $20+ payout.  And I topped the trifecta of wins when Richies Sweetheart went wire-to-wire at Arlington as a first-time starting two-year-old for top juvenile trainer Larry Rivelli.  So I'm off to another quick start, like Thursday, having won six of my first eleven.  Reality set in over the next two plus hours however........

I was a late-running, very close third in a Calder turf race, disappointing third on the turf at Arlington, then a huge disappointment when Strut the Course was only 4th in the Lady Angela Stakes at Woodbine where not only did she look good to me, but was Jim Bannon's "BEST" of the day.  I swooped to the lead in Calder's 7th with Richard Croy only to see him stop on a dime to finish 8th then Western Tease looked to wire the 7th at Churchill, only to break five lengths behind the field....9th.  At Monmouth I was right there on the turn at 9/5, but couldn't gain any ground, third and then Canadian three-year-old turf filly of the year was second best in the Grade 2 Nassau at Woodbine.  Back-to-back off the board finishes at 5/1 led me to the last loss in the streak, and it was truly "one that got away."  The Grade 2 Sheepshead Bay was still on the very soggy turf at Belmont.  And I had taken that into account when I selected Strathnaver to win.  As they were in the paddock I looked over the runners again and re-read Dave Liftin's analysis.  A horse that really intrigued me was Tannery, who Liftin had commented about, "...the more boggy the turf the better for this guy....."  He was on the board at double-digit odds and just had the look of a runner who would definitely appreciate the 1 3/8 mile distance over soft grass.  My pick SHOULD run well, but had not proven it yet.  I debated back and forth and finally stuck with my original pick.  Bad move.....I was 6th seemingly unable to get any traction on the yielding ground while Tannery relished the off going and scored at better than 10-1....sigh. 

I know I've written it several times over the last several racing seasons, but one thing I am most proud about my handicapping is that I am very confident that I know when I'm right and do not let streaks of races that do not produce winners impact my decision making.  So, my next two decisions are excellent examples of this.  In the Calder feature, the Memorial Day Handicap (I'm still going to call it that!) I thought Csaba looked much the best in spite of coming off a layoff.  He had won a small stakes here and then just missed last August in an off-the-turf Grade 2 at Saratoga, so I'd tabbed him in the Pennsylvania Derby, when I was in Philadelphia in September, only to see him run poorly.  Off that race I dismissed him several times as he rattled off several stakes wins, including two graded stakes at Gulfstream.  His last race had been in the Grade 1 Donn.  So today's field were really soft IF he were ready to run.  The comments in the Form from his connections seemed to tell me they were expecting a big effort, so I planned to go "prime time" on him.  But as the race approached I thought - IN SPITE OF THE RUN OF WINLESS RACES and the "should have" miss at 10/1 at Belmont - I should up the bet on him.  I re-examined the past performances and I did - I upped it to a $30 WIN bet.  I thought he'd go wire to wire, but when a longshot "quarter-horsed" to the lead, my rider Manny Cruz smartly let him have the lead, eased to his outside and tracked him to the far turn.  When the real running began he drew clear as TONS the best!  I WIN!  Good move Mr. Mark. 

Well, that's only half the story.......post time for the Memorial Day Handicap was 4:53 and post time for what was my "BET of the DAY," the Grade 2 American Handicap from Hollywood Park was at 5:01.  But as the previous races concluded at Calder and Hollywood their anticipated post times were a minute apart.  So as I was considering upping the bet at Calder I was simultaneously considering the same move at Hollywood.  Here my choice was Obviously who had been sensational last summer in wiring back-to-back graded turf mile events in just absurdly fast times.  His fractions had been wicked and in both events he'd been all-out to hold off the closers, but he was one fast dude.  His comeback race a month ago had seen him sprint down the hill at Santa Anita - not his best distance, but I thought with his high cruising speed he fit.  He was only second best that day, so I anticipated a big move forward on the stretch to a mile today.  And so he was my "BET of the DAY."  But my plan was to only go "prime time" on him because there was at least one if not two others that would want the lead and could compromise his chances.  I still thought he was simply the best horse, but didn't - originally - want to go "all in" with my investment because of the pace scenario.  But as I was making the decision about Csaba I thought I should go $30 to win on BOTH of them.  Before heading to the window I re-read the comments from Obviously's trainer and jockey.  They seemed exceptionally confident.  I thought to myself that he truly would run away from this field, even if the other front runners wanted to press the issue.  I decided to up the bet....but to $50 TO WIN!  I headed out to the rail to watch Csaba run live as Obviously was heading to the gate at Hollywood.  As Csaba crossed the wire I boogied inside quickly to the simulcast window and they were hitting the far turn with Obviously in front by three AND best of all, the pace was not nearly as fast as he normally runs.  The first thing I heard was track announcer Vic Stauffer call ".....and Obviously is loose on an easy lead turning for home....."  I knew I was in!  WHOOO HOOOO! 

When I watched the replay later three factors led to his big win.  First, he was the inside speed, which I had anticipated.  Second, the closest front running longshot broke swiftly, but was taken back off the pace before they hit the first turn.....why?  I guess he figured it was his best chance to get second money; and third the other front running wannabe was wide, so as he got into gear they were hitting the first turn and he had not chance to challenge the high cruising Obviously on the lead at this point.  I rejoiced with my DOUBLE BEST BET wins before heading home for dinner and to watch the last several races on replay. 

Of the last ten selections on my sheet I scored with two of the first three.  Power Phil was a handy winner in the finale at Woodbine - I doubled the investment and cleared over $25.  And Saw Ow was my choice to rally in a Hollywood maiden special event.  But when the favorite left the rail open down the backside my rider took advantage and took them all the way to the wire.  He paid a nice $8.60 and my ticket is worth over $20 - again!  My best at Monmouth Buffum fulfilled my worst fears - he looked to be a one-turn sprinter, and he had nothing for the stretch as he tried two turns for the first time; Brad Free's "best" at Hollywood, Midnight Crooner was 2nd best at Hollywood.  I was 4th in Arlington's Grade 3 Hanshin Cup and then I really thought I was going to get my big pay day when my "Upset of the Day," Indian Classic went off at 6/1 and just missed at Hollywood....second, again.  I was a very close, but disappointing fifth in the last of three Grade 3's at Arlington with Procurement - tripled the bet.  And so after all these races and wagers, the bottom line for the day came down to the final race.  I was very pleased with the day regardless - I'd hit for well over 30% of my picks and had cashed on my "BET of the DAY" selections.  It was the 8th at Hollywood, an optional claimer on the turf.  I liked Vagabond Shoes who was 6/1 in the program but had lured top rider Rafael Bejarano.  As they came out of the turn heading for home he had dead aim on the favorite......PHOTO FINISH! 

It couldn't have been any closer......and at 3/1 I would have collected over $20, and it would have been a $10+ winning day; instead I lost $9.50....but had a GREAT day!  Looking to continue my winning ways Monday when I'll play four tracks nationally at Calder's simulcast center......one last look at the two big winners on the day:

Thursday May 23 - NINE WINS!

Back On Winning Track

I decided on Wednesday to buy the Racing Form and head out to the races on Thursday.  I flirted with the idea of using one of my many numerical handicapping tools - Sartin pace analysis or Klein speed figures - but in the end decided that I am consistently winning races, and on occasion getting good prices, why change what's working?  The only reason I'm not making money is the way I bet my choices.  And as I've always said, that is half the story of winning at the track.  And I've also said that for me, as much as I'd like to win money, I am more focused on being a good handicapper that picks winners.  So I stuck to my own analysis methods which are based on individual race analysis with different angles for different circumstances.  And today it paid off handsomely!  I won with 45% of my picks - that is impressive! 

I won the first bet of the day when I went against the favorite at Churchill Downs.  I backed Excessiveness who was coming off a powerful maiden win at Keeneland, and while I usually look for last-out maiden winners to regress, trainer Michael Maker has been on such a roll I felt like that last race win (the first start under his care) might be a harbinger of better efforts to come.  I was surprised that the favorite was 3/5 and even looked at her as the race was underway - did I miss something?  But after a glance I felt I made the right choice, and when they hit the top of the lane jockey Rosie Napravnik asked Expressiveness for her best and she blew by the favorite and won under wraps!  I missed when I doubled the bet on the favorite in the Calder opener and King Khalifa broke down on the far turn.  But I bounced right back with two straight wins.  The first was at Belmont when Bella Epoque wired the field just as I anticipated she would......was irritated I didn't invest more.  And then scored at Calder when Ms Bloomfield High became the latest first-off-the-claim winner for Team Calabrese.  The numbers say they win 43%, but it seems a LOT higher here at Calder!  I doubled the bet on her and I am off to a 3-for-4 start to the day! 

I was so surprised when Big Screen did NOT win the 2nd at Belmont.  Not only did he look much the best on paper; not only was he the cover picture-story of the Form; but the field was reduced to three horses with scratches!  He was a fair 2/5 considering only two horses to beat, and I looked at the 2/1 second choice and really thought he was no threat.  Who would have figured that a horse who was WINLESS since 2011 would get the best of the favorite?  And that win two years ago came at 34/1!  Wow....racing, you gotta love it :)  No worries, came right back to score in a 2-year-old MSW at Churchill.  Teardrop was sent off as a low-priced favorite in spite of making her debut, then broke outward and slowly spotting the field about five lengths in a 5 furlong dash.  Rosie Napravnik gathered her, got her into stride, swung four wide on the turn and blew by them all to win by daylight!  When I cashed this ticket  was off to a four-for-six start to the day!

Disappinted when Tiger - another Team Calabrese horse - was second best at Calder, but scored right back at Churchill when Bernata made a dramatic run from the back of the pack to score. 

For the first time today I lost two in a row when I was a very close 6th at Calder and third at Belmont.  The 7th at Calder was going to be my BET of the DAY and I'd decided as I pulled into the parking lot that it was a $50 win bet.....but my pick was scratched.  So was a second horse so before I scratched the race off my list I re-examined the remaining runners.  The Team Calabrese entry, Majestic Express looked much the best of the field.  I doubled down on him and he blew by the leaders turning for home and won easily, motored down on the wire!  WHOOO HOOO! 

Missed two in a row again - back-to-back fourth place runs at Calder and Belmont.  I had one more live play before I planned to head for home, and it turned out to be my third winner locally.  The finale at Calder was scheduled for the turf, but as is the practice at Calder with a beautiful sunny summer day we were OFF the turf because it rained yesterday, wow (as a point of reference it was raining TODAY at Belmont and all the turf races went on as scheduled).....but anyway, Swinger's Party looked appealing to me on either surface.  In two of her last three races she'd faced graded stakes winners Live Lively and Emollient.  And as I wrote in my notes, "....there is no one like that in here...."  She went right to the front and never looked back! 

I had six late bets and headed home to watch the replays on HRTV later.  In the first of the late races Malibu Queen at Belmont became the second selection of mine to break down and not finish the race - what are the odds?  But in my BEST BET of the Day, as it turned out because of the Calder scratch, Ghost Is Clear romped at Churchill Downs.  I initially was skeptical of her, but when I read Byron King's analysis - and she was his best - I was not only going to make her a bet, but because of her big class edge I made her my best.  She was bet down to 4/5, which I thought was a fair price considering.  Collected nearly $30 for the investment :)  I was a very good third at 11/1 in the Churchill finale - good bet, no win.  And then won my last race of the day at Hollywood when Tribal Chatter was the narrowest of photo finish winners at 3/1 as Brad Free's "Best"....the winning ticket was worth more than $40 and insured a winning day!  On the day I won nine of twenty, an amazing 45%!  Off to a good start to the Memorial Day weekend and I'm looking forward to the multiple graded stakes over the weekend.

Preakness Weekend

May 17 - 19

As the weekend approached I was soooooo excited!  For the racing, I was very excited about the back-to-back big days of racing and what I anticipated to be the "Bet of the Month" but even more so it was going to be a "Disney Weekend" as we were heading to Orlando on Saturday to spend three days with "the kids" while finishing off our Disney tickets with two fun-filled days at the theme park. 

Because of the Disney trip, the only chance to spend a full day at the races was on Friday, Black-Eyed Susans Day.  So I handicapped the stakes races on Wednesday and then all of the tracks on Thursday before heading out for a full day at Calder Friday. 

I got there in time to film my video intro and some clips for Saturday's selections then it was to the rail to watch the first pick of the day Noble Prince in the Calder opener.  My pick was Noble Prince who was 2/1 in the program.  He was lightly raced and dropping in class from a $16K 2L spot to today's $10K event.  I thought he'd gun to the front and run away with it.  And indeed he did.  He was comfortably in front as they hit the turn with about a length lead and I swear I heard announcer Bobby Newman call, "....the favorite opens up...." as he drew clear in the lane and won under wraps.  From my vantage point on the rail I did not have a good view of the tote board and as I headed inside I glanced over my shoulder to see what kind of price I could expect.  I didn't have my glasses on, but I could clearly tell that the tote board did NOT show a double-digit odds figure (like 8/5 or 9/5), and although I figured it had to be 2/1, it looked like a 5/1....which of course was not possible, since he had been the program favorite and what I was sure I had heard.  But when I got inside, oh my, yes, it was five-to-one and the pay-out was a huge $13.60.....I cashed for nearly $35 to start the day!  NICE! 

And it was a good thing I did as that score at a little before 1 pm was the last ticket I would cash until nearly 4 pm.....that's a LONG haul my friend.  But through most of that eight race streak - including three seconds - I knew I wasn't taking a financial pounding because of the big score and only three added-money investments in the series.  As is so often the case I was right there with nearly every one of the horses and lost in nearly every way possible.  The first loss was ironic because in m comments on Talent and Channel in the 3rd at Pimlico I wrote, "....looks a very likely short-priced winner in spite of her tendency to quit in deep stretch....."  She was 6/5 and clear with a 16th of a mile to go, still in front with 100 yards to go, but was caught inside the final fifty yards.  In the 6th at Pimlico I broke five lengths behind the field; in the 5th at Belmont I rallied from way back to be second....sigh.... Finally in the third at Churchill I scored again.  It was a Maiden Special for two-year-olds and Rope had finished second in a photo in his debut while over five clear of the show horse.  He dueled to mid-stretch and then drew off at 3/2.  Then came the back-to-back races which basically cost me any chance at a black-type finish betting-wise.  I tripled the bet on Value Trap at Calder and on Drogue at Arlington.  It wasn't like I was seeing anything the crowd wasn't as they were sent off at 1/5 and 8/5....but both struggled home in SIXTH!  Wow.  But then I hit the best streak of the day - FIVE WINS IN A ROW!!!!! 

The opener at Hollywood was DRF Handicapper Brad Free's "best" - Night Dance was a class dropper from the Mike Mitchell barn and was expected to wire the field - easily!  I doubled the bet, but the crowd pounded him down to odds-on - still, I was happy to cash!  On the Black-Eyed Susans card I had two "BEST" bets and it came next in the Jim McKay Turf Sprint.  One of my favorite turf sprinters for the last few years has been Todd Pletcher's Bridgetown.  But after having a clear lead in last year's Derby Day undercard sprint I've been reluctant to bet him.  Today I went against him with the 15-time stakes winning Ben's Cat.  There looked to be a lot of speed to set up his stalk and pounce style.  But as the day wore on I began to second guess myself, and even considered if not changing to Bridgetown at least an exacta.  But with ten minutes to post I convinced myself I'd been right originally and stuck to my original plan.  Sure enough, just as I had envisioned it, there was a speed duel and though Ben's Cat was farther back than I had anticipated he blew by them all inside the final 100 yards to score under wraps - and I had been all over him with a PRIME TIME investment.  Only thing disappointing was that the crowd also bet him heavily into the even-money favorite.  Still, I cashed for over $40. 

Two in a row!  My third win was in another turf sprint.  This on was the 9th and final at Calder.  My pick, Cappachino Gal was stuck on the "Also Eligible" list and would need at least one scratch to get in.  There were four.  And she dominated as she drew off under a chilly hand-ride at 3/5.  Less than five minutes later the second at Hollywood I scored my FOURTH in a row when Pincelada easily went wire to wire.  I was afraid she would run like Talent and Channel earlier because she always seemed to quit late, but I was hoping at 5 1/2 furlongs that would NOT be the case.....she had her lead cut into late, but she was too far gone - WINNER! 

The five-race win streak concluded when I won the 8th at Belmont with Notmyfirstime.  Besides Ben's Cat all the other wins had been minimum investments, but I did double the bet here to collect nearly $20.  Add the two triple-investment losses back-to-back earlier with the betting decisions in the win streak and my chances of winning cash for the day were slim to none.....especially when in what I thought was the "BEST" of the day, Emollient did not win the Black-Eyed Susans Stakes.  Though I truly believe I had the right filly.  She was the most talented and was bet to 4/5 (which I thought was a fair price).  But she likes to be right up on the lead and as the gates sprung open she went straight to her knees and spotted the field at least five lengths.  For all intents and purposes the race was over...she struggled to finish sixth after making a courageous mid-race move to get into contention.  After running second at Churchill I made eleven late bets and headed home. 

Kim and I went out for deep dish pizza (in celebration of my Jenny Craig weigh-in earlier this morning.....after walking over 30 miles, yes THIRTY miles this week I lost weight again to run my total since March 1 to nearly 17 pounds!  So delighted!  When we got home watched the replays.  I was disappointed when my triple investment in the Very One Stakes at Pimlico, Sweet Cassiopiea did no fire - 6th at 9/5, but happy when my "best" at Churchill, Funny Proposition scored at 4/5 with a triple bet.  Right back in the next bet with a third winner at Hollywood with Captain Corrigan (though a minimum bet again!).  Of the last eight I had but a single winner - at Arlington Sugar Kate came from WAAAAYYY back to get her nose down on the wire just in time in the 6th.  I had doubled the bet and scored for nearly $30, but the rest of them were 5th, 6th, 4th, 10th (wow), 6th and 5th.  For the day my handicapping was excellent - ten wins from thirty-one selections - 32% WINS!  But the betting didn't match and I lost a little money.  I wasn't worried however as I was CERTAIN I was going to have a good day Saturday. 

I spent Saturday morning running my car to Goodyear as my back tire had a leak and I needed to replace both back tires - at $350+ per tire, ouch!  And I ran out to Calder to cash my tickets and bet the six stakes races from the Preakness card.  We got away for Orlando a little before one pm and met the kids at the hotel.  Brad's friend Randy got us half-off with our hotel room at the Port Orleans-French Quarter resort where Julie bunked in with us, while Brad and Lauren had their room in another building.  By five pm we were at the Magic Kingdom and having dinner at Tony's (from "Lady and the Tramp!"). 

I didn't know how the first five races went, but I was able to watch my "Best of the Month" - Orb - in the Preakness live via twinspires.com on my phone while having dinner.  And it was stunning to me that not only didn't win, but didn't even hit he board - 4th.  It was a HUGE disappointment.  But, nothing could spoil the evening with the kids at Disney!  The castle show was awesome and the fireworks were spectacularly magical!  See tomorrow's journal for pics and video.  When I got back to the hotel I watched the other five races and was disappointed to only have one win.  But at least the win was in my other "BEST" of the day when Summer Applause came grinding through the stretch to score in the Grade 3 DuPont Distaff. 

Back to the races next week or weekend.  Sunday was a glorious day at the Animal Kingdom park - just the best!  Everything we did was a "first" including getting soaked on the Kali River Rapids ride and then daring to ride the thrilling roller-coaster adventure ride, Expedition Everest!  Be sure to check out the photos from the weekend in tomorrow's journal!

Saturday May 11

Mother's Day Weekend

Opening Day At Monmouth Park

The weekend got off to a great start when Kim and I headed down to the Mai Kai Polynesian Restaurant Friday night.  With Sunday being Mother's Day, Kim likes to go out for dinner to celebrate, but she's not big on fighting the crowds.  We talked about going somewhere for something more than just a meal, so I suggested this venue.  And, we were real "party animals" by booking the late dinner and show!  We didn't get home until nearly 11 pm!  That's pretty awesome for us :)  We arrived about 8 pm, went to the bar, which is like sitting in the hull of an old wooden schooner.  Dinner was at 8:30 with the Polynesian dancers starting their performance at 9:30.  Those girls can move their hips, bringing all kinds of fantasy thoughts to mind!  And the fire dancers were pretty amazing to watch as well.  We had someone take our picture out in the gardens by a tiki statute.  A great way to kick off the weekend. 

Then Saturday I headed out to Calder to play the races.  I was a little unsure about how the day would go as the weather forecast for everywhere, other than at Calder was for not only rain, but heavy showers.  I felt bad for the people who manage the Jersey Shore facility - you always look forward to Opening Day and I'm sure that there would have been a huge crowd at Monmouth.  It was rainy to start the day, and then monsoons late in the card really put a damper, I'm sure on the crowd.  But they had a record opening day handle, so that was a positive.  My first two selections were the openers at Churchill and Monmouth.  I doubled the bet on Miss Anna Destiny at Churchill and had a minimum bet on Call Me Sweetheart at Monmouth.  As I walked away from the teller he called me back because he thought he'd given me the wrong track....sure enough, he'd given me Pimlico instead of Monmouth.  We made the exchange and I settled into a front row seat in the "Winner's Edge" simulcast area to watch my races.  I had the #1 horse at Churchill and she broke slowly, rushed up - not a good sign - then faded as they hit the turn.  A stretch duel developed and then it hit me.....I had the #1 AT MONMOUTH!  At Churchill I had #2 Miss Anna Destiny and SHE was battling through the stretch.  AND she WON!  What a great realization!  And a winner to kick off the day!  Whooo hooo! 

Less than five minutes later they broke from the gate at Monmouth.  The main track at the Jersey Shore seems to always play to speed, and what I liked about Call Me Sweetheart was that she had the rail and appeared to be the quickest of the speeds.  Sure enough as the gates opened, who was immediately in front? 

That's right, #1 Call Me Sweetheart.  She opened up early and was never threatened, crossing the line at least five clear of the runner-up.  She paid a nice $7.40 and I cashed my two tickets for nearly $40. 

A very nice way to start the day.  And then the parade of seconds began.....yes, just like Thursday.  At Belmont I had Lubango, the even money favorite.  He was confidently ridden just off the lead and you could tell that the rider felt he had the field measured.  He restrained the horse to the top of the lane, let him go, but couldn't run with the rail horse who rallied to draw clear late.....second.  At Calder I had a nice price play with Rhubarb Sauce at 6/1 on the grass.  Led to the final 100 yards then gave way to the favorite, second again.  At Monmouth I knew I was in trouble when my pick tried to rally at 4/5 - 3rd over he speed-favoring track.  At Churchill I moved quickly into the lead as they turned for home with Poliziano at 2/1, but could not withstand the late rally of the winner - SECOND AGAIN!  I tripled the bet on Firstotheline at Monmouth.  She had been a good second in her debut at Gulfstream for Todd Pletcher AGAINST THE BOYS, then came back to draw off convincingly while the runner-up was nine clear of the show.  Joe Bravo had the mount - looked like an obvious winner.  She broke slowly, was checked halfway down the back side, made a move into the lane, then was stopped behind a wall of horses, and finally had to shift out five wide to rally.  It was amazing she got third.  At Arlington the losing continued when J.Pa was the 8/5 favorite but no closer than 5th.  Belmont, SECOND again at 3/2 and then back-to-back longshots who ran to their prices.....6th at 7/1 and 7th at 5/1.  I closed the long winless streak with another main-track-only pick at Belmont who was a fair 7/2, only to run 5th.  I was questioning my time to stay at the races when FINALLY I cashed a ticket.  I was back at Monmouth and it was Pletcher-Bravo again.  Silver Lining John was the 4/5 favorite based on his debut at Gulfstream where he was best-of-the-rest second at even money.  He rated right off the leader to the top of the lane, battled to inside the 16th pole and then edged clear. I didn't care he only paid $3.60, I was glad to be able to cash a ticket, any ticket! 

I came right back to win my second in a row at Calder when Strong Fire rallied through the stretch to be up in time at 2/1.  I cashed those two tickets for over $30 and thought I was on my way to a comeback. 

Well, yes, but not yet......At Belmont another Todd Pletcher debut runner was 5/2 - broke slowly and was third on the wire.  At Calder I doubled the bet on Street Girl who was half of an entry on the turf.  But into the stretch it was her entry-mate who was on a clear lead, only to be caught in the final strides by the favorite.  That double investment at 2/1 would have been a nice payoff!  And I was no where to be found at Arlington in their 5th with a price play.  But finally I hit paydirt again, and this time made a wise investment decision.  At Belmont my pick was #1 Joe Alan, and my comments were .... "...confidently raised first off the claim, must only run down the faint-hearted favorite...."  Because I was afraid there was the chance the favorite would wire he field I was only in for the minimum.  As I walked to the window to bet I was surprised to see Joe Alan was the favorite; must be because Joel Rosario is on board.  Then I noticed, the front-running program favorite scratched.  Quickly looked at the Form - hmmm, looks like Joe Alan has the rail and the front to himself.  So I doubled the bet.  And he was an easy wire-to-wire winner!  GO ME!  Got back over $20! 

 

My pick at Churchill was way to far back early in the 8th, late running fifth, and then I won again.  But this time a not-so-bright decision.  #4 Micromanage was the 8/5 program favorite, and I thought deservedly so.  He'd won impressively in his Saratoga debut for Todd Pletcher.  Both of those facts said he had some talent.  In his next two starts he took on some of the best of his generation with back-to-back starts in graded stakes.  Today he was back into a non-winners-of-one allowance.  MUCH easier spot.  I planned to triple the bet.  I looked at the TV monitor and it was a shot of the finish line where it was POURING. The picture didn't change for the longest time....no paddock shots, no horses coming onto the track.  And now it was four minutes to post.  All the while the #1 was being pounded in the wagering at odds-on and Micromanage, who I thought was easily the obvious pick was 4/1!  The rain, the cold betting action, and no horses on the track all spooked me.  I thought, I'd be foolish to back away if he wins - but all the signs are saying this is NOT a good bet.  I compromised with myself.  I made a double investment.  The horses came on to the track and went right to the gate.  Right away Micromanage could not find any way to save ground and was at least five wide through the first turn.  All the way down the backstretch he could not get over, still wide.  Wide through the final turn and at least five wide into the lane.  He lost ground but was running late - P H O T O  F I N I S H!!!!!!

When the photo came up, I was the winner!  NOW I wish I'd stuck with my bet.  But honestly, I still think it was the smartest thing to do.  Collected nearly $35, so I'm cool with that.  I ran 4th, 3rd, and 8th with my next three.  I had two added investment races coming up and then with two weather-related scratches it was going to be nearly an hour until the next pick, so I made them my last two on-track investments.  First up at Hollywood, the Came Home Stakes.  Let Em Shine looked like the clear controlling speed and to be long gone from the rail.  Never threatened at even money.....cashed for over $20! 

Minutes later Work All Week looked easily best at Arlington.  He'd won his last two starts by a combined nearly twenty lengths in wire-to-wire fashion with clearly the best pace times, so I tripled the bet figuring he'd be a short-odds favorite.  Until right up to post time he was 2/1 and 5/2....I was licking my lips savoring a nice score.  Some of the crowd came to their senses and he went off at 8/5.  LONG GONE!  WHOOO HOOOO.  My ticket was worth nearly $40! 

When I got home I was able to watch the rest of the races on HRTV.  Scandalo ran second at Belmont.....Prime Number ran SECOND at Hollywood; Jersey Kiss was 5th at Monmouth (despite having won 3 of his last 4 and being 5/4-0-1 at the distance...wow);  And then it was my best bet of the day......Scarlett Strike in the Grade 3 Senorita Stakes on the grass at Hollywood.  She broke from post 8 and could never save any ground going a flat mile.  Late running, oh-so-close second....yes, S E C O N D again! 

I had posted four picks on Facebook as "Bests" of the day.  THREE of them scratched and now a photo-finish second :(  But the day ended on a high note when at Arlington I won again.  Earlier on the card I had picked a horse because it was a debut runner for trainer Larry Rivelli who wins 21% with those; and he had one of my favorite front-running riders in E.T. Baird on board - and they win 32% together.  That one scratched, but here in the 11th, first time starting She's Intoxicated was in the gate.  The crowd wasn't fooled and saw the same thing I did....she was the 3/2 favorite and won handily!  My ticket is worth a nice $25! 

And in my final play of the day, No Silent won the 8th at Hollywood.  It wasn't easy however.  It was a turf sprint and she broke slowly, came up the rail, was blocked into the stretch.....couldn't move outside, then at the 16th pole a seam opened between horses and top rider Rafael Bejarano pushed her through.  She rallied but so was a clear-running closer on the outside.....PHOTO FINISH!  But I was in front on the wire.....YES!  I had doubled the bet and some how the crowd allowed her to go off at 2/1 in spite of the fact that in three different appearances HERE at this distance on this course she was coming off a layoff, like today; with Bejarano, like today; and those had produced two wins and a photo-2nd.  I'll take the money! 

For the day I closed with a nice flurry of winners to push my totals for the day to ten out of 32 for a nice 31% win rate.  I nearly got back to even, and almost any one of the NINE runner-up finishes on the day would have put me over the top.  I'm sure if the "BEST" bets of the day had run I would have been a profitable player on the day.....shoot, just the Scarlet Strike near-miss would have made me a break-even for the day.  But, after the oh-so-slow start, it turned out to be a good day with a lot of winning picks!